Current Affairs Ukraine

[Dixieslaces]

He is a mouthpiece in the same way Nigel Farage is in the UK. Great for sensationalist comments but hopefully not representing the actual position.

Did China really say that. Putin and Xi Jinping just met and a couple of days later, this. I'd read into this that China doesn't care as long as does them no harm. I'll be checking in on Taiwan news after this.

This is the concern that China sees its opportunity.

 

[tsubaki]

I can see this all back-firing on Putin. Russia has just announced that the contracts of all serving military forces in Ukraine will be extended until the new partial mobilization period has ended, i.e indefinately.

That is gonna seriously piss-off those troops currently in Ukraine who were coming to the end of their contracts. Also they will soon realize that the Donbas, Kherson and Zaparicha are not really Russian, not really their homeland and certainly not worth dying for.

As with everything about this war, its really hard to judge what the Russian leadership are thinking from their public statements - we in the West have seen this as an escalation based on the extreme words and phrased used (as no doubt was the intention), but it is possible to read into his (and Shoigu's) comments that they also in the statements have set clear limits about the "special military operation" (and therefore put apparent substance on what was apparently said to Modi and Erdogan at the SCO about ending the war as soon as possible).

Putin did not talk about regime change for once, said the main aim of the SMO was to liberate Donbas (which is at least the second time he's said that recently), plus Shoigu said that the mobilization was to control the 1000km frontline and the liberated (occupied) territories, and that those mobilized would be serving in the territory of Russia (so after the "referendums" have delivered their result).

Obviously the usual provisos should be borne in mind when assessing their statements, but we in the West should be prepared for them declaring "mission accomplished" after the referendums no doubt declare that they want to join Russia. Would the limited coalition against them hold up? Would the rest of the world accept the considerable economic costs continuing if the aggressor side appears to offer to stop fighting? I have my doubts on both.

 

[Yarrgh]

As with everything about this war, its really hard to judge what the Russian leadership are thinking from their public statements - we in the West have seen this as an escalation based on the extreme words and phrased used (as no doubt was the intention), but it is possible to read into his (and Shoigu's) comments that they also in the statements have set clear limits about the "special military operation" (and therefore put apparent substance on what was apparently said to Modi and Erdogan at the SCO about ending the war as soon as possible).

Putin did not talk about regime change for once, said the main aim of the SMO was to liberate Donbas (which is at least the second time he's said that recently), plus Shoigu said that the mobilization was to control the 1000km frontline and the liberated (occupied) territories, and that those mobilized would be serving in the territory of Russia (so after the "referendums" have delivered their result).

Obviously the usual provisos should be borne in mind when assessing their statements, but we in the West should be prepared for them declaring "mission accomplished" after the referendums no doubt declare that they want to join Russia. Would the limited coalition against them hold up? Would the rest of the world accept the considerable economic costs continuing if the aggressor side appears to offer to stop fighting? I have my doubts on both.

Kind of, and no.

What is left of Ukraine will be bolstered in terms of military capability but once people start going cold or hungry, they are not going to be happy with millions and billions off to support a halted conflict.

If Ukrainian forces keep up the assault in occupied areas post referendums I believe that Russia will be hitting back in a far more destructive manner. If Russia make any conciliatory noises post referendums then it could really splinter support for Ukraine against them.

 

[bluestevon]

As you have highlighted recently, you have more internal knowledge due to your, IIRC being located in the east? In your opinion and this is not inflammatory but a genuine question,

No worries mate, I'll try to answer best as I can, but honestly it's just my own thoughts, speculation based on various sources and based on 'history repeating itself'

Do you believe, that his assertions of the Ukraine being occupied by forces outside of Russia,

No I don't believe it's occupied by external forces (not counting Russia ofc), influenced though definitely

hold any weight at all, there is I understand, an opinion held by a few that the Obama administration had factored in a tactical benefit of Ukraine being a NATO member and thus creating a "puppet" governmentw with Zelensky(controversial and tin foil hat firmly on head!) at the head of it, given his lack of any political background, was he a a "placement"? its not like the US have not done this type of thing before.

The 2014 coup/revolution was definitely influenced in the US, as was the government that came into power post Maidan, Victoria Neuland then secretary of state is on record discussing effectively who'd be 'our boy' - in a leaked confidential conversation. and it played out exactly as she stared it should.

