Current Affairs Ukraine

[orchard]

Lots of pro Russian bozos in here. Need exterminating off this site. Spread fake news and hate. Cretins.

Mate. That's a bit harsh. We've endured bozos in the EU thread and others for yonks. Trolls and bots, fair game, but things aren't always black and white, and bozos being bozos tend to get a bit carried away.

 

[Zatara]

Seeing them protests in Russia and the lines at ATM's its only a matter of time before normal Russian people start getting angry when the sanctions hit.

Wonder if he sees this coming?

Its fairly obvious...even a dimwit like me said it would be loco over there 7 days after SWIFT was suspended for Russia. Days of bank runs leading up to a crescendo of anger.

 

[catcherintherye]

If you require FX or physical cash as an individual, company, institution or bank and are unable to either:

1: Withdraw 'sizeable' funds quickly
2: Facilitate international bank transfers
3: Hold foreign currency

Then an IOU isnt going to help you and it certainly wont help the economy short/mid/long term as it will continue to sink.

Whenever FX and SWIFT open up again then the domestic currency will be massively devalued and the risk profile would be insane. How have you hedged the risk when you cant use FX?

If im running an investment vehicle would i be willing to do back door business with Russia if i could navigate the sanctions? Perhaps...but am i going to take such an enormous risk to lend currency over a long term period when the local currency is being printed at a very low rate? The timeframe risk is immense...in Russia of all places as well?

That makes no sense to me, how would you even get collateral from Russia or Russian companies?

The only thing i could see an investment vehicle doing is to go in and buy up stock using offshore vehicles at dirt cheap prices just like in the cowboy days in China.

To discount global examples of currency devaluation while providing examples of "The West/GS/Buffet" while stating that Russians are brought up as socialists also is illogical to me...

...it doesnt matter about the circumstances, if you have all these financial sanctions there is NO solution short term.

Crypto could have been the solution but currently theyre not setup for it as they were considering to ban it...now regulated it and build some kind of infrastructure around it.

Even then, what about the funds i cant use sat in my bank?

If the IOU idea happened then its not too dissimilar to when Abramovich used to buy up his colleagues stocks cheaply at payday until he accumulated a large amount of stock...which got him started.

The Oligarchs could simply do the same and the mafia wheel keeps turning.

Im amazed at the viewpoint that this is "small". Cut off the central banks reserves, cut off trade and FX capability and there is no way this is "small".



Yes i was amazed they didnt inflict the SWIFT measures within 24 hours along with the airspace bans, FX sanctions, Duma and Federation members offshore asset freezes and also the blacklisting of all Russian companies and individuals who are non-resident outside of Russia.

The gravity of such sanctions would surely have driven public opinion in Putin down to the abyss.

Also im not sure why theres been no private mercenaries sent over (at least not to my knowledge).

I dont think people feel it's small. It's more just counter productive in terms of the stated goals, beyond making the EU and UK feel good about themselves for bullying ordinary Russians.

It will be disastrous for the poorest, and likely see a further consolidation of power/resources in the hands of the wealthy.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Another one is Belarus - I assume that is the model that Putin wants for Ukraine?

Clearly. He wants the pieces missing from the Commonwealth of Independent States tightly integrated and under his thumb.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Lots of pro Russian bozos in here. Need exterminating off this site. Spread fake news and hate. Cretins.

the rat, ghost and frenchdarren should go straight to ignore mate

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I’m assuming that as soon as he talks nukes his generals are in serious discussion behind his back.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Zatara]

I dont think people feel it's small. It's more just counter productive in terms of the stated goals, beyond making the EU and UK feel good about themselves for bullying ordinary Russians.

It will be disastrous for the poorest, and likely see a further consolidation of power/resources in the hands of the wealthy.

Totally disagree.

Look at Putin threatening the nuclear option while trying to brainwash the public.

Now with heavy financial sanctions the public will be up in arms for a week. Corporates and institutions will be furious and everyone will think back to Putin stating he was going into Ukraine.

If it takes 7 days of economic pain for all of Russia for a statement made of how Putin has done this to them by invading then its a wise move.

I believe the Russian public may even be happy to make such a sacrifice if it means hes punted out.

We also await the hague findings are Ukraine asked them to intervene.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

 

[DualityNSNO]

I’m assuming that as soon as he talks nukes his generals are in serious discussion behind his back.

Well, I think we'll have one of the 2 (maybe 3) possible outcomes within the next 24-48hrs if that is the case.
1) he lives and bombs the everliving crap out of things, thus escalating the war; maybe using said nukes to an extent;
2) his generals see he's clearly mental at this point and realise that Putin isn't Russia and stop him, probably by force, probably killing him;
3) he himself realises that this is MAD (as in, mutually assured destruction) and drops this, steps down and gets sentenced for his crimes, hopefully death sentence.

3 is the most Unicorn-land out of all of them, but not that impossible... right?

 

[Walken]

We are talking about Russia itself I can only think of twice in over a hundred years - not bad for a regime with that much blood on its hands.

'Not bad' the language you have used throughout this crisis is really weird

 

[Runub]

This all seems a little odd to me. I am no expert but I always had Putin down as a shrewd operator and a nimble politician but he seems to have got this wrong big time and is painting himself into a corner which could be dangerous given he is not the most stable person or is something more subtle going on?

 

[DualityNSNO]

This all seems a little odd to me. I am no expert but I always had Putin down as a shrewd operator and a nimble politician but he seems to have got this wrong big time and is painting himself into a corner which could be dangerous given he is not the most stable person or is something more subtle going on?

I am legitimately afraid (for myself as well) that he's just unstable and this will pop off something bigger and personally doubt any subtlety.

Hope I am extremely wrong.

 

[tommytowne]

The other "N" word being voiced now.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Well, I think we'll have one of the 2 (maybe 3) possible outcomes within the next 24-48hrs if that is the case.
1) he lives and bombs the everliving crap out of things, thus escalating the war; maybe using said nukes to an extent;
2) his generals see he's clearly mental at this point and realise that Putin isn't Russia and stop him, probably by force, probably killing him;
3) he himself realises that this is MAD (as in, mutually assured destruction) and drops this, steps down and gets sentenced for his crimes, hopefully death sentence.

3 is the most Unicorn-land out of all of them, but not that impossible... right?

So scary that we are at this point