Current Affairs Ukraine

[tsubaki]

Yes, for more renewables and probably will mean that countries like ourselves would need to get the nuclear power back up. Woe is not us.

Also the Azeri/Turkish gas line is viable and working currently. As I said - not unsolvable as far as problems go.

Plus this is all assuming Putin is alive by the end of 2023. Also "no exports until 2023" is reasonable - currently no one wants to touch them anyway? Businesses and more backing out of Russia, most things from Russia being rejected or removed... I mean it's already happening currently.

The key bit being "countries like ourselves" - the rest of the world needs a lot of things from Russia, which is why they've not gone along with the sanctions as it is.

How are they going to react when they are being outbid for food just so we can have twenty different types of bread or pasta in the shops? When famine is across continents? We could easily (and very quickly) find an overwhelmingly large refugee problem or hostile coalition against us that we'd have to deal with, on top of rampant inflation here, with Putin rearmed and with our main competitor (China) suffering absolutely none of the side effects. By 2024 the Yanks might have left us in the lurch as well.

 

[peteblue]

If the gloves came off NATO would end the RuAF in 24 hours.

And Putin knows this. Hence his references to nuclear….but we all know that this simply will not happen…

 

[DualityNSNO]

It will affect oil, wheat, coal, some medicines, precious metals, wood, fertalisers, vehicle parts and computer parts from what I can gather. To what extent I don't know. UK had over 2 billion of trade with Russia I think as well. Im not sure how it plays out but things definitely won't be getting cheaper. Of all on the list gas, oil, coal, wheat and fertalisers are definitely the most concerning but again I don't know the amounts that were being exported

They do export the things you mention, but by far the biggest proportions go to the fuel, and wheat is quite a lot but again, not world ending.

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus fwiw for values/amounts.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

The financial clout for what? It's not like they're lacking the weapons to begin with.

There's a madman sitting on a pile of bombs, it would be a massive success if we don't get civilian casualties in this most horrible way, sadly.

I see your point, but sadly this has played out in recent history perhaps even as long as the Roman Empire, Supplies and logistical support is a necessity. A conquering force to stay in a meaningful policing way to get a mere pittance in pay it just won't last. Their financial infrastructure is sick and will be on life support very soon. Ukraine is fighting for their home they are not going anywhere and will constantly be a burden to a occupying force.

 

[DualityNSNO]

The key bit being "countries like ourselves" - the rest of the world needs a lot of things from Russia, which is why they've not gone along with the sanctions as it is.

How are they going to react when they are being outbid for food just so we can have twenty different types of bread or pasta in the shops? When famine is across continents? We could easily (and very quickly) find an overwhelmingly large refugee problem or hostile coalition against us that we'd have to deal with, on top of rampant inflation here, with Putin rearmed and with our main competitor (China) suffering absolutely none of the side effects. By 2024 the Yanks might have left us in the lurch as well.

I'm from Bulgaria, so we're very directly affected by them in general mate - gas, wheat, some commodities.

We already have huge problems from the ones you've mentioned, the refugee part even more so because of Russia's current actions.

The UK has different problems to begin with, with most of them being created by the UK.

Hopefully we don't reach a point where Putin is rearmed (or exists) and the sanctions to Russia are lifted... Be interesting (and vital) who they pick after him, however.

 

[DualityNSNO]

I see your point, but sadly this has played out in recent history perhaps even as long as the Roman Empire, Supplies and logistical support is a necessity. A conquering force to stay in a meaningful policing way to get a mere pittance in pay it just won't last. Their financial infrastructure is sick and will be on life support very soon. Ukraine is fighting for their home they are not going anywhere and will constantly be a burden to a occupying force.

It's already on life support. Which is why I hope we don't reach the desperate times that call for desperate measures.

Putin will absolutely demolish a region if he has to and will have no problem to rule over rubble imo. Hope we don't reach that point.

 

[peteblue]

I think NATO E3 data is being shared with Ukraine so they’ll know the corridors to fly in.

I just wonder whether Zelenky’s reached out to Bennet of Israel for data/info/help, as the Israeli Air Force have repeatedly managed to fool the Russian s300 systems in Syria.

As we have said many times before, Russia has put a lot into its air defence systems. But as anyone, like yourself, has been involved in actual operations, or anyone, like myself, who has been engaged in designing aircraft, will know, you don’t find out until it’s tried. Ukraine are doing the test bed trialling for all sorts of our stuff at the moment, and we are watching how Russia both applies its force and defends its force.…..

 

[peteblue]

maybe a little too hung-ho from melol

But if they had the assets in place the strike packages alone would effectively finish the Russian forces in Ukraine as a viable fighting force.

I can just imagine the carnage that the Apaches alone would have on those strung out Russian columns.

They would be burning hulks….

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

It's already on life support. Which is why I hope we don't reach the desperate times that call for desperate measures.

Putin will absolutely demolish a region if he has to and will have no problem to rule over rubble imo. Hope we don't reach that point.

It just hasn't sunk in to him yet. His age is a worry as he could take everything with him. That is why the West is playing the long game and leaving him some room to process and recalculate instead on living on high octane emotion.

 

[peteblue]

Air-air and air-ground

And ground to air…..

 

[gonetomorrow]

It’s a massive gamble, but the whole of the west is now behind him, the much vaunted Russian military have been shown up and to be frank, Putin has shot his bolt……

Well, thank goodness for that. Thanks again Batman.

 

[peteblue]

It just hasn't sunk in to him. His age is a worry as he could take everything with him. That is why the West is playing the long game and leaving him some room to process and recalculate instead on living on high octane emotion.

He has family and Kids, no one burns themselves at his age…..

 

[slipstream86]

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/air-war-over-ukraine-the-first-days/

Interesting article from the Royal Aeronautical Society on the state of the air war so far. It's a few days out of date now but still a good summary of things.

 

[DualityNSNO]

It just hasn't sunk in to him. His age is a worry as he could take everything with him. That is why the West is playing the long game and leaving him some room to process and recalculate instead on living on high octane emotion.

Yeah, you're right. Shameful thing is at first he was allowed (much like an Austrian fellow some 80 or so years ago, huh) to do whatever because of the financial implications and because "nah he wouldn't".

Welp. He would, it turns out.

For what it's worth - don't think it will sink in, that's not a consideration that's been done. It will be more propaganda, more "Russian power" shouts and we will continue this.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

The key bit being "countries like ourselves" - the rest of the world needs a lot of things from Russia, which is why they've not gone along with the sanctions as it is.

How are they going to react when they are being outbid for food just so we can have twenty different types of bread or pasta in the shops? When famine is across continents? We could easily (and very quickly) find an overwhelmingly large refugee problem or hostile coalition against us that we'd have to deal with, on top of rampant inflation here, with Putin rearmed and with our main competitor (China) suffering absolutely none of the side effects. By 2024 the Yanks might have left us in the lurch as well.

The Yanks won't leave. What little I can relay is the UK and the US are joined at the hip and really I can't suggest anything more to the remark.