But that was years before Zelensky came into office, and he's kinda originally the figurehead for Kolomoisky - so no way imo a US plant etc (the public face of Kolomoisky yes though) although think his support kinda got supplanted by western support and influence over time. Kolomoisky is as bad as any of the first wave Russian oligarchs imo, finger in every pie and a big source of the corruption inside the country

Are the baffling words of Biden and Truss, in the war rhetoric/sabre rattling perspective, a dangerous escalation and have provoked Putin even further, a dangerous game in my mind given the geo political machinations are way beyond my brain to fully comprehend.

I don't think a lot of the western leaders understand the situation as well as they should (Truss is an idiot and Biden arguably verging on senility) both I'd guess are more enacting what they're advised too by 'deep state' and think tanks - Europe when you look at it is lacking a figure with political nous or gravitas as it Canada, US, Australia, I look around and don't see a Merkel, Schroeder, or even though I hated her (a Thatcher) or Bush Sr etc, guess the closest would be Macron but right now he's looking impotent on everything - the European policy rather than coming from the France/Germany traditional decision makers seems to be driven by the newer more eastern countries (Poland, Baltics etc)

Provocation is a tricky one to answer as it just sounds like I'm excusing what happened because of it, so I'll just say many of the very very astute realists like Mearscheimer, Stephen Walt, Waltz, the now sadly deceased Cohen all predicted a long time ago before Crimea that Ukraine would be the flashpoint of a new conflict if certain things continued, all the way back to Keenan it was understood in essence. So what's happening was not only predicted, but the events that would lead to it where clearly spelled out by these and others.

Realism is founded on not looking at the world as you'd like or want it to be but as it actually is and policies and decisions follow from that basis

Will Putin act on his assertions?

One thing I don't think Putin does is bluff mate, which is why it's very worrying

Markov tone was on the defensive but assertive side and as you say losing his Daughter recently has given him just cause to be slightly unhinged in his assertions, are they really looking to escalate this, in spite of his protestations to the opposite?

He's a crackpot

What line of succession does Putin currently have in place that would see him replaced by a similar mindset in the event of his demise?

Simply put there isn't one remotely in place, should it happen it'd likely be 'the strongest' seizing power, which would mean a very hard liner. But Putin has pretty much complete control throughout all structures and there's nobody even in the background as a viable option IMO.
No chance of it being one the west would like to see there, Russians still remember Yeltsin far too well for it to be tolerated again (didn't fully understand just how hated Yeltsin is in Russia till I lived here - Gorbachev too is really not well remembered)

Sorry lots of questions, as you would imagine, given the brinkmanship of the Russians and dare I say it Truss and brain dead Biden!

No worries

*edit, it was Dugin, not Markov. So Markov is a nut job then?

Yup a grade A one

 

[bluestevon]

This is the concern that China sees its opportunity.

One thing I would say about China, and it's a comfort - is that they are very long term in terms of planning, not reactionary - so I don't see them trying to be opportunistic due to a sudden alteration in landscape.

China will have there long term plan in regards to Taiwan and I don't think they'll divert from it suddenly

 

[devogue]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

As with everything about this war, its really hard to judge what the Russian leadership are thinking from their public statements - we in the West have seen this as an escalation based on the extreme words and phrased used (as no doubt was the intention), but it is possible to read into his (and Shoigu's) comments that they also in the statements have set clear limits about the "special military operation" (and therefore put apparent substance on what was apparently said to Modi and Erdogan at the SCO about ending the war as soon as possible).

Putin did not talk about regime change for once, said the main aim of the SMO was to liberate Donbas (which is at least the second time he's said that recently), plus Shoigu said that the mobilization was to control the 1000km frontline and the liberated (occupied) territories, and that those mobilized would be serving in the territory of Russia (so after the "referendums" have delivered their result).

Obviously the usual provisos should be borne in mind when assessing their statements, but we in the West should be prepared for them declaring "mission accomplished" after the referendums no doubt declare that they want to join Russia. Would the limited coalition against them hold up? Would the rest of the world accept the considerable economic costs continuing if the aggressor side appears to offer to stop fighting? I have my doubts on both.

I can kinda see that happening for the Donbas region and of course Crimea is part of the Russian federation already (Koff), however both the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are Ukranian and they will want them back.

