I think its fairly simple myself, the UK and Ireland need to stay in their individual forms of lock down until the end of April at a minimum.
Put very simply neither are ready to lift the very different measures both have put in place in my opinion.
I say that for a few reasons, the UK are continuing to see exponential growth in the virus, the figures are getting progressively worse while that is not backed up by good testing infrastructure. April wont see a peak it will see a surge then level off. The UK are behind on managing exponential growth, testing and contact testing infrastruture. Those Key things have to be in place for the next phase of management of reduced restrictions. Other aspects come into play like the chain of supply of PPE, resources like health care professionals being available - who might be getting the virus right now and supply of equipment. All these things need work or be put in place before the UK can consider reducing restrictions. In the context exponential growth the UK is still very fragile.
Ireland is that bit different, we are testing more per capita, have a clear testing policy are testing in the community and tracing contacts and we also put restrictions in place before the UK, i wouldnt be clapping ourselves on the back to much as we really need to improve the scope of our current infrastructure. Our measures have seen a slower rate in our exponential growth, we still do have a lot of heavy lifting to do, but we have seen a positive rate in our exponential growth per captia relatively speaking with the worst hit bigger countries Europe, as yet anyway. Our surge is coming in April to, but hopefully we will see measures impact positively as they have up to now. Our problem in managing April is going to be our chain of supply, particularity PPE and testing resources. We also wouldn't have the breath of health infrastructure as the Uk albeit a smaller population though, but a starker contrast of rural and urban divide to.
So by May in my opinion is that both the UK and Ireland will implement a sword and dance approach. The job of work for both countries in April, is to manage the surge within the health services and do their best not to be overwhelmed. By the start of May lifting some restrictions nees to be considered, a testing and contact tracing infrastructure, testing resources and the chain of supply of PPE and equipment needs to be put into place during April for this to happen. Restrictions that are lifted need to be considered carefully, it would be fool hearty going bank to normal life. Other variables will be advice on wearing masks etc for the general public in my opinion.
The "Hammer and Dance" approach i think is something we can expect to see. Release of restrictions and then more lock downs. Once restrictions are lifted we then need to plan for the next lock down which could be as early as July, August in my opinion, but that depends on the work done in April in flattening the curve, getting testing resources, putting testing and contract tracing infrastructure in place and having a chain of supply for all the essentials.
And so on it will be until 1) Heard immunity emerges of 2) A vaccine or better treatment. Probably those two thing working toward each other.
