Current Affairs Ukraine

[Zatara]

and how long will that take to bite?

and the idea we wont get hit as well.....

If those sanctions were in place Monday then i would say Wednesday there would be the kickoff...then say 7 days for the population to be in utter panic.

 

[Kurt.]

Think we’re all blessed on GOT to be able to have ringside seats for the 24 hour running commentary on this inhumane attack on Ukraine .. brought to you live by #The Zat’N’Rat show

 

[Zatara]

He thought he would have had a quicker surrender. He probably doesnt want to destroy the infrastructure of the country either.

He was wrong, although he still seems to be ready for talks, which will never be accepted.

God help the people of Ukraine, if he decides to show his actual military hand via artillery and troops.

I wish there was an easy way out.

Putin has not shown hes willing to have peace talks.

All hes done is invited Ukrainian leadership to go into enemy territory where he'll probably hold them hostage.

Wow. Need more of this in more cities but these are very brave people

There has to be a trigger for more protestors to join.

 

[tsubaki]

There has to be a trigger for more protestors to join.

TBF I am not sure it needs one - the Russian government doesn't seem to have prepared the population for the war, or for the losses. When they start having soldiers' mums protesting in numbers (as we saw with the Kursk families) it could get very tricky for him - its not easy to spin grieving or concerned parents of service personnel as traitors.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Putin has not shown hes willing to have peace talks.

All hes done is invited Ukrainian leadership to go into enemy territory where he'll probably hold them hostage.




There has to be a trigger for more protestors to join.

yes, which is why I said his offer will never be accepted

the immediete way out is not sanctions, - the country will not descend into disorder in 7 days time - nor is a 'popular uprising' due to anti war sentiment happening within a few weeks - see my earlier posts about punitive action to protests in Russia.

If those two are off the table, what do you suggest?

 

[Zatara]

Two military transport planes were to depart for Poland on Sunday, prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ office said in a statement, without adding further details about what equipment they would be carrying.
A separate shipment of humanitarian aid was also to be sent the same day, accompanied by deputy defence minister Nikos Hardalias, it added.

The Russian embassy in Athens pushed back on Sunday, saying it did not bomb “inhabited areas and villages”.
In response, Greek foreign ministry spokesman Alexandros Papaioannou on Sunday accused the embassy of “fake news”. “Orthodox bombs killed Orthodox ethnic Greeks,” he said according to AFP, and summoned the Russian embassy.



The European Union is weighing up banning Russian flights in its airspace, an EU official told Reuters.
Foreign ministers will discuss the plans later on Sunday. Many countries have already taken the decision individually but an EU-wide measure could be part of a new package of sanctions.

 

[Kev The Rat]

I cannot project the future end of any current authoritarian state with any degree of certainty. I can say that the present Chinese state derives its legitimacy from the prosperity it produces in its cities, which is probably why they've taken such aggressive steps to ensure that prosperity continues.

They may be sowing the seeds of stagflation that brings the regime down, or they may not. I can tell you what the possible endgames are. I can't tell you when, or how, one of them might obtain. They come out of crises, which are by their nature unpredictable beasts.

I can say that, in the past, many authoritarian states have ended in the manner I describe. I cannot say whether or not China has cracked the code, and if they have I will never know because in the long run we are all dead.

Another one is Belarus - I assume that is the model that Putin wants for Ukraine?

 

[Zatara]

TBF I am not sure it needs one - the Russian government doesn't seem to have prepared the population for the war, or for the losses. When they start having soldiers' mums protesting in numbers (as we saw with the Kursk families) it could get very tricky for him - its not easy to spin grieving or concerned parents of service personnel as traitors.

How many losses would be needed? Its such a huge country that I imagine the protests would need to be enormous for word to spread.

yes, which is why I said his offer will never be accepted

the immediete way out is not sanctions, - the country will not descend into disorder in 7 days time - nor is a 'popular uprising' due to anti war sentiment happening within a few weeks - see my earlier posts about punitive action to protests in Russia.

If those two are off the table, what do you suggest?

Its not an offer...there is no 'real' peace talk offer.

If the sanctions are as serious as claimed then 7 days it will take to really bite. No more.

 

[Kev The Rat]

How many losses would be needed? Its such a huge country that I imagine the protests would need to be enormous for word to spread.




Its not an offer...there is no 'real' peace talk offer.

If the sanctions are as serious as claimed then 7 days it will take to really bite. No more.

there is no way any realistic sanction will bring Russia to its knees in 7 days Zat, be serious.

 

[glorydaze]

hope these brave people are ready for the labour camps

These brave people probably are as they have morals, unlike you.

 

[Zatara]

there is no way any realistic sanction will bring Russia to its knees in 7 days Zat, be serious.

We'll have to see then as if they do what they claimed for central bank and SWIFT then 7 days is my guess before major runs on the banks have caused chaos.

 

[Kev The Rat]

These brave people probably are as they have morals, unlike you.

you cant say anyone who doesnt want to risk being put in jail for 5 years, and see their family potentially persecuted, hasnt got morals for not marching on the streets.

 

[Glasshalffull]

there is no way any realistic sanction will bring Russia to its knees in 7 days Zat, be serious.

You can count the number of times I agree with Kev on the fingers of no hands, but he's clearly right here. This is a war that's been, say, a year in the making, so Russia will be prepared to tolerate stuff that makes them go "Ow! That smarts". Conceivably, an accumulation of many smarting measures over a long time might make them think , or if one of the measures turns out to be more painful than anyone thought, but I don't imagine there's any short term effective sanction solution.

 

[tsubaki]

How many losses would be needed? Its such a huge country that I imagine the protests would need to be enormous for word to spread.

I dont think its a matter of number of losses, its a matter of them getting involved in protests (which could have happened already).

Once that has happened it is a very difficult problem for the government to deal with, as its a thing that literally everyone in the world can understand and sympathise with.

 

[tsubaki]

you cant say anyone who doesnt want to risk being put in jail for 5 years, and see their family potentially persecuted, hasnt got morals for not marching on the streets.

"the only thing necessary....."