That’s the sticky bit - would Ukraine concede the Donbas (probably IMO) and would Ukraine concede Kherson and Zaporizhia (no chance). This means that Putin will have an ongoing fight on his hands for these regions…or will he?

Is this brinkmanship from Putin to entice Ukraine into negotiations given the overwhelming force projection and threat of tactical nukes? And would he then be prepared to return Kherson and Zaporizhia if Ukraine accepts the Donbas joining the Russian federation?

Who knows at this stage - if Ukraine decides to battle it out then it will place Putin in a tight spot. If he does opt for the tactical Nuke option then it’s game over for us all, Russia included.

 

[Yarrgh]

If Shoigu said carrots were orange, I'd check the colour chart against the parsnip he handed me before he accused me of swapping it for a cabbage.

 

[bluestevon]

As with everything about this war, its really hard to judge what the Russian leadership are thinking from their public statements - we in the West have seen this as an escalation based on the extreme words and phrased used (as no doubt was the intention), but it is possible to read into his (and Shoigu's) comments that they also in the statements have set clear limits about the "special military operation" (and therefore put apparent substance on what was apparently said to Modi and Erdogan at the SCO about ending the war as soon as possible).

Putin did not talk about regime change for once, said the main aim of the SMO was to liberate Donbas (which is at least the second time he's said that recently), plus Shoigu said that the mobilization was to control the 1000km frontline and the liberated (occupied) territories, and that those mobilized would be serving in the territory of Russia (so after the "referendums" have delivered their result).

Obviously the usual provisos should be borne in mind when assessing their statements, but we in the West should be prepared for them declaring "mission accomplished" after the referendums no doubt declare that they want to join Russia. Would the limited coalition against them hold up? Would the rest of the world accept the considerable economic costs continuing if the aggressor side appears to offer to stop fighting? I have my doubts on both.

If we look at the SMO intended goals as stated they where effectively the following.

Protection/liberation of the pro Russian regions, mainly Donetsk, Lugansk - something they've came close to achieving strategically.

De- Nazification of the Ukraine, initially supposed to be destroying the far right military units and removing the influence if such groups from Government - on the first they part achieved on the second they failed and as the fsr right ideals are inextricably linked with Patriotism then overall they've certainly failed big time and anti Russian pro far right sentiment in Ukraine is at an all time high. To achieve that goal now from a Russian perspective would entail removing the government and literally having to control the entire country - not going to happen.

De-NATOing Ukraine, well a NATO influence pre war has been replaced now by Ukraine being in all but name a NATO armed forces, equipment, training, strategy, logistics are all now no longer Soviet leftovers but fully NATO. To achieve that goal now is impossible without the full destruction and dismantling of the entire Ukranian armed forces, and that's not remotely possible with 200k troops or indeed 500k

I'm just going off the stated goals of the SMO here, not getting into supposition about hidden aims speculation or hearsay.

 

[Dixieslaces]

No worries mate, I'll try to answer best as I can, but honestly it's just my own thoughts, speculation based on various sources and based on 'history repeating itself'


No I don't believe it's occupied by external forces (not counting Russia ofc), influenced though definitely


The 2014 coup/revolution was definitely influenced in the US, as was the government that came into power post Maidan, Victoria Neuland then secretary of state is on record discussing effectively who'd be 'our boy' - in a leaked confidential conversation. and it played out exactly as she stared it should.

But that was years before Zelensky came into office, and he's kinda originally the figurehead for Kolomoisky - so no way imo a US plant etc (the public face of Kolomoisky yes though) although think his support kinda got supplanted by western support and influence over time. Kolomoisky is as bad as any of the first wave Russian oligarchs imo, finger in every pie and a big source of the corruption inside the country


I don't think a lot of the western leaders understand the situation as well as they should (Truss is an idiot and Biden arguably verging on senility) both I'd guess are more enacting what they're advised too by 'deep state' and think tanks - Europe when you look at it is lacking a figure with political nous or gravitas as it Canada, US, Australia, I look around and don't see a Merkel, Schroeder, or even though I hated her (a Thatcher) or Bush Sr etc, guess the closest would be Macron but right now he's looking impotent on everything - the European policy rather than coming from the France/Germany traditional decision makers seems to be driven by the newer more eastern countries (Poland, Baltics etc)

Provocation is a tricky one to answer as it just sounds like I'm excusing what happened because of it, so I'll just say many of the very very astute realists like Mearscheimer, Stephen Walt, Waltz, the now sadly deceased Cohen all predicted a long time ago before Crimea that Ukraine would be the flashpoint of a new conflict if certain things continued, all the way back to Keenan it was understood in essence. So what's happening was not only predicted, but the events that would lead to it where clearly spelled out by these and others.

