Current Affairs Ukraine

[Mutzo Nutzo]

... and all because some politicians in Lithuania wanted to make a gesture. It is crazy and if they've been told to wind their necks in they must absolutely do that; if they don't then the EU/NATO troops present there should start to withdraw.

I’d say the fault initially lies with the EU for not looking at the map when they drew up the list of sanctions.

In effect LUA is following the defined EU sanctions to the letter.

If the EU do an about face on this one then yes LUA should comply - however I’ve only seen one twitter rumour to the contrary so I think this has still to play out fully.

 

[Yarrgh]

I had a brief look at the list of EU sanctions against Russia/Crimea/Belarus/DNR/LPR since 2016 and to say it’s woolly and open to interpretation is an understatement.

There’s no definition or mention of Kaliningrad that I can find. All I can summise is that LUA is imposing the ban on sanctioned goods being exported through LUA, not really giving a flying one that the goods are intended for Kaliningrad.

We’ve seen the response now with Russia basing Iskander M ballistic missile systems in Belarus, this effectively puts the whole of LUA within missile range.

NATO will now respond by deploying additional forces in LUA and also I guess would deploy PATRIOT PAC-3 systems in LUA to counter the Iskanders.

So it goes on

Let alone the missiles based in Kaliningrad.

It's a real sh!t sandwich any way you take a bite up there in the Baltics.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Let alone the missiles based in Kaliningrad.

It's a real sh!t sandwich any way you take a bite up there in the Baltics.

True, getting real smelly up there

 

[PhilM]

Also US int picked up what appears to be a staging area in Belarus of a Russian force approaching 13K. They could be thinking of another push on Kyiv? Stretching Uke forces even more.

The word on the street is that the forces in Belarus have been conducting exercises for the purpose of... errr.. defence. The troops are nowhere near first rate.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

The word on the street is that the forces in Belarus have been conducting exercises for the purpose of... errr.. defence. The troops are nowhere near first rate.

Aye but there’s a train of thought that Ru is silently mobilising. Moving troops from other regular units throughout Russia to build new BTG’s.

Even if they turn out to be poorly trained and equipped conscripts, Ukraine would still have to re-deploy forces to counter them.

I think he’s simply trying to stretch the Ukes - I don’t really believe they’ll take another pop at Kyiv.

 

[PhilM]

Aye but there’s a train of thought that Ru is silently mobilising. Moving troops from other regular units throughout Russia to build new BTG’s.

Even if they turn out to be poorly trained and equipped conscripts, Ukraine would still have to re-deploy forces to counter them.

I think he’s simply trying to stretch the Ukes - I don’t really believe they’ll take another pop at Kyiv.

I think to some extent they definitely are or at least reshaping their formations, but a few knowledgeable people* I know keep advocating it as building a buffer.

It's obviously far more complex than this, however if Russia have came to the conclusion that they can't completely take Ukraine then a strong stance is required.

Additional troops in the east of Ukraine will mean that the UA and it's NATO allies will struggle to force them back; a strong Belarus would keep eyes westward.

The same comes with Kaliningrad; they will need to look behind them rather than facing purely towards Russia's borders. *These are still serving people too.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I think to some extent they definitely are or at least reshaping their formations, but a few knowledgeable people* I know keep advocating it as building a buffer.

It's obviously far more complex than this, however if Russia have came to the conclusion that they can't completely take Ukraine then a strong stance is required.

Additional troops in the east of Ukraine will mean that the UA and it's NATO allies will struggle to force them back; a strong Belarus would keep eyes westward.

The same comes with Kaliningrad; they will need to look behind them rather than facing purely towards Russia's borders. *These are still serving people too.

That Lukashenko has a face that you’d never get tired of punching.

 

[Sassy Colombian]

Should we be worried?

I guess we should ask that question to those who live in London. I’m sure the UK government has a plan to deal with such situation, but it would make me uneasy as a citizen to live in any city that could potentially be a target during a war. Thus the reason I would never reside in such cities whether is here in the US or anywhere else. Where do you live, if I may ask? And would you be concerned?

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I guess we should ask that question to those who live in London. I’m sure the UK government has a plan to deal with such situation, but it would make me uneasy as a citizen to live in any city that could potentially be a target during a war. Thus the reason I would never reside in such cities whether is here in the US or anywhere else. Where do you live, if I may ask? And would you be concerned?

I moved to London when I was about 19, then moved to Bath ten years later . I’m only 90 miles from London. Dunno if that’s close enough to need to worry
I wish someone would just end putin so we could all go back to worrying about football

 

[Huyton Layne]

First there was the ghost of Kyiv and now we have the goat of Kyiv!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...iggers-russian-boobytrap-injures-40-soldiers/

Holy unfortunate cropping of the hyperlink Batman

 

[Sassy Colombian]

I moved to London when I was about 19, then moved to Bath ten years later . I’m only 90 miles from London. Dunno if that’s close enough to need to worry
I wish someone would just end putin so we could all go back to worrying about football

My same wishes. I don’t wish death to many people but Putin and Trump are among those human beings that I wish gone and just by getting rid of those two the world be a much better place.

 

[Yarrgh]

Aye but there’s a train of thought that Ru is silently mobilising. Moving troops from other regular units throughout Russia to build new BTG’s.

Even if they turn out to be poorly trained and equipped conscripts, Ukraine would still have to re-deploy forces to counter them.

I think he’s simply trying to stretch the Ukes - I don’t really believe they’ll take another pop at Kyiv.

Yes, but I would not be surprised by it if it turns out to be a successful avenue of attack. Do historical Russian borders put Kyiv as up for grabs in Putin's mind?

 

[Yarrgh]

That Lukashenko has a face that you’d never get tired of punching.

He looks like someone has already tried to test that hypothesis and it took a long time to find a conclusion.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Yes, but I would not be surprised by it if it turns out to be a successful avenue of attack. Do historical Russian borders put Kyiv as up for grabs in Putin's mind?

As I said it’s probably just a feint to draw off Ukranian troops and equipment from the Donbas front.

 

[Yarrgh]

Price caps on oil and gas from EU/ west? This is potentially a big one. Be interesting to see if it's implemented and what the Russian response is.