Current Affairs Ukraine

[bluestevon]

I can kinda see that happening for the Donbas region and of course Crimea is part of the Russian federation already (Koff), however both the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are Ukranian and they will want them back.

That’s the sticky bit - would Ukraine concede the Donbas (probably IMO) and would Ukraine concede Kherson and Zaporizhia (no chance). This means that Putin will have an ongoing fight on his hands for these regions…or will he?

Is this brinkmanship from Putin to entice Ukraine into negotiations given the overwhelming force projection and threat of tactical nukes? And would he then be prepared to return Kherson and Zaporizhia if Ukraine accepts the Donbas joining the Russian federation?

Who knows at this stage - if Ukraine decides to battle it out then it will place Putin in a tight spot. If he does opt for the tactical Nuke option then it’s game over for us all, Russia included.

Donbass and Lugansk are the two key regions for Russia, Kherson and Zap are complicated due to importance to secure Crimea from the Russian perspective. Would they be willing to give up both to fully secure Donbass/Crimea - I'm guessing yeaif it came with international/Ukraine recognition of those regions.

What happens if those where agreed on though then gets further complicated by issues on NATO membership, reperations and ofc criminal tribunals.


As I said earlier it's hard to know if this is escalation towards further escalation or an attempted escalate to de-escalate. I hope the latter.

Ultimately the decision on battling it out or not for Ukraine will be made in Washington.

 

[tsubaki]

Absolutely, I meant in terms of wedding himself, come hell or high water, to a conflict he can't win whilst systematically burning down every off ramp.

Edit: Shoigu's figures stated just under 6000 casualties but that 90% of them were now back on operations. If that's true, they must be fighting with cap guns out there.

There are several ways he can win still, this being one of them.

 

[jaspercabbage]

Given that they started off with over 100k troops, and Shoigu reckons there have been only 6k casualties, why does Putin need to call up any reservists as his invading army is still mostly intact?

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Donbass and Lugansk are the two key regions for Russia, Kherson and Zap are complicated due to importance to secure Crimea from the Russian perspective. Would they be willing to give up both to fully secure Donbass/Crimea - I'm guessing yeaif it came with international/Ukraine recognition of those regions.

What happens if those where agreed on though then gets further complicated by issues on NATO membership, reperations and ofc criminal tribunals.


As I said earlier it's hard to know if this is escalation towards further escalation or an attempted escalate to de-escalate. I hope the latter.

Ultimately the decision on battling it out or not for Ukraine will be made in Washington.

It will be an interesting couple of months ahead.

Watch for how the US responds in relation to the next allocation of funding and weaponry as that should provide an insight on how the US sees this playing out.

Ukranians are already training on F-15/F-16’s and the US is mulling over delivery of M1A1 MBT’s. NASAM’s and IRUS-T’s already being deployed.

If Ukraine decides not to negotiate and continue to take the fight to Russia then it gets worrying. Big questions are

Will the extra troops make a difference?

Will conscription/mobilization create internal pressures within Russia that force a change of approach?

Does he go nuclear or does he target more civilian infrastructure?

We can all speculate but other than that we’re just spectators as this all unfolds.

 

[bluestevon]

I would suggest there is zero chance of Ukraine accepting anything apart from a full Russian withdrawl, and why should they.

Not only are Russia facing a commited and capable force they are facing this dragging on for years and being as acceptable as Northern Ireland is to Southern Ireland.

I think ultimately Ukraine will accept what they are told to accept by the US mate, their training, equipment, resupply and intelligence are all dependant entirely on the US in reality.

From a purely Ukranian stand point at what stage does half a country in rubble, tens upon tens of thousand dead with no end in sight the majority being the future of the country in terms of young men and an economy in total ruins, what stage does that outweigh chasing a possibly impossible goal.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Given that they started off with over 100k troops, and Shoigu reckons there have been only 6k casualties, why does Putin need to call up any reservists as his invading army is still mostly intact?

They lie constantly maybe they have too. I believe they had closer to 150k troops with at least 1/3 of those either killed or injured which won't be able to be come back into the fray. They have to mobilize but they will be a few months from being full strength to bolster the existing troops that do not have necessary provisions and support to be credible. If Russia ever figures out how to give better logistical support they would have had better success in their special campaign. Both sides will have regrouped and Ukraine will have longer range weapons which will be a game changer. It will escalate in a bad way.

Notice the Black Sea fleet have been silent and have moved out of the area especially all the Submarines which pounded civilian targets. This will be a quagmire and a drain to the Russian economy as things break they will not be easily fixed. I believe when Ukraine attacks Crimea tactical nukes will be used by Russia by then it will effect us all sadly. We are all just a captive audience with opinions. Ukraine won't stop this war now due to much anger for the infrastructure and civilian causalities.

 

[bluestevon]

It will be an interesting couple of months ahead.

Watch for how the US responds in relation to the next allocation of funding and weaponry as that should provide an insight on how the US sees this playing out.

Ukranians are already training on F-15/F-16’s and the US is mulling over delivery of M1A1 MBT’s. NASAM’s and IRUS-T’s already being deployed.

If Ukraine decides not to negotiate and continue to take the fight to Russia then it gets worrying. Big questions are

I think the first points decide the last one, ehst military aid almost tells them if they're bring backed to push on or told to start negotiating.

Will the extra troops make a difference?

To s degree yes, if only allowing them to free up other units as these replace those on internal security, or reserves duty. But that all takes time

Will conscription/mobilization create internal pressures within Russia that force a change of approach?