Realism is founded on not looking at the world as you'd like or want it to be but as it actually is and policies and decisions follow from that basis



One thing I don't think Putin does is bluff mate, which is why it's very worrying



He's a crackpot


Simply put there isn't one remotely in place, should it happen it'd likely be 'the strongest' seizing power, which would mean a very hard liner. But Putin has pretty much complete control throughout all structures and there's nobody even in the background as a viable option IMO.
No chance of it being one the west would like to see there, Russians still remember Yeltsin far too well for it to be tolerated again (didn't fully understand just how hated Yeltsin is in Russia till I lived here - Gorbachev too is really not well remembered)


No worries


Yup a grade A one

Thank you, appreciate the time spent.

Of course we forget about Kolomoisky and I find his past both fascinating and somewhat "protected" an Ukraine born of Israeli descent Billionaire in place in the Ukraine is quite the dichotomy, IMO!


I think others have pulled you up on your opinion re Putin, and it part rather unfairly as you have first hand experience of his regime from memory, I think it goes without saying that at many points over his tenure he has been hugely popular in Russia as you stated a while back, a bit Trumpesque in some of his ways, playing to the masses etc but I wonder if there are are now moves to oust him? and if those moves internally are in fact fortifying his stance?

It is also very interesting that such esteemed strategists all predicted the course, post the Minsk Agreement, I think I have my timelines slightly askew here as if I recall correctly, it was also seen way back in the 90's as a possible trigger point for the next global conflict and yet seem to have been dismissed?

I worry that Biden and more recently Truss comments are leading us to a conflict and that they are, certainly in Bidens case off the cuff remarks outside of their advisers real steers, which begs the question of US policy, why are they sticking with him when they can use an amendment in their constitution to question his mental capacity. Is it in any way related to his Sons misdemeanour's? Nuts if this is the whole reason to protect the Biden family! Truss is really an uknown in terms of global politics other than her rhetoric which implies that will do whatever, a very dangerous game to play with people like Putin, have we learnt nothing from the past?

Also interesting that the line of succession is not set in stone, I guess Putin sees himself there in perpetuity?

a very good point regarding seeing the world as it is, not what you want it to be.

All in all very troubling times

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I would suggest there is zero chance of Ukraine accepting anything apart from a full Russian withdrawl, and why should they.

Not only are Russia facing a commited and capable force they are facing this dragging on for years and being as acceptable as Northern Ireland is to Southern Ireland.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

I would suggest there is zero chance of Ukraine accepting anything apart from a full Russian withdrawl, and why should they.

Not only are Russia facing a commited and capable force they are facing this dragging on for years and being as acceptable as Northern Ireland is to Southern Ireland.

I have a suspicion Putin has just Afghan'd himself.

 

[tsubaki]

I would suggest there is zero chance of Ukraine accepting anything apart from a full Russian withdrawl, and why should they.

Not only are Russia facing a commited and capable force they are facing this dragging on for years and being as acceptable as Northern Ireland is to Southern Ireland.

The problem they have though is that they are dependent on arms supplies from abroad for the foreseeable future, as well as funds to keep the state going. No-one wants this to go on for years, and if a realistic way out emerges (however little faith can be placed in the participants) they are going to be effectively made to accept it.

 

[tsubaki]

I have a suspicion Putin has just Afghan'd himself.

FWIW this is many, many times worse than Afghanistan was - in that entire war the USSR lost just under 15000 men in just over 9 years, and even Shoigu's figures say they've lost a third of that in nine months.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

FWIW this is many, many times worse than Afghanistan was - in that entire war the USSR lost just under 15000 men in just over 9 years, and even Shoigu's figures say they've lost a third of that in nine months.

Absolutely, I meant in terms of wedding himself, come hell or high water, to a conflict he can't win whilst systematically burning down every off ramp.

Edit: Shoigu's figures stated just under 6000 casualties but that 90% of them were now back on operations. If that's true, they must be fighting with cap guns out there.