Current Affairs Ukraine

[Yarrgh]

There's a significant Russian speaking population in Estonia so them and Lithuania are far more likely than Poland.

Good point. No idea about Estonian or Lithuanian relationship with Russia are at the moment. But both are EU and NATO members of some time.

I presume that they're untouchable and the Russians are focusing on forcing things in the east of Ukraine. If the situation stays as it is now I think that's it.

I'd offer up no NATO presence for an obligation to join the EU once Ukraine met the joining criteria. Putin saves face and keeps his bogeyman further away from the door. Ukraine gets eventual access to a political and economic structure that allows it to prosper. Longer term, Putin loses grip of his power and we get a re-set with Russia that benefits the Russian people and the entire region with the infrastructure in place on its doorstep to bring them into the fold.

 

[FrenchDarrenBent]

Agreed, the Baltic states are hard targets.

Would NATO risk lives for Lithuania?

No. Nobody would.

That's why only real soldiers and a smaller NATO would be effective.
It would also help if some European states paid a bit more instead on relying on the USA for defence.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I think you have to stand together for any member of NATO, otherwise what's the point of being a member?

Thin end of the wedge if we accept invasion of absolutely any of them.

Sure, in theory. But how many US troops are stationed in Europe? 65k? And declining year on year.

 

[Kev The Rat]

No. Nobody would.

That's why only real soldiers and a smaller NATO would be effective.
It would also help if some European states paid a bit more instead on relying on the USA for defence.

But they dont want to fight, and will not fight.

They have a mentality closer to France in WW2.

 

[Diogenes the Cynic]

Sure, in theory. But how many US troops are stationed in Europe? 65k? And declining year on year.

Escalation from Russia would see more troops I think.

The last thing the States wants is a rampaging Russia.

 

[Tipp blue]

As a neutral Irish man, who simply wants peace, I am really concerned about this escalation. I am acutely aware how a Serbian nationalist killing an Austrian heir to the throne ended up with millions dying including tens of thousands of Irish men.

Please God this backs off.

We aren't really neutral though are we? The US have been using Shannon as a refuelling stop for years, if the Russian wanted to stop there to refuel a bommer heading for New York they wouldn't be let.

 

[Wat Tyler]

No. Nobody would.

That's why only real soldiers and a smaller NATO would be effective.
It would also help if some European states paid a bit more instead on relying on the USA for defence.

Russia would not attempt to invade any of the Baltic states, they are all in NATO.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Russia would not attempt to invade any of the Baltic states, they are all in NATO.

The only reason that Ukraine isn’t in NATO is because it’s in a war

What does that tell you about NATO’s real intentions re. Getting involved in conflicts ?

 

[Wat Tyler]

The only reason that Ukraine isn’t in NATO is because it’s in a war

What does that tell you about NATO’s real intentions re. Getting involved in conflicts ?

What does it tell you about Russian intentions that they’re going to invade before they join NATO and become unattainable?

 

[Kev The Rat]

What does it tell you about Russian intentions that they’re going to invade before they join NATO and become unattainable?

They’ve been a war with it for 8 years already. It’s not a new development

 

[Bluerover]

We aren't really neutral though are we? The US have been using Shannon as a refuelling stop for years, if the Russian wanted to stop there to refuel a bommer heading for New York they wouldn't be let.

I am neutral. Our government has always had a warped version of neutrality.

 

[Wat Tyler]

They’ve been a war with it for 8 years already. It’s not a new development

Got nothing to do with what I said though: Russia would not attempt to invade any of the Baltic states, they are all in NATO.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Got nothing to do with what I said though: Russia would not attempt to invade any of the Baltic states, they are all in NATO.

Well like I said just using the example of Ukraine being refused entry into NATO, because it means they might actually have to fight.

My understanding is a Putin has designs on the Baltic states. How he achieves that is open to debate.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Good point. No idea about Estonian or Lithuanian relationship with Russia are at the moment. But both are EU and NATO members of some time.

I presume that they're untouchable and the Russians are focusing on forcing things in the east of Ukraine. If the situation stays as it is now I think that's it.

I'd offer up no NATO presence for an obligation to join the EU once Ukraine met the joining criteria. Putin saves face and keeps his bogeyman further away from the door. Ukraine gets eventual access to a political and economic structure that allows it to prosper. Longer term, Putin loses grip of his power and we get a re-set with Russia that benefits the Russian people and the entire region with the infrastructure in place on its doorstep to bring them into the fold.

I just can't see anyone in NATO (the "big" countries that is) going to war to save Estonia. The same countries ignored Czech and only really cared about Poland after it was all far too late, and they showed in Afghanistan how happy they are to hotfoot it out of there.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Well said Keir!