Current Affairs Ukraine

[Martin Alvito]

TBF I am not sure that is true - it is certainly what successive Tsarist / Soviet / Russian governments think is true, but the lesson from history over there is that when you criminalize / suppress legitimate protest to such an extent that they are stifled it often results in a buildup of pressure, not people giving up whatever they were concerned about and blithely accepting it.

I mean the Tsarist state was overthrown by protest, the Soviets and their satellites were overthrown by protests, pro-Russian governments in Ukraine have twice been removed by protests and its not beyond the realms of possibility that these protests could remove Putin, too.

Engaging in state repression is like building a dam. Empirically, it has been shown that something like 1-2% of a nation's population has to become engaged to the point that they will take to the streets before you can expect real political change.

What happens when you build the dam is that, when there's a clear and obvious signal suggesting that it's time to come out of the woodwork, they come out in droves. Crises are less frequent but more severe, just as if you build a dam.

This is part of why repressive states tend to fall to protest when they do not fall to external aggression. They essentially create, in the future, the conditions that will destroy them from within through their actions today.

 

[PhilM]

This is where I refer you to Machiavelli's argument that a prince cannot afford conventional morality, because doing things that way causes more human suffering than it prevents. It is a very persuasive qualitative analysis, all the more so for predating the scientific method and modern scholarship.

This stuff is fundamentally dirty, because life is dirty. Our governments are run by people that, by and large, did dirty things to get there. Short of us all rising up collectively as one and saying, "No more!", which is hard to arrange, things will continue on in this manner.

If there's a silver lining to social media, it's that it makes something like that easier in addition to making things like the Capitol riot easier.

I wrote these a while ago and is still stands. With moral hindsight we can question Dresden, but at the time the decision to bomb was justifiable although regrettable.

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/most-heinous-british-war-crime.91762/page-15#post-4927667

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/british-imperialism.110221/page-17#post-7822819

 

[tsubaki]

As some of you have probably guessed I have connections in Russia, not all of whom support the war and I’ve been told that the situation is very extreme there, Putin retains full control and the idea that it’s moving towards a near term change is implausible.

It’s now akin to North Korea in terms of freedom of speech/association.

NK is a closed society though - Russia isn't (at least not yet). Yes, he is repressive and yes he imprisons / kills his enemies but to keep that up requires an awful lot of effort, money and resources. It will, eventually, fail.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Engaging in state repression is like building a dam. Empirically, it has been shown that something like 1-2% of a nation's population has to become engaged to the point that they will take to the streets before you can expect real political change.

What happens when you build the dam is that, when there's a clear and obvious signal suggesting that it's time to come out of the woodwork, they come out in droves. Crises are less frequent but more severe, just as if you build a dam.

This is part of why repressive states tend to fall to protest when they do not fall to external aggression. They essentially create, in the future, the conditions that will destroy them from within through their actions today.

Has China? Perhaps you can say economic freedoms are the trade off its made for political security?

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

As some of you have probably guessed I have connections in Russia, not all of whom support the war and I’ve been told that the situation is very extreme there, Putin retains full control and the idea that it’s moving towards a near term change is implausible.

It’s now akin to North Korea in terms of freedom of speech/association.

One of the main reasons that the Soviet Union collapsed was economic - while sanctions may bite it will take years to bring Russia to its knees - we may even end up taking ourselves down with it.

Ironically your guests on your favourites the BBC have just been making that point (sort of) - that our Govt have not necessarily been upfront about the economic cost to us of sanctions.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Personally, I think they are indistinguishable on an incompetency level. It’s a joke that Americans chose either of them.

It really isnt
One is a racist, sexist monster…the other isn’t. I mean you couldn’t be more wrong

 

[Wat Tyler]

 

[Martin Alvito]

I wrote these a while ago and is still stands. With moral hindsight we can question Dresden, but at the time the decision to bomb was justifiable although regrettable.

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/most-heinous-british-war-crime.91762/page-15#post-4927667

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/british-imperialism.110221/page-17#post-7822819

Good reads. The similar discussion in this side of the pond is that regarding the atomic bomb. Interestingly, Truman seems to catch a lot less flak than your wartime leadership gets over Dresden.

This differential can be explained away through means other than racism, but that requires a cultural argument which at least slouches towards racism.

 

[PhilM]

Some are reporting that the Russian advance has halted and maybe in retreat, although that’s not confirmed. The death figures from the other day look more plausible.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Has China? Perhaps you can say economic freedoms are the trade off its made for political security?

I cannot project the future end of any current authoritarian state with any degree of certainty. I can say that the present Chinese state derives its legitimacy from the prosperity it produces in its cities, which is probably why they've taken such aggressive steps to ensure that prosperity continues.

They may be sowing the seeds of stagflation that brings the regime down, or they may not. I can tell you what the possible endgames are. I can't tell you when, or how, one of them might obtain. They come out of crises, which are by their nature unpredictable beasts.

I can say that, in the past, many authoritarian states have ended in the manner I describe. I cannot say whether or not China has cracked the code, and if they have I will never know because in the long run we are all dead.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Some are reporting that the Russian advance has halted and maybe in retreat, although that’s not confirmed. The death figures from the other day look more plausible.

Hasn't retreated as per Ukraine news sources apparently, but has been slowed down and the sirens in Kiev haven't sounded in several hours.

They have a regime currently where only police, army, emergency services and armed volunteers are allowed on the streets. Everyone who doesn't abide by this will be considered a "Russian sympathiser or spy", which has halted the Kiev evacuation (as well as elsewhere).

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Some are reporting that the Russian advance has halted and maybe in retreat, although that’s not confirmed. The death figures from the other day look more plausible.

Seems it (Kharkiv offensive) didn't go well for them.

 

[Frenk]

It really isnt
One is a racist, sexist monster…the other isn’t. I mean you couldn’t be more wrong

I think your getting dragged away from incompetency, but never mind. I never said Trump wasn’t any of those. ?

 

[PhilM]

Hasn't retreated as per Ukraine news sources apparently, but has been slowed down and the sirens in Kiev haven't sounded in several hours.

They have a regime currently where only police, army, emergency services and armed volunteers are allowed on the streets. Everyone who doesn't abide by this will be considered a "Russian sympathiser or spy", which has halted the Kiev evacuation (as well as elsewhere).

Sorry, I was referring to Kharkiv.

 

[DualityNSNO]

Sorry, I was referring to Kharkiv.

My bad really as I misread that and decided to drop some info that I know, hah. Work and all....