Current Affairs Ukraine

[Big Sams Undies]

Hahaha, I love the way they’ve all been parked on the drives…God bless mud……

Coward tactics to use civilian houses essentially as human shields to prevent them from being targeted by Ukraine.

Fingers crossed that they got picked off one by one after bailing from their vehicles.

 

[Frenk]

This is the Ukraine thread. Take your American politics elsewhere…

This thread is littered with politics. ?

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This thread is littered with politics. ?

Indeed

Lebedev: The KGB Spy Who Helped Put Putin in the Kremlin

John Sweeney digs deeper into the past of Alexander Lebedev, whose connections to the Russian President and the British Prime Minister are a source of major public concern

bylinetimes.com

 

[Gwladys St. Glory]

Fullscreen the video...someone appears to be running from the scene (at the very end), amidst the smoke, in the same direction the tank was heading...can't be the driver. Granted I'm looking at this on a stupidly large screen, so it may be hard to notice for some. Strange...poss BS video.

 

[Gwladys St. Glory]

Fullscreen the video...someone appears to be running from the scene (at the very end), amidst the smoke, in the same direction the tank was heading...can't be the driver. Granted I'm looking at this on a stupidly large screen, so it may be hard to notice for some. Strange...poss BS video.

Could be a part...tire etc...looked like legs at first.

 

[WA Toffee]

If they wish to join, Finland and Sweden should be admitted immediately. Once Putin‘s military collapses within the next couple of weeks and he’s forced out, we should also immediately offer Ukraine membership and really shove Putins nose in the crap……

I read today that NATO doesn't offer membership to any country with a disputed border, so Ukraine can't get admitted currently.

Since that was one of his pretexts for the war, I wonder why the west hasn't made more of this?

 

[Martin Alvito]

I read today that NATO doesn't offer membership to any country with a disputed border, so Ukraine can't get admitted currently.

Since that was one of his pretexts for the war, I wonder why the west hasn't made more of this?

On a purely factual basis, that's a lie. The US and Canada still have several long-running border disputes.

In principle, that's fairly accurate. NATO would not admit a country with the kind of border dispute which had recently prompted or was likely to prompt a shooting war...unless the country in question was West Germany, whose border dispute was more or less the reason for the alliance in the first place. The US and its principal Western allies determined that they had little interest in being drawn into a conflict over the disposition of, say, South Ossetia or Crimea.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Ukraine absolutely, and desperately wants NATO involvement, if nothing else to strengthen their hand at the conference table. I am more skeptical about the Polish, Czech and Slovenian governments. Poland has every reason to want the strongest possible NATO commitment to defend NATO territory, and to escalate short of WMD exchange as a consequence. That's the hand that they've been playing up until now, though I don't know how committed they are to that approach. The Czechs and Slovenians have a better dirt situation, and I have a hard time seeing them as provocateurs. Someone like @Bruce Wayne might be able to weigh in on the situation on the ground in Czechia, and prove me wrong at least in terms of the immediate politics.


He didn't end up with a long-term separatist conflict in Georgia, though. He forced Georgia to accede to letting go of his sympathizers and walked. He more easily could have taken much of Georgia if he really wanted. I wouldn't have wanted to pacify an insurgency there either, though. Trying to dig insurgents out of the Caucasus is just asking for trouble. See: eastern Afghanistan and its own mountain range that the British, Soviets and United States all broke their teeth on.

In the case of Ukraine, the dirt is more favorable from an attacker's perspective but they have 10x the people. This necessitates a lot more boots to pacify an insurgency, and other posters have highlighted some of the evidence from over the years that despite internal divisions, the Ukrainians respond strongly to threats to their identity and circle up the wagons when those threats occur. Sure, some of that evidence might be a clip from Seinfeld, but the clip is believable (and funny), which is the point. If the clip weren't believable, it would tell us something about who they are.

What Putin probably wants in Ukrainian politics is influence, more than the dirt. Reality is that Ukraine has made a decent chunk of Russian natural gas exports from pipelines crossing their territory vanish over the years. The dirt would also be as good as it gets from the perspective of NATO launching disabling counterforce missile strikes against his land-based forces. From his perspective, these are the threats.

