Current Affairs Ukraine

[Martin Alvito]

This, in spades. It seems fairly clear that Crimea, Donbass and an unbroken chain of territory linking the two is the absolute minimum that Russia is looking to seize permanently.

I suspect Putin was planning to take Kiev and absolutely everything east of the Dneipr, then "magnanimously" announcing a ceasefire. The Dneipr makes for a fairly significant strategic barrier, to satisfy misplaced Russian fears of a NATO conventional assault, and his commanders will have anticipated that Ukrainian troops would blow most of the bridges as they retreated, making it a more defensible barrier. It effectively cuts Ukraine in half, and the strategic value of Crimea, both militarily (provides year-round deepwater port for Russian fleet) and industrially (confers control of territorial water, therefore ownership, of areas of significant oil and natural gas reserves) is firmly established.

Ukraine will obviously want the return of every inch of territory seized by Russia since 2014, plus total reparations for the massive amounts of damage to roads, infrastructure, cities and everything else, plus the thousands of murdered civilians. As negotiations go, it's hard to see any common ground where either side is going to be happy to compromise.

Actually landing on a point in the bargaining range would depend upon the situation on the ground.

A lot of things have to obtain. Ukraine's government would have to believe that they cannot retake any territory that they choose to cede and that continuing the fight is too costly. Russia's government would have to believe that any reparations are cheaper than the cost of continued sanctions and any materiel/lives that they would have to expend to retain any territory that they cede back. EU/NATO governments would either have to believe that they could end sanctions and let war crimes slide without paying a price at the ballot box, or that WWIII results if they don't back down.

My guess would be that the third parties will be the problem. It's difficult to see them backing off with the media handcuffing them to a hard line against Russia. That, in turn, emboldens Ukraine's government. They will continue to think that they can get Putin to capitulate, or have his regime ultimately collapse, and the war will drag on. Zelenskyy puts on a really good show for his domestic audience with respect to griping about the absence of a no-fly zone, but I would assess present levels of EU/NATO support as beyond his wildest possible dreams prior to the invasion.

The problem with collective security isn't just that my purely defensive alliance is your security threat. It's that mechanisms such as alliances and sanctions make it so much harder to hammer out a deal before the war breaks out (due to uncertainty over parties' willingness to honor their commitments/threats and how hard they will try) and after the war breaks out by putting a whole bunch more parties at the conference table.

 

[blulouie]

They’ve not insisted on it (demilitarisation) there though, nor the “denazification”. In terms of movement it does count as some.

I think the world & his dog know what the intention is no matter which way its dressed up.

Ukraine to adopt Neutral Country status is another term.

 

[Tree13]

Even if Putin and his cabal were to be abducted by aliens there is no way Crimea would be ceded. Anyway moot point as Zelenskiy has apparently told Russia to stick their proposal up their donbass.

Point of accuracy: Russia seized Crimea by military coup. As such, it is not lawfully held by Russia, therefore Russia cannot, by definition, cede Crimea to anyone. It is not's Russia's to cede.

Forgive a grammar pedant his moment of anal accuracy.

 

[tsubaki]

I think the world & his dog know what the intention is no matter which way its dressed up.

Ukraine to adopt Neutral Country status is another term.

I disagree, I think the world see this as NATO overreach at the moment and are worried about oil / gas / food price rises.

If we can make it’s clear it is about two countries trying to take over the world then there will be much more support because whatever assistance / guarantees have been given will inevitably be seen in that light.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Yarrgh]

Yikes. That's going to wake some people up.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

Yikes. That's going to wake some people up.

 

[blulouie]

I disagree, I think the world see this as NATO overreach at the moment and are worried about oil / gas / food price rises.

If we can make it’s clear it is about two countries trying to take over the world then there will be much more support because whatever assistance / guarantees have been given will inevitably be seen in that light.

There's a reason for the expansion of NATO ( typified by Finland & Sweden )
as being witnessed on the streets of Ukraine.

Tbh in my lifetime ive never seen the whole world ( including the Russian people ) unite to condemn this barbaric attrosity.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Vlad won't be singing this today then.

 

[The Gueye Science]

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine

Germany will continue to buy natural gas, oil and coal from Russia despite Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, the government in Berlin said Monday. Germany and Europe are too dependent on Russian energy imports for power, heating and industrial production to be able to cut trade links wit

www.wsj.com

Meanwhile, renewables prices:

I don't think Europeans or Americans realise just how grim this could get. What is far scarier is that their governments don't seem to, either. An economy with decisive power over the global price of food, fuel, and dozens of metals etc required for basic industrial production can command power in a way that economies based on spreadsheets, management consultants, real estate bubbles, insurance, HR directives and instagram influencers cannot, regardless of how much smaller its paper GDP may be. And that's without Russia, which has rapidly closed in on most of its objectives in Ukraine, feeling the need to show off its cyber capabilities.

Edit: What historians will find particularly mad is that all of this has happened despite both Russia and the West fundamentally agreeing that Ukraine will never be an EU or NATO member.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine

Germany will continue to buy natural gas, oil and coal from Russia despite Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, the government in Berlin said Monday. Germany and Europe are too dependent on Russian energy imports for power, heating and industrial production to be able to cut trade links wit

www.wsj.com

Meanwhile, renewables prices:

I don't think Europeans or Americans realise just how grim this could get. What is far scarier is that their governments don't seem to, either. An economy with decisive power over the price of food, fuel, and dozens of metals etc required for industrial production can command power in a way that economies based on spreadsheets, management consultants, real estate bubbles, insurance, HR directives and instagram influencers cannot, regardless of how much smaller its paper GDP may be. And that's without Russia, which has rapidly closed in on most of its objectives in Ukraine, feels the need to show off its cyber capabilities.

Grim as it will be it will be better than WW3 and a possible nuclear war, in my humble opinion.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[tsubaki]

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine

Germany will continue to buy natural gas, oil and coal from Russia despite Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, the government in Berlin said Monday. Germany and Europe are too dependent on Russian energy imports for power, heating and industrial production to be able to cut trade links wit

www.wsj.com

Meanwhile, renewables prices:

I don't think Europeans or Americans realise just how grim this could get. What is far scarier is that their governments don't seem to, either. An economy with decisive power over the global price of food, fuel, and dozens of metals etc required for basic industrial production can command power in a way that economies based on spreadsheets, management consultants, real estate bubbles, insurance, HR directives and instagram influencers cannot, regardless of how much smaller its paper GDP may be. And that's without Russia, which has rapidly closed in on most of its objectives in Ukraine, feeling the need to show off its cyber capabilities.

Edit: What historians will find particularly mad is that all of this has happened despite both Russia and the West fundamentally agreeing that Ukraine will never be an EU or NATO member.

I agree with most of this but not the last paragraph - this has exposed weaknesses in the Russian military and has galvanised the West for a moment. A cessation of hostilities may be temporary but any time that could reduce dependence on the Russians is going to be vital.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Have a client who trades with rosneft. I agree with the sanctions but people should be aware that it’s not just Russian organisations that will be affected