Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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No mate I do think they offer some security but very little and not what we’re getting told, or we wouldn’t be in this position would we? That’s why my gripe about trying to force to people to get it is strong. In the near future people won’t be able to blame the unvaccinated because the numbers won’t add up.
Look at it this way. Ignoring behaviours. Let’s assume no controls other than a vaccine. I’ll assume an r0 of 6. And that this spread will have over 10 days. That is, 1 person will spread it to 6 people 10 days.

I’ll give the vaccine a 17% effectiveness (which would drop r0 to 5).

Scenario one - population entirely unvaccinated.

After 40 days 1 person with the virus would be responsible for 1296 subsequent infections.

Scenario two - population entirely vaccinated with 17% effectiveness.

After 40 days 1 person would be responsible for 625 subsequent infections.
Added an example of the difference vaccines make to the numbers.
 
Had my second jab of pfizer this arvo, pretty much everyone i know has been floored by the second jab. Had shoulder surgery 2 weeks ago to take the plates and screws out from when i shattered it last year which included a bone graft from my hip to fill where the break hadn't healed, and I've pulled a muscle in my back in the last few days so feeling like I've been hit by a truck lol

So not looking forward to the possible side effects of the jab if they hit me tomorrow to add to it.
I just had a sore arm and was a little tired after the second Pfizer shot. My wife didn’t have any side effects.
Hope you’re in good shape tomorrow and ready for the Emir Cup Final.
Up the Fierce!
 
January to about April this year was absolutely horrible. Even the thought of that again is terrible.

The highlight of my week was going to the chippy lol

Other than the twitchers, not not one person if they were honest would abide by another lockdown.

Who would stop seeing their mates, who would stop seeing their parents etc, I know I wouldn`t even with the threat of a fine.

I`m vaccinated, they`re all vaccinated.
 
No mate I do think they offer some security but very little and not what we’re getting told, or we wouldn’t be in this position would we? That’s why my gripe about trying to force to people to get it is strong. In the near future people won’t be able to blame the unvaccinated because the numbers won’t add up.
My wife and I are both double jabbed and both still got COVID. I assume my wife passed it on to me as she tested positive 48 hours before I did. What I will say is that we both had very mild cases. Poorly for a couple of days and recovered quickly. We would both be classed as having some higher risk factors, I’m overweight with hypertension for example, and I would be fairly certain the vaccine stopped me from getting more serious symptoms.

Its fairly well established that efficacy wanes over time in terms of preventing spread. I still think getting vaccinated is a sensible thing to do providing you aren’t at high risk of side effects etc. If it reduces the number of serious cases/hospitalisations then it’s doing a job. That being said, individuals are free to make their own decisions, even if I might personally disagree with them.
 
We cannot have restrictions every winter without destroying the economy and the fabric of society. It's completely irresponsible to still be relying on lockdown restrictions after approx. 20 months.

I believe that we have to trust the vaccines and get on with our lives. We cannot allow the normalisation of governments taking away personal freedoms. It actually scares me how many people are happy for this to become a permanent thing. Exceptional circumstances allowed for exceptional rules, but it shouldn't become the permanent position.

No vaccine or measure will ever give full protection. We don't live in a perfect world. But the vaccines are by far the best protection we have and we have to trust them. We cannot fully eradicate covid so we need long term plans, not short term moves where we rotate in and out of lockdown in perpetuity.

I think that's very black and white thinking to be honest mate, so much is these days is when it comes to Covid.

Truth is my post is anything but suggesting a lock down, its not trust the vaccines and walk away, nor is it lock everything down, its about managing risk, health and maintaining life - its balance.

The measures i suggest are supporting the progress made over what is a key time of risk and transmission, the alternative in my opinion is an acceptance of higher transmission, health systems under pressure and promoting the chain of infection.

This is moving on, no one is suggesting a lock down, its to mitigate the risk of one to enable society to function. Walking blindly, into a winter, saying ah sure we're all vaccinated be grand, is pretty stupid without trying to implement the things i suggest. Its self fulfilling in terms of enabling exactly want you want to avoid, a lock down.
 
Other than the twitchers, not not one person if they were honest would abide by another lockdown.

Who would stop seeing their mates, who would stop seeing their parents etc, I know I wouldn`t even with the threat of a fine.

I`m vaccinated, they`re all vaccinated.
I don’t know anyone who wants another lockdown. I think politically it would be all but impossible to sell now.

In NI our health service is under extreme pressure and if there’s a heavy flu season outcomes could be very bad for people who get sick here, regardless of the cause. It’s a legacy of poor political leadership in terms of reforming health care (which has been an ongoing issue for years) combined with the pandemic. So I could potentially see restrictions being reintroduced here but doubt it will be a full lockdown.
 
The press and media have got a lot to answer for.

They`re whipping it all up again. Terms like " Twindemic " terrifying the life out of the old and vulnerable.

If you go to Tesco, the great unmasked in there will kill you, if you go the pub, the unmasked drunks in there will kill you and the kids in the schools will bring it home and kill you.

Best thing for everyone is more lockdowns and get everyone locked indoors again.
In my mind there's something a bit sinister going on where the governments have seen this virus as a great opportunity to quieten down the masses and see how far they can basically squash the everyday person down to where they want them. Kill off small businesses whilst the big companies have been able to stay open - your KFC's McDonald's etc have ploughed on through this while family owned businesses either shut or stay open heavily restricted just as one example.

May be just utter bollocks I'm thinking but it just doesn't feel right.
 
I do wear a mask where supposed to. There are people clamouring for restrictions that are a lot more than just masks. They always want more restrictions.
Maybe you do wear a mask maybe not and not my point of interest. Various professional bodies that make up the NHS, are extremely concerned about being overwhelmed.

Whatever the measure used to announce who died of what is for unpleasants. It's someone's loved one who has passed. And if its deemed unnecessary death because of the sheer numbers of poorly people requiring a hospital and there was no more capacity to manage. Ask yourself how happy you would be that people whined about wearing mask/working from home, requiring vaccine passport.

Ignoring the issues in cases and deaths again now won't make it hindsight when harder restrictions are finally brought in.
 
If them numbers were true we would still be living in and amongst it and from the 625 every 40 days then in no time we would be back to square one.
I’ve used 6 as that was the original estimation before vaccines and before restrictions. I’ve also used a very low efficacy for a conservative estimate.

The point being, even a conservative estimate has a significant effect on the numbers.

The point being we aren’t living in that world because the vaccines are effective in slowing the spread. That is my original point. Make your choice, that’s fine. But to argue that they make little difference to the spread is just wrong. If you believe that it stops even a relatively small % of people contracting it in the first place, the it makes a huge difference. Especially once you factor in subsequent transmission.

You can’t pass it on if you don’t get it. If the vaccine prevents someone from getting it in the first place then it reduces the spread.

You are looking at the numbers and failing to consider what they would be without the vaccines or other measures in place.
 
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In my mind there's something a bit sinister going on where the governments have seen this virus as a great opportunity to quieten down the masses and see how far they can basically squash the everyday person down to where they want them. Kill off small businesses whilst the big companies have been able to stay open - your KFC's McDonald's etc have ploughed on through this while family owned businesses either shut or stay open heavily restricted just as one example.

May be just utter bollocks I'm thinking but it just doesn't feel right.
I think the amount of money gifted to party donor's re: PPE and suchlike tells you all you need to know.
 
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