Current Affairs Ukraine

[tsubaki]

All looking very worrisome, Putin to decide on recognising Luhansk and Donetsk later today which could start all this off.

TBF that is potentially a huge trap for him, he’s assuming the Ukrainians will kick off at that.

If instead they say “well, alright then, off you trot”, accept it and renounce claims then not only isn’t there a war but it also removes the biggest problem for them being in NATO (ie the ongoing border dispute). He could find himself looking very stupid quite quickly.

 

[Yarrgh]

TBF that is potentially a huge trap for him, he’s assuming the Ukrainians will kick off at that.

If instead they say “well, alright then, off you trot”, accept it and renounce claims then not only isn’t there a war but it also removes the biggest problem for them being in NATO (ie the ongoing border dispute). He could find himself looking very stupid quite quickly.

They know full well that it means no NATO application is possible or else they get taken over as simply as the Donbass and Crimea did.

The Donbass reaction will be what? A strongly worded response? Some ineffecticual sanctions with loopholes? No one will offer Ukraine NATO membership as that means they might have to fight. We lost this already and just have some protesting to hide behind.

Beating Russia is not via conflict but through stopping the kleptocrats in power and tying the country into the west via economic means and westernizing them into the fold. Dictators lose grip eventually, even Putin- that should be our target point.

 

[bigboy]

TBF that is potentially a huge trap for him, he’s assuming the Ukrainians will kick off at that.

If instead they say “well, alright then, off you trot”, accept it and renounce claims then not only isn’t there a war but it also removes the biggest problem for them being in NATO (ie the ongoing border dispute). He could find himself looking very stupid quite quickly.

Can't see that happening with them being in conflict since 2014 over these areas. And with the thoughts of them using the eastern territories as a pretext to invade towards Kiev, then Ukraine won't have the opportunity to join NATO.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Can't see that happening with them being in conflict since 2014 over these areas. And with the thoughts of them using the eastern territories as a pretext to invade towards Kiev, then Ukraine won't have the opportunity to join NATO.

agree, no chance of them renouncing Donbas.

 

[Martin Alvito]

TBF that is potentially a huge trap for him, he’s assuming the Ukrainians will kick off at that.

If instead they say “well, alright then, off you trot”, accept it and renounce claims then not only isn’t there a war but it also removes the biggest problem for them being in NATO (ie the ongoing border dispute). He could find himself looking very stupid quite quickly.

I'm not so sure that the chips land that way.

He's made it pretty clear that NATO membership and a Western troop buildup is war. Suppose the offer is extended, he strikes and replaces the government in Kiev with a puppet government that won't ratify. Technically, Ukraine is not yet a member, and Article 5 does not apply.

Things get real interesting inside NATO from there.

agree, no chance of them renouncing Donbas.

So this is really interesting. Renouncing the territorial claims is probably political suicide. Refusing to so do may be another kind of suicide.

I would hesitate to predict their actions in that scenario without a lot of information that is not public.

 

[tsubaki]

They know full well that it means no NATO application is possible or else they get taken over as simply as the Donbass and Crimea did.

The Donbass reaction will be what? A strongly worded response? Some ineffecticual sanctions with loopholes? No one will offer Ukraine NATO membership as that means they might have to fight. We lost this already and just have some protesting to hide behind.

Beating Russia is not via conflict but through stopping the kleptocrats in power and tying the country into the west via economic means and westernizing them into the fold. Dictators lose grip eventually, even Putin- that should be our target point.

I disagree with most of this.

What is the Ukrainian reaction going to be if the LPR and DPR are recognised, with most of the Russian Army already mobilized and ready to invade the rest of Ukraine? They are going to have to accept that they are gone regardless, as they already mostly do, and saying they accept that is only going to help with NATO membership.... and I don't think them getting in would be a long drawn out process, it is more likely to be just announced to prevent the sort of Russian response we have seen.

Yes, NATO doesn't want to fight but the threats coming out of Russia have been so serious and so explicit that NATO might just accept the risk and decide that if there is going to be a conflict its better to have it now rather than after he's occupied the rest of Ukraine, the Baltics etc.

WRT the last sentence though, I think that "tying the country into the west via economic means and westernizing them" is actually what the driving force for these antics is; as Russian citizens watch the rest of Eastern Europe go into the EU and slowly start to prosper it does fuel talk of wanting that for themselves. We saw this in Belarus in 2019 and we will see it in Moscow, too. The kleptocrats know what that means for them, hence this madness.

 

[PhilM]

I would hesitate to predict their actions in that scenario without a lot of information that is not public.

While not specifically talking about the point you were discussing, in terms of the general direction this is a really important point.

There is a lot of information / intelligence that both sides will know, but for the obvious reasons won't disclose the nature of the intel and its source.

If the Western leaders believe an attack is imminent, I suspect their conclusions are based on credible lines. If it's all sabre rattling, I don't really see their reasoning.