Won't be popular, can tell you that first hand, but won't see it short term causing a change in approach - over time depending on what occurs that can change a lot - especially if it extends to second wave after the initial 300k that's when you'll be bringing in people who REALLY don't want to go there - the first wave will contain a big percentage of 'proper' ex-military who won't exactly be happy but will 'suck it up' so to speak.

A second wave wont have that 'luxury'

Does he go nuclear or does he target more civilian infrastructure?

Short of direct NATO troops on the ground I don't forsee any nuclear use. But do think you'll see a marked increase on strikes on infrastructure and other targets so far they've not been targeting and on a much bigger scale, will they role out the air force on mass and start carpet bombing western Ukraine cities etc - very worrying times.

We can all speculate but other than that we’re just spectators as this all unfolds.

Yup can't argue with that.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

The problem they have though is that they are dependent on arms supplies from abroad for the foreseeable future, as well as funds to keep the state going. No-one wants this to go on for years, and if a realistic way out emerges (however little faith can be placed in the participants) they are going to be effectively made to accept it.

On top of the fact that we are talking about an occupoed people who have seen the invaders rape, murder and rob there loved ones you are also talking about an occupying force that has expressed that it wants to remove the US as the worlds leading power. You have previously conqured states by Russia such as Poland and the baltic states that won't just accept or trust what Putin says, no matter how much people here might want it. There will be an ongoing level of support and a suitably pissed of people to ensure that if Russia do not pull out they'll be in a situation akin to Vietnam or Afghanistan but facing a more capable opponent.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

FWIW this is many, many times worse than Afghanistan was - in that entire war the USSR lost just under 15000 men in just over 9 years, and even Shoigu's figures say they've lost a third of that in nine months.

Spot on, this will be much worse than Afghan was for them or Vietnam for the US.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Given that they started off with over 100k troops, and Shoigu reckons there have been only 6k casualties, why does Putin need to call up any reservists as his invading army is still mostly intact?

You cannot trust a word that they say, sadly.

 

[Moomin]

If Putin bombs This Morning and takes out Schofield for Q jumping we can sit down and hold peace talks.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I think ultimately Ukraine will accept what they are told to accept by the US mate, their training, equipment, resupply and intelligence are all dependant entirely on the US in reality.

From a purely Ukranian stand point at what stage does half a country in rubble, tens upon tens of thousand dead with no end in sight the majority being the future of the country in terms of young men and an economy in total ruins, what stage does that outweigh chasing a possibly impossible goal.

I think you are living in cuckoo land if think that Ukrainains will roll over for anyone.

As aluded to in a previous post, even if NATO backed off I reckon you'd see a revamping of the Baltic Alliance with Poland et al. These people have seen it all before and joined an alliance such as NATO to protect themselves from Russian imperialism. There is zero chance that any of these states will trust what Putin says, and they should not.

 

[bluestevon]

I think you are living in cuckoo land if think that Ukrainains will roll over for anyone.

As aluded to in a previous post, even if NATO backed off I reckon you'd see a revamping of the Baltic Alliance with Poland et al. These people have seen it all before and joined an alliance such as NATO to protect themselves from Russian imperialism. There is zero chance that any of these states will trust what Putin says, and they should not.

Not a chance in earth the US would risk article 5 being triggered by allowing Poland or the Baltics to go it alone mate.

The Baltic countries literally have minuscule armies, Poland has stripped it's reserves and some of it's front line stuff to send to Ukraine already, relying on the US to 'upgrade' what they've given away

Poland and the Baltic countries have been very very vocal, but it's easy to bark when you know you won't have to bite mate - acting without US say so, risks NATO and the EU imploding on divisions, something I don't see the US allowing to occur.

I won't go into the history you allude to btw I'll keep it on Ukraine

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

If you consider the MACRO situation and China's ambitions to use Russia to achieve a dominant position then you can see that Putins actions have created a perfect opportunity for the US achieve a long suspected aim of splitting the Russian Federation and removing the threat and nuisance that Putin has brought and then turn their attention to China. This is no doubt a part of the concerns and worries Xi discussed with Putin.

I suspect the reason that Putin and his mates are so rattled and thrashing through the media is because they now realise that they have put themselves into a trap i.e. if the US, NATO or even just the Baltic states continue to support Ukraines defence of its lands they cannot win.

If Putin retreats he is done for and any notion that might remain of Russia being a superpower outside of threatening to destroy themselves and the world with nukes, is gone. There would be a growing push from Russian Federation states that Putins regime has robbed of their resources and left in poverty.

It is almost check mate and I can understand why they are so desperate.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

If you consider the MACRO situation and China's ambitions to use Russia to achieve a dominant position then you can see that Putins actions have created a perfect opportunity for the US achieve a long suspected aim of splitting the Russian Federation and removing the threat and nuisance that Putin has brought and then turn their attention to China. This is no doubt a part of the concerns and worries Xi discussed with Putin.

I suspect the reason that Putin and his mates are so rattled and thrashing through the media is because they now realise that they have put themselves into a trap i.e. if the US, NATO or even just the Baltic states continue to support Ukraines defence of its lands they cannot win.

If Putin retreats he is done for and any notion that might remain of Russia being a superpower outside of threatening to destroy themselves and the world with nukes, is gone. There would be a growing push from Russian Federation states that Putins regime has robbed of their resources and left in poverty.

It is almost check mate and I can understand why they are so desperate.

Checkmate. Military journals have suggested such. China is rising will become a behemoth but until that time Russia's rhetoric will be all it has. China always plays the long game. Don't be surprised if Taiwan isn't the only focus they will look north eventually. Strange bedfellows.