Current Affairs Ukraine

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WA Toffee said:
I'm sure he does have a clear plan of what he wants. He is not letting people know, and blindsiding them by making various statements, but that is all just part of his negotiating tactics. We (as in the general public) will have no clue what he really wants, but Putin will be crystal clear
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Indeed, but of course people would prefer to read Twitter, lying media outlets and expect a set of politicians in power who’ve repeatedly failed in nearly every modern crisis to sort this out by means of gestures and statements.

This could be the defining crisis of our times and, unfortunately, I see one side preparing for it and one mostly not.
 
tsubaki said:
Indeed, but of course people would prefer to read Twitter, lying media outlets and expect a set of politicians in power who’ve repeatedly failed in nearly every modern crisis to sort this out by means of gestures and statements.

This could be the defining crisis of our times and, unfortunately, I see one side preparing for it and one mostly not.
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To be honest, I don't really think the politicians are the ones doing all the hard work - it is the ambassadors, secret agents etc that are gathering all the intelligence and working out the best strategy - essentially playing chess with their Russian equivalents. Politicians are just the ones that move the pieces they are told to
 
WA Toffee said:
I'm sure he does have a clear plan of what he wants. He is not letting people know, and blindsiding them by making various statements, but that is all just part of his negotiating tactics. We (as in the general public) will have no clue what he really wants, but Putin will be crystal clear
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I think you are correct, mate, though it seems clear it has not gone as he had believed it would.
 
WA Toffee said:
I'm sure he does have a clear plan of what he wants. He is not letting people know, and blindsiding them by making various statements, but that is all just part of his negotiating tactics. We (as in the general public) will have no clue what he really wants, but Putin will be crystal clear
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I'm really not sure about that, mate. I know it seems incredibly inept for someone in such a powerful position, but I actually suspect that there was no Plan B for the invasion, and everything Putin planned to do was based on a swift and complete takeover of Ukraine. I don't think a lengthy and bloody stalemate, with the most key objectives not achieved was remotely in the bloke's head. I guess by now, he must be formulating an idea of what he'll settle for, but the longer things go on like this, the worse his bargaining position, rather than better, so his settlement position might have to keep changing.
 
WA Toffee said:
To be honest, I don't really think the politicians are the ones doing all the hard work - it is the ambassadors, secret agents etc that are gathering all the intelligence and working out the best strategy - essentially playing chess with their Russian equivalents. Politicians are just the ones that move the pieces they are told to
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Sadly I see almost no evidence this is the case - if competent people were running things, we’d see things like the UK increasing and reforming defence spending, boosting food production and supplies, genuine reform to financial, IT and political structures to prevent further attacks and so on.

There’s none of that, just gestures. This is what we saw with COVID too, with experts trumped by politicians.
 
tsubaki said:
Sadly I see almost no evidence this is the case - if competent people were running things, we’d see things like the UK increasing and reforming defence spending, boosting food production and supplies, genuine reform to financial, IT and political structures to prevent further attacks and so on.

There’s none of that, just gestures. This is what we saw with COVID too, with experts trumped by politicians.
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yeah, you are probably right. Definitely in a lot of cases it is their rich mates that have been telling which pieces to move, I am probably more hoping than expecting they are listening to the correct people this time. Which, at the moment, they do seem to be doing
 
Glasshalffull said:
I'm really not sure about that, mate. I know it seems incredibly inept for someone in such a powerful position, but I actually suspect that there was no Plan B for the invasion, and everything Putin planned to do was based on a swift and complete takeover of Ukraine. I don't think a lengthy and bloody stalemate, with the most key objectives not achieved was remotely in the bloke's head. I guess by now, he must be formulating an idea of what he'll settle for, but the longer things go on like this, the worse his bargaining position, rather than better, so his settlement position might have to keep changing.
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Oh absolutely he is not going to get prize A, whatever that was. My comment was just that he knows what his prize A is, not that he is going to get it
 
Seanjd said:
Yes, I think he cares about diplomacy if it means he gets what he wants. That’s for negotiators to explore and perhaps it’s impossible to deliver without serious successions on NATO’s/Ukraine’s side, which is why I said before it’s all about how willing either side is to bend. In my opinion, though, it’s the only way we will achieve ceasefire without becoming aggressors.

I don’t think anything I’ve written up until now can be taken as sympathetic towards Putin and Russia. I think you’ve misunderstood.
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Just wanted to apologise if I misunderstood ;)
 
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