Current Affairs Ukraine

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PhilM said:
While not specifically talking about the point you were discussing, in terms of the general direction this is a really important point.

There is a lot of information / intelligence that both sides will know, but for the obvious reasons won't disclose the nature of the intel and its source.

If the Western leaders believe an attack is imminent, I suspect their conclusions are based on credible lines. If it's all sabre rattling, I don't really see their reasoning.
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The other point to be made here is that we know some things about the parties, their preferences and the intensity of those preferences with relative certainty, based on their long-term positions on those matters.

It's very important to know the difference between what we know and what we think we know. Some of the parties' public positions are probably posturing, since this is an adversarial bargaining game where both sides are incentivized to conceal their true preferences in order to get the best deal at the conference table before a war breaks out.

The $64,000 question is how serious Putin is about his bargaining line. He's doing everything in his power to convince the West and Ukraine that he means business. As anyone that has played poker knows, that means either his hand is a monster or he's on a big bluff chasing the large amount of chips already in the pot.
 
Kev The Rat said:
Make no mistake with NATO and Russian forces facing off against each other, daily, in Eastern and Western Ukraine - which they would have to be under your 'surrender the east' proposal - you would be on the brink of war continuously.
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We are going to be facing that anyway though, in the Baltics and in Poland (and Hungary, Romania, Slovakia etc) if this is how the Russians are going to behave.
 
tsubaki said:
We are going to be facing that anyway though, in the Baltics and in Poland (and Hungary, Romania, Slovakia etc) if this is how the Russians are going to behave.
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Not sure Russia would accept part of the Ukraine anyway, they likely want the lot. I do think they have a particularly strong cultural tie to Ukraine compared to the other countries you mentioned and would be less interested in invading.
 
Kev The Rat said:
Not sure Russia would accept part of the Ukraine anyway, they likely want the lot. I do think they have a particularly strong cultural tie to Ukraine compared to the other countries you mentioned and would be less interested in invading.
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That is just a bizarre take - I’ve got close cultural ties to Jodie Comer but I don’t think it would be right to take over her house and life without her ongoing consent.
 
Gotta laugh at Russia and this stupid story about catching a group of supposed Ukrainian saboteurs. Who for some unknown reason decided to throw stealth and subterfuge to the wind and instead opted to tear around Russia in Ukrainian marked armoured vehicles!!!!
 
tsubaki said:
That is just a bizarre take - I’ve got close cultural ties to Jodie Comer but I don’t think it would be right to take over her house and life without her ongoing consent.
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maybe you want to read up on it then. its not bizarre to Russians. It really doesnt matter what we think does it.
 
tsubaki said:
I think probably that’s better advice for you to take, I mean you’ve completely written out the Ukrainian position there, as well as about a hundred years of history.
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I'm talking about how the Russians view it. They've got a history of subjugating nations. Im not saying its right BTW, just seeing things for how they actually are.
 
LinekersLegs said:

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Sky also reporting this.

Answers the question of what the address is about. His televised security council meeting earlier was highly suggestive that this was how the chips were falling, but this is important confirmation.

Kev The Rat said:
Think this is it now
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Most likely. The EU said earlier today that they will put sanctions in place in response (though probably not the full invasion package), at which point the bargaining window narrows and it's hard to see a way back.
 
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