Current Affairs Ukraine

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Israeli terrorists would flatten Iran long before this could take place

Easily, Iran a one trick pony. Again, no backing from Russia will be coming if they are busy elsewhere and it seems they will be.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Easily, Iran a one trick pony.

Unfortunately, Iran was willing to come in from the cold under Obama, but trump got strong armed by Netanyahu and the rest is history.

When I say strong armed I mean totally effing done over

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

There's logic to this, but I don't think any of them want to test the waters with respect to the willingness of the US to back them up.

Now, if there's a shooting war on between the US and China, all of that goes right out the window. I can see unnecessary provocations under those circumstances.

They don't need the US. South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand are all very formidable without the backstop of the US.

Most likely the US would come to their aid in some way as would Canada and UK to be sure. Ask the French.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

There's logic to this, but I don't think any of them want to test the waters with respect to the willingness of the US to back them up.

Now, if there's a shooting war on between the US and China, all of that goes right out the window. I can see unnecessary provocations under those circumstances.

Absolutely, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan and Taiwan (probably others) all have territory issues with China. India on the northern border also

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Vietnam is becoming the new China. Manufacturing is on a epic scale.

 

[Martin Alvito]

They don't need the US. South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand are all very formidable without the backstop of the US.

Most likely the US would come to their aid in some way as would Canada and UK to be sure. Ask the French.

I wouldn't pick a fight with the PRC, if I were them. I wouldn't pick a fight with the PRC if I were Biden, but I also wouldn't shy away from it in the event of a war of aggression initiated by the PRC.

The smart play right now is to see what happens as their real estate sector slides into the inevitable correction. It's entirely possible that the PRC's government will collapse independent of external intervention. Their legitimacy is wholly dependent upon producing economic prosperity. If that ceases (and their 'Main Street' will get hit hard by this), absolutely anything could happen over there.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Russia faces defeat in Ukraine

Putin’s military strategy looks increasingly shaky

www.ft.com

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Totally agree. There are lot of Asian countries that could see this as their only chance to stand up with support.

Let us not forget the looming Lion. Africa is going to be the next huge area of economic growth and output.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Russia faces defeat in Ukraine

Putin’s military strategy looks increasingly shaky

www.ft.com

There isn't any telling what Putin's next move is, but I have a hard time seeing it being conciliatory rather than escalatory. Even if his hand is poor, which it looks like it is, he has way too many chips in the pot.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

I wouldn't pick a fight with the PRC, if I were them. I wouldn't pick a fight with the PRC if I were Biden, but I also wouldn't shy away from it in the event of a war of aggression initiated by the PRC.

The smart play right now is to see what happens as their real estate sector slides into the inevitable correction. It's entirely possible that the PRC's government will collapse independent of external intervention. Their legitimacy is wholly dependent upon producing economic prosperity. If that ceases (and their 'Main Street' will get hit hard by this), absolutely anything could happen over there.

Xi has to thread a tightrope carefully. He will always put his best interests ahead of protecting Putin. COVID lockdowns has caused many troubling internal issues form manufacturing to health issues. His focus will be as always a China first policy.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

There isn't any telling what Putin's next move is, but I have a hard time seeing it being conciliatory rather than escalatory. Even if his hand is poor, which it looks like it is, he has way too many chips in the pot.

Aye, it is not great but in the mafia state that Putin and his gang have created each of them, including Putin will know that there are open windows waiting, poisoned cups of tea, knifes waiting for backs and assassins in the shadows. Putin is not untouchable. One would imagine that the people in the video below will be discussing the situation.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Xi has to thread a tightrope carefully. He will always put his best interests ahead of protecting Putin. COVID lockdowns has caused many troubling internal issues form manufacturing to health issues. His focus will be as always a China first policy.

The lockdowns already have him on thin ice. The concern is that he could go for a rally-'round-the-flag effect with a move against Taiwan as a consequence of what is almost certainly coming in China's real estate sector.

I agree that he probably has zero interest in engaging with the morass Putin is in as a consequence. If he moves, it will be against the 'rebellious province'.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Let us not forget the looming Lion. Africa is going to be the next huge area of economic growth and output.

China have established a very strong foothold there, but as ever, the terms are questionable.

Due to the high birth rate in Africa and very low birth rate in Asias advanced economic countries there is due to be a big shift in the next 20-40
Years (or whatever it was, cannot remember exactly).

 

[Martin Alvito]

Aye, it is not great but in the mafia state that Putin and his gang have created each of them, including Putin will know that there are open windows waiting, poisoned cups of tea, knifes waiting for backs and assassins in the shadows. Putin is not untouchable. One would imagine that the people in the video below will be discussing the situation.

Yes, there's only one way of characterizing the political situation over there right now: 'unstable'.

Putin's problem IMO is less assassination and more that right now he is an incredibly valuable bargaining chip if handed over to Western authorities for trial at the Hague. I suspect that what he has to fear is more a 1991-style coup as a consequence.

 

[Yarrgh]

Don't want to believe that any nuclear power would purposely start a war that could escalate,but if too many plates are being spun one can easily fall.

Zaporizhzhia NPP may prove to be the biggest brinkmanship in that since the Cuban missile crisis.

Then again North Korea are due some nuclear tests.

Interesting times...