Current Affairs Ukraine

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Can China broker a behind the scenes peace deal, (that talks down Putin from the ledge he's backed himself onto, with a story he can feed to the people at home) that East and West can both live with (Ukraine won't have a say, their role will be like it or lump it) and emerge as a World Statesman like hero and thus gain a lot of face
 
I agree, but sadly when there are autocratic rulers acting like nutters and trying to move to a position in which they are untouchable, it is a worry and as economic levers are all we have had outside of war or submission.
Without giving it too much credit, it's probably noticeable that "most" of the conflicts of the last 50 years or so have been among those countries largely outside the global supply chains. Yes, you've had civil wars in certain resource-rich countries, but rarely have there been wars between nations that are plugged into the economic system.
 
Can China broker a behind the scenes peace deal, (that talks down Putin from the ledge he's backed himself onto, with a story he can feed to the people at home) that East and West can both live with (Ukraine won't have a say, their role will be like it or lump it) and emerge as a World Statesman like hero and thus gain a lot of face
Potentially. Putin needs a face saving result to even consider stopping. Could it include keeping Sweden and Finland out of full membership of NATO also?

I honestly can't see any outcome that doesn't reward Putin's aggression.
 
Potentially. Putin needs a face saving result to even consider stopping. Could it include keeping Sweden and Finland out of full membership of NATO also?

I honestly can't see any outcome that doesn't reward Putin's aggression.

If they wish to join, Finland and Sweden should be admitted immediately. Once Putin‘s military collapses within the next couple of weeks and he’s forced out, we should also immediately offer Ukraine membership and really shove Putins nose in the crap……
 
If they wish to join, Finland and Sweden should be admitted immediately. Once Putin‘s military collapses within the next couple of weeks and he’s forced out, we should also immediately offer Ukraine membership and really shove Putins nose in the crap……
How about offering NATO membership to all European countries unreservedly but non European countries leave. War would be over in seconds.
 
It probably won't happen but if you consider the implications of the west allowing itself to become reliant on Russian commodities and Chinese manufacture and commodities then you might see a large strategic gaff that we might want to unpick - even if there was some pain in doing so.

Such a move if made could be viewed as a potential vehicle to withdraw and reclaim some of the the economic power that we have handed over.

I think China will see this which is reflected in both Russia and China working to dedollarise themselves in a move that in one area would take away the threat of sanctions whilst maintaining our reliance upon them.


From a wider BRIC perspective


I do feel though that China will be as shocked as Russia by the way that not only the the wests governments have gone gung ho in its sanctioning of Russia but more so at the reaction of big business withdrawing too. It would appear sensible for them not to expose themselves to this level of economic threat. A snip from a recent Bloomerg interview with China's Foreign Minister pointing to this.



Crazy times and seems crazy that humans seem to have a superpower in consistently cocking things up.
I agree we need to unpick it but my concern now is that we've backed ourselves into a moral corner where we'd have to do to China what we've done to Russia if they do certain things. It'd be less a slow unpicking and more of a collapsing of the supply chain.

They have a lot less regard for their people - despite saying they dont want sanctions, would they call our bluff and take their consequences as a trade off for the chaos it'd cause us? It sounds like just helping Russia with supplies would bring down the hammer of the public opinion cancel culture on them and put pressure on for sanctions, never mind if they went after Taiwan
 
I agree we need to unpick it but my concern now is that we've backed ourselves into a moral corner where we'd have to do to China what we've done to Russia if they do certain things. It'd be less a slow unpicking and more of a collapsing of the supply chain.

They have a lot less regard for their people - despite saying they dont want sanctions, would they call our bluff and take their consequences as a trade off for the chaos it'd cause us? It sounds like just helping Russia with supplies would bring down the hammer of the public opinion cancel culture on them and put pressure on for sanctions, never mind if they went after Taiwan
They have been building a autocratic/dictatorial alliance over many years that clearly do not like rules or, western rules. Imagine a world in which the world order is set in agreement between these sorts!

From last year


Also, is you look at a map of dictatorships globally, though we have some as strategic allies it is quite shocking that such a situation exists in 2022. :(

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