I've got to admit I haven't fully got my head around this issue. Putin's aims seem diffuse, and the Ukrianian government don't seem like anyone we should be supporting, and there are openly neo-nazi divisions within its army and police who have been carrying out programs against Jews and LGBT people for some time now.
It seems like a disaster waiting to happen to me.
Anyone care to provide a 101?
I live in Ukraine. This is my take on it.
A coloured revolution took place in Ukraine. Similar to what was attempted recently in Kazakhstan.
Russia and it's ally's moved swiftly to stomp out the Kazakhstan attempt. However when Ukraine was taken over they did very little to stop this. Lessons learned.
An American puppet was installed as president of Ukraine. (
)
Since then Ukraine has let a lot of non Ukrainians into their government. Including offering an American lieutenant colonel the position of defense minister.
Russia's main navy base is in Sevastopol. In Crimea. Khrushchev allowed Crimea to be given as gift to Ukraine.
The 2014 so called Annexation was an attempt to reaffirm it's naval base.
A referendum was called to allow the people of Crimea to vote if they wished to join the Russian federation.
The people wished to join. However two other regions wished to join the Russian federation Donetsk and Lugansk after seeing in effect an American Coup d'état take over Ukraine.
Putin did not accept these bids.
Skip forward again, there is confrontation as America wishes to use Ukraine as a geo political pawn to either fight a proxy war or cripple Russia with sanctions.
America wishes to try use the threat of offering Ukraine Nato membership to provoke Russia into conflict.
America has a Monroe Doctrine where they demand no country interferes with South America. The Cuban Missile Crisis was about Russia challenging the Monroe Doctrine after America put Missiles in Turkey.
Having Ukraine join Nato puts Nuclear Missiles 5 minuets away from Moscow and an invasion force potentially on the border of their only Naval base that can reach the black sea.
This is a redline. Could you imagine if Nazi Germany setup shop in Dublin, how would the reaction be.
In my opinion the most likely outcome would be it boils over and becomes just kicked down the road.
But if Russia does invade Ukraine Russia would not face any opposition militarily from Nato and the Eu. And Russia could also invade from Belerus and other regions and totally overwhelm Ukraine.
Unless you want to risk you sons to die for America that is probably the best outcome.
Russia are being backed into a corner. They will have to risk sanctions rather than allow Nato to setup and potentially have their Navy made ineffective.
If it did escalate into further conflict.
Belerus. Kazakhstan would guard the flank of the region. Very likely the people of Poland and Serbia and maybe Greece would back Russia. China would not sit back and allow a total war be fought with forces that would try pickoff Russia and then turn attention to China, they would step in.
Russia and China could cut off America and Eu's medical supplies and gas and siege them.
There is the wildcard option of Iran Russias ally having 100s of thousands of missiles pointed at Isreal too and would see an opportunity to attack while their main protector United states engaged on multi front war.
There is very little chances of any of these situations playing out. Things will calm down in my opinion.
If Russia did invade Ukraine, the only real outcome you would see in response is a sanctioning as militarlity action here would be a stalemate at best.
