Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[tsubaki]

Reading some stats on the virus out of curiousity , I can't help but go back to the way the media is presenting this information.

At the end of the day for someone who is vunrable to the virus numbers don't matter , which I think we can all agree on.

But there is 171000 cases around the world right now reportedly of the virus. The amount that are classed as mild symptoms , 95% or in numbers 163000 (rounding down).

I've said it before but this isn't being reported in the media , certainly not in the UK media from all the sources I come accross. There should be worry and panic around the world for those 5% , but for the 95% of the infected, it's mild, it's no different , dare I say, to getting the flu.

I know I'm not meant to compare the flu to covid-19 as social media keeps telling me but on the majority , according to the data out there it's acting no different. In fact the number of deaths in the us between October and February for the flu could be around 30000 (couldn't get my head around the UK data sorry). So 30000 deaths in a 5 month period.

In 2 months, covid-19 has killed just over 220 people in America , that number could well rise significantly in the next 3 months and then you get a good comparison. However given 30000 died with a flu vaccine readily available, even if that number is similar at the end of the period, it's only affecting people much the same way.

Which is my point I guess. The reason why the shops are empty by 8am every day, why you can't buy toilet roll anymore and why the whole population (not government) is in such a panic is because if that 5%. Everyone believes they are that 5% and act accordingly yet chances are they are the 95%.

There are reasons why there is a 5% critical rate which is again much the same as another Corona virus that can be caught at any time. Underlying health issues being the key term in the small print of every article headline.

If that 95% was communicated out then people wouldn't panic. It's really not and that's the problem. I'm not taking that from on here , or people who actually know what they are taking about. I'm talking about the likes of me, all the people on social media , tik tok and the rest of them. They are only aware of the 5% and act like they are that.

As I will always say, people should be worried about this virus , but not the ones outside Asda at 6am every day now.

TBF - and this is a complete guess - but I'd say the number of people infected worldwide is closer to 171 million than it is 171000.

 

[summerisle]

 

[Kenshin]

I think it's been well covered that it has little to no effect on fit young and middle aged people, but without these precautions, this thing would run roughshod over every healthcare system in Europe (even with draconian precautions it's racking up numbers in the thousands) and cause untold misery all over the world. The message has to be clear, isolation is the most effective approach to slowing it down and we need everyone to do it. Maybe you're not impressed by the numbers so far (though I think 11,000 is a lot) but just think of this: those numbers will get far worse before they get better even with an effective continental lockdown in place. What would it be like without?

Sorry, I’m still confused as they have on this page so I don’t quite understand where you are gerting the 5% figure from other than only counting the critical ones. Also the key issue that is worrying a lot of people is not so much the rates themselves as everyone getting it at the same time thus collapsing the healthcare system.

Coronavirus Symptoms (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Possible symptoms, as observed in studies, of infection with the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

• 80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.
• 13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
• 4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure.
• in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal.
• Risk of death increases the older you are.
• Relatively few cases are seen among children.

Sorry guys. Think my point is being missed on my replies.

What I'm trying to say is that all this information is not being communicated effectively to the general population. Generally people don't visit WHO or government websites, they get their news from social media which in turn comes from news outlets. Headlines get shared rather than stories.

I'm not denying the information is out there , what I'm trying to suggest is that it's not being communicated in the channels that matter. People aren't sharing articles saying mild symptoms etc. They are sharing death stories , guess work on numbers and hospital stories. That's the information being generally offered which in turn is creating a tornado of fear that doesn't need to be there.

Like I said , if people knew the chance of mild symptoms was so high, they wouldn't be panicking for anyone other than loved ones susceptible to the virus. That's not what I see on a daily basis. People genuinely believe they will die or end up in hospital if they catch this virus. Which isn't the whole truth.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Aye apologies, the virus is young and it is probably too early to even say what kind of effects it could have on the supposedly safer of us

Patient 0 in Italy was a 38year old who needed the icu, irrc he was a marathon runner

Patient No. 1 is out of ICU as virus pushes Italy to brink

Italian doctors are celebrating one small victory in their battle against the coronavirus after Patient No. 1 — a 38-year-old Unilever worker named Mattia — was moved out of intensive care

abcnews.go.com

I think there is quite a lot of confusion between “likely not fatal” and “there is non trivial chance you’ll need a lot of good medical care”

 

[Kenshin]

TBF - and this is a complete guess - but I'd say the number of people infected worldwide is closer to 171 million than it is 171000.

I can only go on official statistics sadly.

I agree, the number of infected is probably much higher given how many are self isolating at home and only getting mild symptoms.

 

[Bluerover]

Patient 0 in Italy was a 38year old who needed the icu, irrc he was a marathon runner

Patient No. 1 is out of ICU as virus pushes Italy to brink

Italian doctors are celebrating one small victory in their battle against the coronavirus after Patient No. 1 — a 38-year-old Unilever worker named Mattia — was moved out of intensive care

abcnews.go.com

I think there is quite a lot of confusion between “likely not fatal” and “there is non trivial chance you’ll need a lot of good medical care”

Problem is that permanent scarring damage probably done to the lungs of those who ended in ICU or CCU. Good that those have survived but a difficult future likely. God help them

 

[Nymzee]

I think it's been well covered that it has little to no effect on fit young and middle aged people, but without these precautions, this thing would run roughshod over every healthcare system in Europe (even with draconian precautions it's racking up numbers in the thousands) and cause untold misery all over the world. The message has to be clear, isolation is the most effective approach to slowing it down and we need everyone to do it. Maybe you're not impressed by the numbers so far (though I think 11,000 is a lot) but just think of this: those numbers will get far worse before they get better even with an effective continental lockdown in place. What would it be like without?

Woman in her early 50’s apparently died today where I live of it. Someone’s said no underlying health issues but doubt that’s true.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Problem is that permanent scarring damage probably done to the lungs of those who ended in ICU or CCU. Good that those have survived but a difficult future likely. God help them

Aye, have been reading some of those cases from Asia

 

[COYBL25]

Last time I looked you were on the ale.....

I will be for the foreseeable by the looks of it.

 

[summerisle]

Paddington following the advice on social isolation.

 

[dublinbluenose]

The median age for people in Ireland testing positive is around 43

 

[summerisle]

 

[Martin Alvito]

Like I said , if people knew the chance of mild symptoms was so high, they wouldn't be panicking for anyone other than loved ones susceptible to the virus. That's not what I see on a daily basis. People genuinely believe they will die or end up in hospital if they catch this virus. Which isn't the whole truth.

I think it's legitimate for a healthy adult that's the wrong side of 40 to think that they could end up hospitalized or underground if their roll of the dice comes up snake eyes.

I think it's also reasonable for there to be disagreement about what to do about it. Some people may be more comfortable with running those risks than others, and how severe those risks are in the immediate term depend on how overwhelmed the local healthcare system is (or is not).

 

[Sentinel]

TBF - and this is a complete guess - but I'd say the number of people infected worldwide is closer to 171 million than it is 171000.

I don't think anyone knows the true figure. Probably because there is a severe lack of testing kits.

 

[Nymzee]

Like I said , if people knew the chance of mild symptoms was so high, they wouldn't be panicking for anyone other than loved ones susceptible to the virus. That's not what I see on a daily basis. People genuinely believe they will die or end up in hospital if they catch this virus. Which isn't the whole truth.

Me thinks you’re spending too much time on social media.