Current Affairs Ukraine

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

There isn't any telling what Putin's next move is, but I have a hard time seeing it being conciliatory rather than escalatory. Even if his hand is poor, which it looks like it is, he has way too many chips in the pot.

We have to hope this isn't a route. Putin still has tactical nuclear weapons up his sleeve that would open a pandoras box. Still happy for Ukraine to absolutely weaken the the Russians but we have to give them a chance to save a little face. They will easily fall into decadence anyway the next few years.

A previous poster stated India and China will fill the western energy gap with Russia. Check how much they are buying these resources for and at what volume they are feasibly able to manage without expensive networking. Russia needs the West as much as the West needed them for energy. I wonder if the trust is gone for good. Also, suppling China and India major adversaries will become another issue as time goes on. Mounting problems for Moscow.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

China have established a very strong foothold there, but as ever, the terms are questionable.

Due to the high birth rate in Africa and very low birth rate in Asias advanced economic countries there is due to be a big shift in the next 20-40
Years (or whatever it was, cannot remember exactly).

Built a lot of there infrastructure. Especially roads. Which was sorely needed.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Aye, it is not great but in the mafia state that Putin and his gang have created each of them, including Putin will know that there are open windows waiting, poisoned cups of tea, knifes waiting for backs and assassins in the shadows. Putin is not untouchable. One would imagine that the people in the video below will be discussing the situation.

@davids is this the peace deal you keep whimpering about?? ?

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Built a lot of there infrastructure. Especially roads. Which was sorely needed.

Yes, but the long terms are favourable to only one country

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

China have established a very strong foothold there, but as ever, the terms are questionable.

Due to the high birth rate in Africa and very low birth rate in Asias advanced economic countries there is due to be a big shift in the next 20-40
Years (or whatever it was, cannot remember exactly).

Fertility is a key strength for Africa, as well as natural resources - if they can stop being exploited!

The children’s continent: keeping up with Africa's growth

Africa's population is growing at a rapid rate, and by 2050 two in every five children will be born on the continent.

www.weforum.org

By 2050 the African economy as a continent is forecast to increase tenfold.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Fertility is a key strength for Africa, as well as natural resources - if they can stop being exploited!

The children’s continent: keeping up with Africa's growth

Africa's population is growing at a rapid rate, and by 2050 two in every five children will be born on the continent.

www.weforum.org

By 2050 the African economy as a continet is forecast to increase tenfold.

I imagine China are using our (the west) centruries of exploitation in Africa to place themselves as the better option when it comes to new, long term partnerships. They can offer huge instant reward in building infrastructure etc and pay huge prices for the resources they desperately need. Will be hard for the west to get back to the table in many of these countries

 

[Martin Alvito]

We have to hope this isn't a route. Putin still has tactical nuclear weapons up his sleeve that would open a pandoras box. Still happy for Ukraine to absolutely weaken the the Russians but we have to give them a chance to save a little face. They will easily fall into decadence anyway the next few years.

A previous poster stated India and China will fill the western energy gap with Russia. Check how much they are buying these resources for and at what volume they are feasibly able to manage without expensive networking. Russia needs the West as much as the West needed them for energy. I wonder if the trust is gone for good. Also, suppling China and India major adversaries will become another issue as time goes on. Mounting problems for Moscow.

I suspect that first-use of nukes (or an attempt to do so) results in Putin's immediate downfall. It's just too good of a reason to move against him, and there are surely plenty of waiting jackals. In general, both authoritarian and democratic regimes fall swiftly after wheezing along for a long time with the cracks evident, and what causes the actual fall is a focal point for opposition to coalesce around. First-use fits into that narrative all too neatly.

That said, I think Putin's position is also probably untenable if he horks up Crimea, so he is more or less in a box where IMO he has to escalate by all possible conventional means and hope it works out.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

I suspect that first-use of nukes (or an attempt to do so) results in Putin's immediate downfall. It's just too good of a reason to move against him, and there are surely plenty of waiting jackals. In general, both authoritarian and democratic regimes fall swiftly after wheezing along for a long time with the cracks evident, and what causes the actual fall is a focal point for opposition to coalesce around. First-use fits into that narrative all too neatly.

That said, I think Putin's position is also probably untenable if he horks up Crimea, so he is more or less in a box where IMO he has to escalate by all possible conventional means and hope it works out.

Surely he is seeing this in slow motion. Sad fact who can he believe? His yes men are deluded to the point they are calling black white. While everyone connected to his military are coming to the realization this aint working. I see mass escalation or the armies throwing down their arms and fleeing. The Washington think tank recently say a solution will be found one way or the other before the end of the year. War of attrition during the cold months. Ukraine will gain more spectacular victories along the way. Their training has been impeccable.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Finally a voice of reason in this madness.

 

[davids]

Maybe time to show this on TV again.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Zaporizhzhia NPP may prove to be the biggest brinkmanship in that since the Cuban missile crisis.

Then again North Korea are due some nuclear tests.

Interesting times...

I suspect that the way he plays that card is to let it ride, and blame the loss of power for any negative outcome should one occur. It would be a foreign PR disaster, but a domestic PR win, and I suspect that he's fully in a Putnam-style two-level game where he's playing for the latter.

Surely he is seeing this in slow motion. Sad fact who can he believe? His yes men are deluded to the point they are calling black white. While everyone connected to his military are coming to the realization this aint working. I see mass escalation or the armies throwing down their arms and fleeing. The Washington think tank recently say a solution will be found one way or the other before the end of the year. War of attrition during the cold months. Ukraine will gain more spectacular victories along the way. Their training has been impeccable.

I don't see him having any remaining options other than to jam his remaining chips into the center of the pot, the way Hitler did during the Battle of the Bulge, and hope to haggle out a peace settlement that results in his retention of Crimea and some demilitarized disposition of Donbas as a consequence. He's losing, so he's not getting that from Zelenskyy unless he starts winning hard enough that continuing to pursue the war becomes too painful.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

I suspect that the way he plays that card is to let it ride, and blame the loss of power for any negative outcome should one occur. It would be a foreign PR disaster, but a domestic PR win, and I suspect that he's fully in a Putnam-style two-level game where he's playing for the latter.


I don't see him having any remaining options other than to jam his remaining chips into the center of the pot, the way Hitler did during the Battle of the Bulge, and hope to haggle out a peace settlement that results in his retention of Crimea and some demilitarized disposition of Donbas as a consequence. He's losing, so he's not getting that from Zelenskyy unless he starts winning hard enough that continuing to pursue the war becomes too painful.

Exactly, Putin has waivered too long.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

@PhilM One for you mate.