Current Affairs Ukraine

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Mutzo Nutzo said:
It’s their piss-poor planning and execution that is so startling.

I’ll use the first Gulf war as an example. In that one the coalition forces first undertook an air war that lasted for a month before we even thought about committing ground forces.

As part of that air war we systematically took out the Iraqi air force, the Iraqi air defence, command and control and destroyed their capability to manufacture weapons and ammunition - then we set about degrading their ground forces.

Then and only then did we launch the ground offensive.

These clowns just waltzed right in straight into hell. They are getting exactly what they deserve. It’s just amateurish, they totally underestimated Ukraine’s armed forces.
Click to expand...

Again, how much of that is true? Our papers are full of how amateurish they are because of things they've seen on Twitter, on satellite photos and what paid experts and anonymous sources say. That all might be true, but its at least as likely (probably more likely given the Russian army's history) that it isn't and that they are regrouping (possibly even staying there under orders from home, given what the JP article claimed).

I mean, we can't conceive of sending light infantry into a city unsupported because of the waste of life. We couldn't conceive of dealing with terrorists by pumping nerve gas into a theatre and killing dozens of hostages as well, or wrecking a school full of kids in order to get at other terrorists either. The Russian military doesn't have the same concerns or practices that we claim to, and never has.

Or to use another example - we've all been told how our sanctions are wrecking the Russian economy, how soon he won't be able to pay his soldiers or anyone else and they'll rise up against him. Has anyone seen any actual evidence of that? Of empty shelves in stores? Of angry mobs on the street? Our only evidence is the rouble's value against the dollar, which is essentially pointless given the trading has mostly been cut off and they are getting plenty of dollars for energy sales anyway.

Then there is our government who, despite coverage, hasn't actually taken that much meaningful action yet - two people sanctioned, Russian reserves "held" and a promise of vague financial powers possibly but only when it doesn't hurt us too. We've given the Ukranians some Javelins but that appears to be it; we aren't even rearming ourselves (which is urgently, urgently needed).
 
tsubaki said:
Again, how much of that is true? Our papers are full of how amateurish they are because of things they've seen on Twitter, on satellite photos and what paid experts and anonymous sources say. That all might be true, but its at least as likely (probably more likely given the Russian army's history) that it isn't and that they are regrouping (possibly even staying there under orders from home, given what the JP article claimed).

I mean, we can't conceive of sending light infantry into a city unsupported because of the waste of life. We couldn't conceive of dealing with terrorists by pumping nerve gas into a theatre and killing dozens of hostages as well, or wrecking a school full of kids in order to get at other terrorists either. The Russian military doesn't have the same concerns or practices that we claim to, and never has.

Or to use another example - we've all been told how our sanctions are wrecking the Russian economy, how soon he won't be able to pay his soldiers or anyone else and they'll rise up against him. Has anyone seen any actual evidence of that? Of empty shelves in stores? Of angry mobs on the street? Our only evidence is the rouble's value against the dollar, which is essentially pointless given the trading has mostly been cut off and they are getting plenty of dollars for energy sales anyway.

Then there is our government who, despite coverage, hasn't actually taken that much meaningful action yet - two people sanctioned, Russian reserves "held" and a promise of vague financial powers possibly but only when it doesn't hurt us too. We've given the Ukranians some Javelins but that appears to be it; we aren't even rearming ourselves (which is urgently, urgently needed).
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Yeah, pretty well documented.

Also very well beaten up.
 
oh, and to continue with the depressing theme:

The handling of nuclear material at the Chornobyl NPP has been put on hold for the time being, the regulator added. The site, located in an Exclusion Zone, includes decommissioned reactors as well as radioactive waste facilities. The regulatory authority said it could only communicate with the plant via e-mail.

To help protect the country’s nuclear facilities, the Director General has expressed his readiness to travel to the Chornobyl NPP, or elsewhere, to secure the commitment to the safety and security of all Ukraine’s nuclear facilities from the parties of the conflict.

The Director General also indicated that remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chornobyl NPP had been lost. The Agency is looking into the status of safeguards monitoring systems in other locations in Ukraine and will provide further information soon.
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Update 15 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | International Atomic Energy Agency

www.iaea.org www.iaea.org
 
tsubaki said:
Again, how much of that is true? Our papers are full of how amateurish they are because of things they've seen on Twitter, on satellite photos and what paid experts and anonymous sources say. That all might be true, but its at least as likely (probably more likely given the Russian army's history) that it isn't and that they are regrouping (possibly even staying there under orders from home, given what the JP article claimed).

I mean, we can't conceive of sending light infantry into a city unsupported because of the waste of life. We couldn't conceive of dealing with terrorists by pumping nerve gas into a theatre and killing dozens of hostages as well, or wrecking a school full of kids in order to get at other terrorists either. The Russian military doesn't have the same concerns or practices that we claim to, and never has.

Or to use another example - we've all been told how our sanctions are wrecking the Russian economy, how soon he won't be able to pay his soldiers or anyone else and they'll rise up against him. Has anyone seen any actual evidence of that? Of empty shelves in stores? Of angry mobs on the street? Our only evidence is the rouble's value against the dollar, which is essentially pointless given the trading has mostly been cut off and they are getting plenty of dollars for energy sales anyway.

Then there is our government who, despite coverage, hasn't actually taken that much meaningful action yet - two people sanctioned, Russian reserves "held" and a promise of vague financial powers possibly but only when it doesn't hurt us too. We've given the Ukranians some Javelins but that appears to be it; we aren't even rearming ourselves (which is urgently, urgently needed).
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I can’t comment on the impact of sanctions but I can comment on military planning, prep and mission execution.

Fact is they launched a ground offensive without achieving air superiority, that alone is unforgivable in military terms.

Ukrainian Air Force is still active, it’s air defence system is still operational, it’s TB2 drones are roaming about unmolested and malleting Russian tanks at will.

I know Russians military doctrine differs from the western powers but this is basic stuff that applies to any military venture. The US has intel that they expected to have completed their mission and subdued Ukraine in just 15 days.

Also they have no encrypted comms everything and I mean everything is on open channels - all being listened to and used against them. Another example of recklessness and poor planning.

Yes they have a massive army, but they can’t win this and the longer it goes on then the better chance of a more favourable negotiated deal for Ukraine.

As for ourselves and other European nations watch this space. I think we will see large increases in GDP spend on defence across the board.
 
DualityNSNO said:
You've not seen any of the rioters getting beaten up, "random checks" of people going around the town square in Moscow, etc.?

Until the police are on Putin's side - he's got no problems.
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Those are peace protesters, not people there because of the harshness of sanctions. I know we’ve been told they will take time to be effective but I’d question whether we will get that time.
 
DualityNSNO said:
What?

They were against him but without massive protests. The war happened and more and more hit the streets because of him and because the war happened.

One follows the other, they're not amoebas ffs.
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They’ve had regular big protests over there; in fact there were many more out when Navalny was on hunger strike last year:

www.bbc.com

Alexei Navalny: Thousands across Russia defy ban on protests

Arrests are made as protesters demand the release of the opposition leader, who is on hunger strike.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

This isn’t “the sanctions are working because they are on the streets”, it might be far from that.
 
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