Current Affairs Ukraine

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The most depressing thing about all of this - aside from the fact that thousands of people will needlessly die because of the delusions of one man - is the complete and utter predicability of it all. It has played out exactly how everybody predicted, despite the offers of diplomacy and later threats of sanctions.

It's also depressing (and slightly amusing) how Putin somehow manages to unite fifth columnist cranks on both the far-left and far-right in this country.
 
Tipp blue said:
In a sensible world there would be a referendum in that area, if the people there see themselves as Russian then let it be.
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Leaders are not really into letting the serfs decide who they want as their masters, the result might not be what the leaders want.

I would also hazard a guess that if they did have one and voted to be ruled by Russia, then it would be the last referendum held in those parts for a long time
 
Mutzo Nutzo said:
The main event has kicked off tonight. Russian forces (not seperatist) pushing forward on Ukrainian positions around Luhansk. Russian jets also active in Ukrainian airspace.
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It's not really the main event until the tanks start rolling towards somewhere other than the existing front of the "breakaway republics", or bombing outside those regions start. If the Russians make a play for Kharkiv or Kyiv, it's on.

It's clear that the sword is poised, and I can't recall a situation where eleventh-hour diplomacy resulted in a country at this level of readiness backing off. If all Putin is looking for is something he can sell as a 'W', he can seize Luhansk and Donetsk, claim that the rest of the forces were to contain a possible Ukranian response elsewhere, and walk away.

I don't think that's likely. The disposition of forces pretty much screams out that he's going to make a play for Kharkiv and Kyiv, though they could just be there to force Ukraine to divide its military rather than respond in strength to the eastern incursion.

It's not clear to me whether the assets in Crimea are just there to hold the line, or to cut off resupply lines to Luhansk and Donetsk and assist in mopping up everything east of the Dnieper. It doesn't look like enough to make a play for Odessa. I think he's staying east of the Dnieper in the short run.
 
Martin Alvito said:
It's not really the main event until the tanks start rolling towards somewhere other than the existing front of the "breakaway republics", or bombing outside those regions start. If the Russians make a play for Kharkiv or Kyiv, it's on.

It's clear that the sword is poised, and I can't recall a situation where eleventh-hour diplomacy resulted in a country at this level of readiness backing off. If all Putin is looking for is something he can sell as a 'W', he can seize Luhansk and Donetsk, claim that the rest of the forces were to contain a possible Ukranian response elsewhere, and walk away.

I don't think that's likely. The disposition of forces pretty much screams out that he's going to make a play for Kharkiv and Kyiv, though they could just be there to force Ukraine to divide its military rather than respond in strength to the eastern incursion.

It's not clear to me whether the assets in Crimea are just there to hold the line, or to cut off resupply lines to Luhansk and Donetsk and assist in mopping up everything east of the Dnieper. It doesn't look like enough to make a play for Odessa. I think he's staying east of the Dnieper in the short run.
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I doubt tanks will roll anywhere, any attack will be from the air, and Ukraine can't stop that, they'll fold very quickly once it happens.
 
Tipp blue said:
Military will go where it's deployed.. like I said it is what should be happening.
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Which military ? Will Luxembourg send a battalion ? Will Belgium ? Will Italy or Spain ? Will Holland or France ?. Exactly who do you think will be there ? NATO is a wonderful ideal, but many of the countries only join to be protected, they don’t want to do any actual fighting for another country. Those that will fight will inevitably be from English speaking countries, as always…..
 
Tipp blue said:
I doubt tanks will roll anywhere, any attack will be from the air, and Ukraine can't stop that, they'll fold very quickly once it happens.
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They'll have to be in unison: airborne forces alone would not be enough to take and hold long key targets against their (Ukrarine's) standing army.

The Russians will use airborne forces, but it's likely that columns of tanks and mechanised infantry will plough along to reach them ASAP.

Encirclement will be the word of the day as, if you can pull it off, it can bright about the quick victory required. However, it's not as easy to do as to say.
 
peteblue said:
Which military ? Will Luxembourg send a battalion ? Will Belgium ? Will Italy or Spain ? Will Holland or France ?. Exactly who do you think will be there ? NATO is a wonderful ideal, but many of the countries only join to be protected, they don’t want to do any actual fighting for another country. Those that will fight will inevitably be from English speaking countries, as always…..
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You have kind of answered your own question then.
 
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