Current Affairs Ukraine

[spectateur]

There's a significant Russian speaking population in Estonia so them and Lithuania are far more likely than Poland.

There are large numbers of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in all the ex soviet republics, due to Stalin.
Since independence many are being discriminated against by the indigenous population.
I know a Kazakhstan Russian couple who had to leave because of the situation there. They first went to Russia but didn't like it there and have finished up in France, awaiting residency permit.
Point is re the baltic states, would Putin invade to protect the interests of the ethnic Russian minority.

 

[PhilM]

I just can't see anyone in NATO (the "big" countries that is) going to war to save Estonia. The same countries ignored Czech and only really cared about Poland after it was all far too late, and they showed in Afghanistan how happy they are to hotfoot it out of there.

It wouldn't get to war as I do sincerely believe that NATO would provide enough of a deterrent to stop Russia even considering it.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

It wouldn't get to war as I do sincerely believe that NATO would provide enough of a deterrent to stop Russia even considering it.

Why though? We've already seen that the nuclear deterrent is conditional on there being the right kind of conflict to warrant its use, and I kind of suspect a military deterrent would be likewise conditional on the right kind of nation needing defending.

 

[PhilM]

Why though? We've already seen that the nuclear deterrent is conditional on there being the right kind of conflict to warrant its use, and I kind of suspect a military deterrent would be likewise conditional on the right kind of nation needing defending.

Deterrence is the art of producing in the enemy the fear to attack. Our nuclear deterrent, while conditional, arguably worked throughout the Cold War and beyond.

We've currently got a battle group in Estonia and there's US and NATO forces in Poland, Lithuania and over key eastern parties of the bloc.

Within the next year, you'll likely see the numbers rise and right now Germany is actually seeking the return of UK troops back to the Rhine, which tells a tale.

Would Russia be willing to take the risk to attack the Baltic States with the risk of engaging NATO and, importantly, key nuclear nations?

It's a big gamble and one that the experts suspect they wont take any time soon because of NATO's position and the risk of engaging key parties.

Putting more troops in there just builds the deterrence further. Nobody wants a nuclear war including Russia, so the risk of starting one acts as the deterrent.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Deterrence is the art of producing in the enemy the fear to attack. Our nuclear deterrent, while conditional, arguably worked throughout the Cold War and beyond.

We've currently got a battle group in Estonia and there's US and NATO forces in Poland, Lithuania and over key eastern parties of the bloc.

Within the next year, you'll likely see the numbers rise and right now Germany is actually seeking the return of UK troops back to the Rhine, which tells a tale.

Would Russia be willing to take the risk to attack the Baltic States with the risk of engaging NATO and, importantly, key nuclear nations?

It's a big gamble and one that the experts suspect they wont take any time soon because of NATO's position and the risk of engaging key parties.

Putting more troops in there just builds the deterrence further. Nobody wants a nuclear war including Russia, so the risk of starting one acts as the deterrent.

Well they took Crimea and NATO did nothing. We won't do anything if they enter Ukraine. Where exactly is the evidence that NATO are willing to do anything coming from?

 

[PhilM]

Well they took Crimea and NATO did nothing. We won't do anything if they enter Ukraine. Where exactly is the evidence that NATO are willing to do anything coming from?

When we're talking about NATO members, the key point is Article 5 - Collective Defence.

Ukraine (and Crimea as part of it) wasn’t part of NATO; it still isn’t part of NATO. There’s the big difference in terms of response due to responsibilities.

Put simply, an attack against one member of NATO is considered an attack against NATO as a whole, with all allies involved. That's thirty countries versus one.

If you want evidence, Ukraine is under genuine threat and it's had no troop support, whereas for the Baltic States we've had more naval and air power deployed.

Bulgaria has had more air power sent to it, more troops in Poland et al. There's battle groups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and these will increase.

This alone is a sign that they're not going to stand back. I know that the UK may double its presence in Estonia alone!

 

[Bruce Wayne]

When we're talking about NATO members, the key point is Article 5 - Collective Defence.

Ukraine (and Crimea as part of it) wasn’t part of NATO; it still isn’t part of NATO. There’s the big difference in terms of response due to responsibilities.

Put simply, an attack against one member of NATO is considered an attack against NATO as a whole, with all allies involved. That's thirty countries versus one.

If you want evidence, Ukraine is under genuine threat and it's had no troop support, whereas for the Baltic States we've had more naval and air power deployed.

Bulgaria has had more air power sent to it, more troops in Poland et al. There's battle groups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland and these will increase.

This alone is a sign that they're not going to stand back. I know that the UK may double its presence in Estonia alone!

What was the collective NATO response to this attack on a member?

2007 cyberattacks on Estonia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In response to such attacks, NATO conducted an internal assessment of their cyber security and infrastructure defenses. The assessment resulted in a report issued to the allied defense ministers in October 2007.

A report. Ooh.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

At which I fully expect you to say "ah, but that's not the right kind of attack to elicit a response", and on we go.

 

[PhilM]

At which I fully expect you to say "ah, but that's not the right kind of attack to elicit a response", and on we go.

Of course it’s not the same. Cyber attacks occur all the time and would typically not justify a military response from ourselves, with the escalation it’d cause.

Although we do respond and did to the cyber attacks against Estonia, but the issue is we don’t talk about what we and others do in terms of digital war.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Of course it’s not the same. Cyber attacks occur all the time and would typically not justify a military response from ourselves, with the escalation it’d cause.

Although we do respond and did to the cyber attacks against Estonia, but the issue is we don’t talk about what we and others do in terms of digital war.

We responded with a report.

Incidentally, cyberattacks are increasingly regarded as an act of war, which makes sense, as knocking out critical infrastructure with a cyberattack is no different to doing so with a physical attack. When I've spoken with the Estonians, that's certainly how they regard it, which is why they have a cyber division of their military and are happy for young people to serve their military service within it.

Cyber Command – Estonian Defence Forces

mil.ee

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Incidentally, that is actually what NATO themselves say

NATO must actively deter, defend against and counter the full spectrum of cyber threats at all times – during peacetime, crisis and conflict – and at the political, military and technical level

https://www.nato.int/cyberdefence/

 

[ForeverBlue92]

Load of willy waving

 

[PhilM]

We responded with a report.

Incidentally, cyberattacks are increasingly regarded as an act of war, which makes sense, as knocking out critical infrastructure with a cyberattack is no different to doing so with a physical attack. When I've spoken with the Estonians, that's certainly how they regard it, which is why they have a cyber division of their military and are happy for young people to serve their military service within it.

Cyber Command – Estonian Defence Forces

mil.ee

No, as I said the real response hasn’t and won’t reach the press.

 

[tsubaki]

Well they took Crimea and NATO did nothing. We won't do anything if they enter Ukraine. Where exactly is the evidence that NATO are willing to do anything coming from?

Again, Ukraine is not a part of NATO. I'd also point out that Putin's antics here is strengthening NATO, not weakening it - it is resulting in a greater troop strength on the border and will in time result in bigger defence expenditures amongst European states and improved coordination; it might even result in further NATO expansion if they do invade Ukraine and its a bloodbath (since if they are going to attack anyway countries are going to need to defend themselves).

 

[Deleted member 48881]