Current Affairs Ukraine

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Presume this is a response to the threat of moving warheads to Belarus?

I think it’s a general response to Russia flapping around like a wet fish and threatening to nuke everyone.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Yes, through a corridor enforced by the ru army perhaps.

Well that won’t work.

 

[Yarrgh]

Russia will invade LTU?

Not likely.

 

[Yarrgh]

Thing is due to sanctions Russia will not be able to charter any of the big global shipping companies (Maersk for example). This will force Ru to re-purpose internal shipping assets so yeah this will cause some major headaches to Russia but not the end of the world. Stuff will still get to Kaliningrad eventually.

I don't think it's much of a big deal. I thought it was just an embargo of stuff that was prohibited to be exported from the EU to Russia so I'm guessing no one will unduly suffer anything more than an inconvenience.

But things do tend to escalate pretty quickly at this time. Is it an independent action of defiance or a bellwether sent up o behalf of the EU/NATO to probe or push a reaction out if Russia?

Interesting to see if it does suck some shipping resources that was planned for the Black Sea.

Getting into the nitty-gritty of this now. Russia settling in for the grind. Missiles to the capital and west - I can't see how this ends soon unfortunately.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I don't think it's much of a big deal. I thought it was just an embargo of stuff that was prohibited to be exported from the EU to Russia so I'm guessing no one will unduly suffer anything more than an inconvenience.

But things do tend to escalate pretty quickly at this time. Is it an independent action of defiance or a bellwether sent up o behalf of the EU/NATO to probe or push a reaction out if Russia?

Interesting to see if it does suck some shipping resources that was planned for the Black Sea.

Getting into the nitty-gritty of this now. Russia settling in for the grind. Missiles to the capital and west - I can't see how this ends soon unfortunately.

Yup agreed. Simply more posturing from Moscow. I think their axe is that they view Kaliningrad as internal Russian territory so see this embargo as illegal.

Heard a report of Russia now moving ammo from Belarus to the Donbas. Possible indication that they are rapidly depleting their stores.

Also US int picked up what appears to be a staging area in Belarus of a Russian force approaching 13K. They could be thinking of another push on Kyiv? Stretching Uke forces even more.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Also US int picked up what appears to be a staging area in Belarus of a Russian force approaching 13K. They could be thinking of another push on Kyiv? Stretching Uke forces even more.

ffs, when will they stop?

 

[Sassy Colombian]

The threats by Russians on state tv continue. So it seems the first city they would target would be London

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Snake island got utterly malleted last night.

155mm tube arty, MLRS, and air strikes all involved - can’t be much left there now

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

The threats by Russians on state tv continue. So it seems the first city they would target would be London

Should we be worried?

 

[tsubaki]

Yup agreed. Simply more posturing from Moscow. I think their axe is that they view Kaliningrad as internal Russian territory so see this embargo as illegal.

Heard a report of Russia now moving ammo from Belarus to the Donbas. Possible indication that they are rapidly depleting their stores.

Also US int picked up what appears to be a staging area in Belarus of a Russian force approaching 13K. They could be thinking of another push on Kyiv? Stretching Uke forces even more.

The thing is it is probably in breach of EU-Russia agreements, and everyone agrees Kaliningrad is part of Russia. This was (and is) a needless provocation in a situation which absolutely needs none of that sort of thing - and as I've said a couple of times, it looks like something someone did on their own.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

The thing is it is probably in breach of EU-Russia agreements, and everyone agrees Kaliningrad is part of Russia. This was (and is) a needless provocation in a situation which absolutely needs none of that sort of thing - and as I've said a couple of times, it looks like something someone did on their own.

I don't think the EU and Russia have any formal relations anymore, so agreements in the bin methinks

 

[devogue]

So I agreed with Lithuania in the beginning when they were just following the EU but not sure about this move.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

The thing is it is probably in breach of EU-Russia agreements, and everyone agrees Kaliningrad is part of Russia. This was (and is) a needless provocation in a situation which absolutely needs none of that sort of thing - and as I've said a couple of times, it looks like something someone did on their own.

I had a brief look at the list of EU sanctions against Russia/Crimea/Belarus/DNR/LPR since 2016 and to say it’s woolly and open to interpretation is an understatement.

There’s no definition or mention of Kaliningrad that I can find. All I can summise is that LUA is imposing the ban on sanctioned goods being exported through LUA, not really giving a flying one that the goods are intended for Kaliningrad.

We’ve seen the response now with Russia basing Iskander M ballistic missile systems in Belarus, this effectively puts the whole of LUA within missile range.

NATO will now respond by deploying additional forces in LUA and also I guess would deploy PATRIOT PAC-3 systems in LUA to counter the Iskanders.

So it goes on

 

[tsubaki]

I don't think the EU and Russia have any formal relations anymore, so agreements in the bin methinks

They do - the ambassadors are still in post, embassies still staffed, discussions are still being held. Relations are bad but they've not been stopped.

So I agreed with Lithuania in the beginning when they were just following the EU but not sure about this move.

It is absolutely crazy behaviour, if that is true. This is not the time for idiotic gestures.

 

[tsubaki]

I had a brief look at the list of EU sanctions against Russia/Crimea/Belarus/DNR/LPR since 2016 and to say it’s woolly and open to interpretation is an understatement.

There’s no definition or mention of Kaliningrad that I can find. All I can summise is that LUA is imposing the ban on sanctioned goods being exported through LUA, not really giving a flying one that the goods are intended for Kaliningrad.

We’ve seen the response now with Russia basing Iskander M ballistic missile systems in Belarus, this effectively puts the whole of LUA within missile range.

NATO will now respond by deploying additional forces in LUA and also I guess would deploy PATRIOT PAC-3 systems in LUA to counter the Iskanders.

So it goes on

... and all because some politicians in Lithuania wanted to make a gesture. It is crazy and if they've been told to wind their necks in they must absolutely do that; if they don't then the EU/NATO troops present there should start to withdraw.