The narrative seems to be that Putin went into Ukraine whole-hog because of the cultural linkages, and thought that he would be welcomed with open arms, but I think that's wrong. I think he went in as hard as he did because of the stakes. I don't think he expected to be welcomed, but I also think he believed he could project more hard power than it turned out he could. I think he expected to roll up the dirt east of the Dnieper fairly easily, and produce a failed state incapable of joining NATO while driving a hard bargain for peace.

You are, of course, welcome to dispute the non-factual portions of that argument. It's my assessment. It doesn't mean I'm right. I'm no expert on Ukrainian or Russian politics. I know an awful lot about the system more broadly, but I won't presume to claim area specialty. To use a poker analogy, I can put Putin on a range based on the available information. I can't necessarily put him on a hand.

This perhaps sums it up

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Bruce, she actually said about being in Dublin but to remember that the U.K. was behind/supporting them. Now, do you have anything, and I mean anything positive to say about the U.K. throughout this, because you are becoming more like a Putin mouthpiece or Corbyn copy……

I'm honestly not sure what the UK has done that is positive throughout all of this. You may argue that Britain has been generous in the supply of arms, but I'm sure that has nothing to do with the recent enormous rise in BAe's share price

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I'm honestly not sure what the UK has done that is positive throughout all of this. You may argue that Britain has been generous in the supply of arms, but I'm sure that has nothing to do with the recent enormous rise in BAe's share price

As you asked though Pete, there is this

Boris Johnson tells The Economist about his anti-Russia coalition

The British-led Joint Expeditionary Force is moving quickly against Russia

www.economist.com

 

[FrenchDarrenBent]

Let's hope Putin takes the opening Zelensky has made here to end this stupidity.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Angered at the Kremlin, China's ambassador to Ukraine said he admired the resistance: "I have seen how great the unity of the Ukrainian people is, and that is their strength. We will respect the path chosen by the Ukrainians, because this is the sovereign right of every nation. "​

Furie la Kremlin, ambasadorul Chinei in Ucraina se declara admirator al rezistentei: "Am vazut cat de mare este unitatea poporului ucrainean, iar asta inseamna puterea sa. Vom respecta calea aleasa de ucraineni, pentru ca acesta este dreptul suveran

China nu va ataca niciodata Ucraina, dar o va sprijini economic si politic, a anuntat marti ambasadorul Chinei in Ucraina, Fan Xianrong. Ambasadorul a tinut sa ii stranga mana sefului administratiei militare regionale din Lvov, Maxim Kozytski. „China si Ucraina sunt parteneri strategici, anul...

www.aktual24.ro

Great bunch of lads

 

[spectateur]

Isn't odd, that Ukraine target Russian tanks, helicopters, basically their military, and Russia targets residential buildings, hospitals, and fleeing civillians?

Well they're not going to bomb their own buildings and shoot their own people are they. There's only the ruskies to shoot at.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Angered at the Kremlin, China's ambassador to Ukraine said he admired the resistance: "I have seen how great the unity of the Ukrainian people is, and that is their strength. We will respect the path chosen by the Ukrainians, because this is the sovereign right of every nation. "​

Furie la Kremlin, ambasadorul Chinei in Ucraina se declara admirator al rezistentei: "Am vazut cat de mare este unitatea poporului ucrainean, iar asta inseamna puterea sa. Vom respecta calea aleasa de ucraineni, pentru ca acesta este dreptul suveran

China nu va ataca niciodata Ucraina, dar o va sprijini economic si politic, a anuntat marti ambasadorul Chinei in Ucraina, Fan Xianrong. Ambasadorul a tinut sa ii stranga mana sefului administratiei militare regionale din Lvov, Maxim Kozytski. „China si Ucraina sunt parteneri strategici, anul...

www.aktual24.ro

Great bunch of lads

Except Taiwanese sovereignty

 

[Lobster Johnson]

Except Taiwanese sovereignty

And Tibetan sovereignty