 

[tsubaki]

I'm not so sure that the chips land that way.

He's made it pretty clear that NATO membership and a Western troop buildup is war. Suppose the offer is extended, he strikes and replaces the government in Kiev with a puppet government that won't ratify. Technically, Ukraine is not yet a member, and Article 5 does not apply.

Things get real interesting inside NATO from there.

That is why I think that if this is what happens, Ukrainian membership is going to be an overnight thing with a few thousand airborne types flown into Kiev and then everyone wakes up in the morning to find its an accomplished fact.

Yes, its provocative but the threats and action coming out of Russia right now are only really likely to result in countries on the periphery of NATO from thinking they've got to join or be put into Putin's orbit (with all that entails). I mean, if they do invade Ukraine I honestly expect Sweden and Finland to join almost immediately (support for NATO membership in Sweden at least has gone up markedly since the end of the Cold War, almost always in response to the Russians doing or saying something outrageous like threatening to nuke Gotland).

 

[Kev The Rat]

That is why I think that if this is what happens, Ukrainian membership is going to be an overnight thing with a few thousand airborne types flown into Kiev and then everyone wakes up in the morning to find its an accomplished fact.

Yes, its provocative but the threats and action coming out of Russia right now are only really likely to result in countries on the periphery of NATO from thinking they've got to join or be put into Putin's orbit (with all that entails). I mean, if they do invade Ukraine I honestly expect Sweden and Finland to join almost immediately (support for NATO membership in Sweden at least has gone up markedly since the end of the Cold War, almost always in response to the Russians doing or saying something outrageous like threatening to nuke Gotland).

Not sure, but my thinking is, if Ukraine were guranteed 'overnight' membership of Nato, they would have given up Donbas ages ago. Why wouldnt they?

The fact they still fight bitterly for control of the east, suggests they've been told that even if they gave those up, they wouldnt be let in.

 

[tsubaki]

Not sure, but my thinking is, if Ukraine were guranteed 'overnight' membership of Nato, they would have given up Donbas ages ago. Why wouldnt you?

Ther fact they still fight bitterly for control of the east, suggests they've been told that even if they gave those up, they wouldnt be let in.

Because NATO would never have offered them that before now; Putin wasn't being as much of a threat to NATO members.

Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk are all far away and someone elses business but when Russia is on top of its normal antics threatening other countries (including long established democratic states), demanding the removal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe and potentially carrying out aggrandizement on the scale it is then what does NATO do?

I mean you can only have diplomacy and peace when all parties are acting fairly and honestly. The current Russian leadership is very, very far from doing either of those and I don't think we have much of a choice between appeasement again and standing up to it.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Because NATO would never have offered them that before now; Putin wasn't being as much of a threat to NATO members.

Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk are all far away and someone elses business but when Russia is on top of its normal antics threatening other countries (including long established democratic states), demanding the removal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe and potentially carrying out aggrandizement on the scale it is then what does NATO do?

I mean you can only have diplomacy and peace when all parties are acting fairly and honestly. The current Russian leadership is very, very far from doing either of those and I don't think we have much of a choice between appeasement again and standing up to it.

Arguably we appeased the Soviet Union for 40 years - I am not sure war in Europe is the acceptable trade off against 'unfairness and dishonesty'

 

[tsubaki]

Arguably we appeased the Soviet Union for 40 years - I am not sure war in Europe is the acceptable trade off against 'unfairness and dishonesty'

We didn't though - the Soviets were never as threatening or as seemingly random as Putin is now; they never had to be, because they were nowhere near as weak as he is.

 

[Yarrgh]

agree, no chance of them renouncing Donbas.

It's not even a question of renouncing them. They're "independent states" who can do what "they" want.

If Russia go in they go in "invited" and there ain't nothing we're going to do about it.

I am currently midway through a lecture about how Lughansk, Donetsk and several other oblast in South Ukraine are traditionally Russia and were skived off during Soviet times. Guess what's coming next if that's on Russian TV and media...

 

[Kev The Rat]

We didn't though - the Soviets were never as threatening or as seemingly random as Putin is now; they never had to be, because they were nowhere near as weak as he is.

Make no mistake with NATO and Russian forces facing off against each other, daily, in Eastern and Western Ukraine - which they would have to be under your 'surrender the east' proposal - you would be on the brink of war continuously.

 

[Kev The Rat]

It's not even a question of renouncing them. They're "independent states" who can do what "they" want.

If Russia go in they go in "invited" and there ain't nothing we're going to do about it.

I am currently midway through a lecture about how Lughansk, Donetsk and several other oblast in South Ukraine are traditionally Russia and were skived off during Soviet times. Guess what's coming next if that's on Russian TV and media...

My view is the entire Ukraine will fall back to Russian influence, possibly by the end of the year.