Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Martin Alvito said:
I think it's legitimate for a healthy adult that's the wrong side of 40 to think that they could end up hospitalized or underground if their roll of the dice comes up snake eyes.

I think it's also reasonable for there to be disagreement about what to do about it. Some people may be more comfortable with running those risks than others, and how severe those risks are in the immediate term depend on how overwhelmed the local healthcare system is (or is not).
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A 20% chance of hospitalization isn’t something I personally am going to dismiss lightly - Trump had about the same odds of becoming president iirc. Especially given that here in the US that would also come with a medical bill of thousands of $.
 
Kenshin said:
Reading some stats on the virus out of curiousity , I can't help but go back to the way the media is presenting this information.

At the end of the day for someone who is vunrable to the virus numbers don't matter , which I think we can all agree on.

But there is 171000 cases around the world right now reportedly of the virus. The amount that are classed as mild symptoms , 95% or in numbers 163000 (rounding down).

I've said it before but this isn't being reported in the media , certainly not in the UK media from all the sources I come accross. There should be worry and panic around the world for those 5% , but for the 95% of the infected, it's mild, it's no different , dare I say, to getting the flu.

I know I'm not meant to compare the flu to covid-19 as social media keeps telling me but on the majority , according to the data out there it's acting no different. In fact the number of deaths in the us between October and February for the flu could be around 30000 (couldn't get my head around the UK data sorry). So 30000 deaths in a 5 month period.

In 2 months, covid-19 has killed just over 220 people in America , that number could well rise significantly in the next 3 months and then you get a good comparison. However given 30000 died with a flu vaccine readily available, even if that number is similar at the end of the period, it's only affecting people much the same way.

Which is my point I guess. The reason why the shops are empty by 8am every day, why you can't buy toilet roll anymore and why the whole population (not government) is in such a panic is because if that 5%. Everyone believes they are that 5% and act accordingly yet chances are they are the 95%.

There are reasons why there is a 5% critical rate which is again much the same as another Corona virus that can be caught at any time. Underlying health issues being the key term in the small print of every article headline.

If that 95% was communicated out then people wouldn't panic. It's really not and that's the problem. I'm not taking that from on here , or people who actually know what they are taking about. I'm talking about the likes of me, all the people on social media , tik tok and the rest of them. They are only aware of the 5% and act like they are that.

As I will always say, people should be worried about this virus , but not the ones outside Asda at 6am every day now.
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ffs
it’s not the same as flu

Even if the percentage hospitalized or fatality rate is artificially higer due to low levels of testing or missing asymptotic/mild cases, they are likely to still be higher than flu

81490
 
Kenshin said:
Sorry guys. Think my point is being missed on my replies.

What I'm trying to say is that all this information is not being communicated effectively to the general population. Generally people don't visit WHO or government websites, they get their news from social media which in turn comes from news outlets. Headlines get shared rather than stories.

I'm not denying the information is out there , what I'm trying to suggest is that it's not being communicated in the channels that matter. People aren't sharing articles saying mild symptoms etc. They are sharing death stories , guess work on numbers and hospital stories. That's the information being generally offered which in turn is creating a tornado of fear that doesn't need to be there.

Like I said , if people knew the chance of mild symptoms was so high, they wouldn't be panicking for anyone other than loved ones susceptible to the virus. That's not what I see on a daily basis. People genuinely believe they will die or end up in hospital if they catch this virus. Which isn't the whole truth.
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I agree that information isn’t being communicated effectively but where we disagree is the that mild symptoms are high

Here for instance is the latest CDC report
www.cdc.gov

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing...
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
IGURE 2. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations,* intensive care unit (ICU) admissions,† and deaths,§ by age group — United States, February 12– March 16, 2020
The figure is a bar chart showing the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths, by age group, in the United States during February 12– March 16, 2020.


The US testing data is really bad so we have a poor understanding of the number of mild cases that never get treated as yet but the data is not that comforting so far if we are hoping to avoid overwhelmed hospitals.
 
LinekersLegs said:
Patient 0 in Italy was a 38year old who needed the icu, irrc he was a marathon runner
abcnews.go.com

Patient No. 1 is out of ICU as virus pushes Italy to brink

Italian doctors are celebrating one small victory in their battle against the coronavirus after Patient No. 1 — a 38-year-old Unilever worker named Mattia — was moved out of intensive care
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com

I think there is quite a lot of confusion between “likely not fatal” and “there is non trivial chance you’ll need a lot of good medical care”
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And in the US the massive medical bill that would come with it

And unknown long term damage to lungs
 
MarcelsGoat said:
I need to stay away from Reddit.

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Flip side, in the early days of this you were immediately put into ICU if you tested positive no? Now because its more rampant they're basically saying stay at home unless you're serious and or having trouble breathing etc so could see that number drop if that's the case but again I dunno if I'm completely right with that.

Edit: that % of people may also have health issues etc. Age is irrelevant if you're severely ill. Just trying to pick out the positives in a media overload of negativity
 
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Watched newsnight and glad to see general praise - and more pushing from the shadow chanc. @tsubaki - for yesterday's funds.

I'm hopeful that next week we'll get more on freelancers/self-employed. Confident it will come and confident the opposition and gov are at least working together on this.

How it's all going to be paid for? Well, suppose we'll have to worry about that later. Taxes will no doubt go up but suppose first and foremost it's about getting through this next few months.
 
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