Current Affairs Ukraine

[davek]

Dave, I suggest you read about manoeuvre warfare. Sometimes the wider strategic objectives are not simply to hold ground. It is to gain your objectives. This can sometimes involve withdrawing from poorly defensible positions to only return later.

I'm looking myself at the wider theatre. I'm looking at what happens to Russian long range fires in various areas of the front, and particularly in the south as a result of the Kursk incursion.

Since this seems to be one of the strategic objectives of the Ukrainians and/or since the Russian army is a heavily artillery based force.



I'm also not one to say that the Ukraines have stopped all Russian supplies or in that area. What that has done is impeded Russian movement in the area

What is actually going on is more nuanced and isn't a binary black/white situation as you try and make out

In manoeuvre warfare you can be as often tactically withdrawing or manoeuvring, as much as a advancing.

There's a steady and relentless progress by Russian forces in the east of Ukraine. Capturing a strategic hub like Pokrovsk will be a huge headache for Kyiv. Rail lines and highways used to re-supply Ukrainian forces in the east will be wiped out.

The Kursk incursion by Ukraine is of political importance only.

 

[stipe]

There's a steady and relentless progress by Russian forces in the east of Ukraine. Capturing a strategic hub like Pokrovsk will be a huge headache for Kyiv. Rail lines and highways used to re-supply Ukrainian forces in the east will be wiped out.

The Kursk incursion by Ukraine is of political importance only.

Diversion of troops and reserves though, its humiliation for Putin, i mean he needs to react.
Ukraine probably counting on that, in next weeks and months you sure can expect Russian counter-offensive in that area and that probably gonna give Ukrainians on Eastern front some breathing room.

Also airforce and infamous glide bombs, Kursk incursion diverted big chunk of Russian airforce there who so far played main part in blunting/slowing Ukrainian advance (considering their lack of manpower there).
That sure helped to Ukrainian soldiers in the East.

 

[Goat]

 

[Rita_Poon]

What does preventing russian anti air systems in the zone Ukraine have taken allow the F16's free rein to target if anything?

 

[Damo_1878]

There's a steady and relentless progress by Russian forces in the east of Ukraine. Capturing a strategic hub like Pokrovsk will be a huge headache for Kyiv. Rail lines and highways used to re-supply Ukrainian forces in the east will be wiped out.

The Kursk incursion by Ukraine is of political importance only.

You don't know that

 

[Yarrgh]

You don't know that

Why do you think he is wrong?

My own suspicion is that Ukraine thought that the Kursk offensive would drag Russian forces away from Pokrovsk to stop Russia reaching or at least not capturing it before winter. If everyone goes pear shaped with US support then they get to keep it and have a chunk of Russia for use in negotiations.

It doesn't look to have slowed down Russia and they have seen a lot of losses of their better fighting forces and equipment now Russia is responding without apparently overextending their capabilities.

Belarus have increased their border forces and complained about Ukrainian violating their airspace when attacking Kursk. Ukraine have seen an increase to the threat to their northern border now and will potentially have to drag even more resources to cover this region.

How Ukraine manages their operations in Kursk is now critical. Currently they are dictating what is happening in Kursk but as always in war, it's not won with a single battle.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

The Kursk situation is as much of a political decision as military for Putin.

 

[bicycleheader]

Why do you think he is wrong?

My own suspicion is that Ukraine thought that the Kursk offensive would drag Russian forces away from Pokrovsk to stop Russia reaching or at least not capturing it before winter. If everyone goes pear shaped with US support then they get to keep it and have a chunk of Russia for use in negotiations.

It doesn't look to have slowed down Russia and they have seen a lot of losses of their better fighting forces and equipment now Russia is responding without apparently overextending their capabilities.

Belarus have increased their border forces and complained about Ukrainian violating their airspace when attacking Kursk. Ukraine have seen an increase to the threat to their northern border now and will potentially have to drag even more resources to cover this region.

How Ukraine manages their operations in Kursk is now critical. Currently they are dictating what is happening in Kursk but as always in war, it's not won with a single battle.

In fairness they said he doesn't know it, not that he is wrong

And it's correct. Dave doesn't know but as usual writes opinion as if fact and has no time for allowing for a bit of balance and humility in their posts

 

[Yarrgh]

The Kursk situation is as much of a political decision as military for Putin.

More so even.

Objectively the right level of response is in effect now after being caught with their pants down. He needs victories in Donbass whilst the Ukrainian army is still in Kursk though otherwise questions will be asked.

 

[Yarrgh]

In fairness they said he doesn't know it, not that he is wrong

And it's correct. Dave doesn't know but as usual writes opinion as if fact and has no time for allowing for a bit of balance and humility in their posts

Point conceded.

I also think that Dave in that post was correct though. Taking Pokrovsk absolutely gooses Ukrainian logistics and effectiveness on the Eastern front.

 

[PhilM]

chances Ukraine are planting more mines in that taken territory?

There doesn't appear to be any evidence to suggest they're doing this in any numbers. If they plan to relinquish the land eventually, possibly so.

How come they didn't move immediately there two weeks ago when this whole thing started, considering chaos it seems it would be easy picking?
Element of surprise is long gone now, hopefully its not gonna be repeat of Belgord checkpoint attempt of week ago where Russians awaited them and repulsed them with artillery and air strikes.

Or maybe Russians themselves realize its undefendable and retreat behind the river, considering supply problem it seem it would be smart thing to do (tactically).

Are you referring to the UA or the RA? While we can surmise Ukrainian intentions, the different stages of the plan will only come obvious as it progresses.

As part of that, the individual elements will change as the situation changes - plans never survive combat. For me, it appears they've seen an opportunity.

This was posted nine hours ago, and it shows the current situation as it's believed to be. If Ukraine can push towards the NW (relative to map orientation)...

... the line from west of Rylsk becomes at serious risk, so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine doesn't try to close it. Did they plan from the start? Only they will know.

What does preventing russian anti air systems in the zone Ukraine have taken allow the F16's free rein to target if anything?

@Mutzo Nutzo is the air man so will have much greater knowledge on the situation that myself, but I was under the impression the F16s would be much further back.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Great article - Mick knows his stuff

 

[davek]

Why do you think he is wrong?

My own suspicion is that Ukraine thought that the Kursk offensive would drag Russian forces away from Pokrovsk to stop Russia reaching or at least not capturing it before winter. If everyone goes pear shaped with US support then they get to keep it and have a chunk of Russia for use in negotiations.

It doesn't look to have slowed down Russia and they have seen a lot of losses of their better fighting forces and equipment now Russia is responding without apparently overextending their capabilities.

Belarus have increased their border forces and complained about Ukrainian violating their airspace when attacking Kursk. Ukraine have seen an increase to the threat to their northern border now and will potentially have to drag even more resources to cover this region.

How Ukraine manages their operations in Kursk is now critical. Currently they are dictating what is happening in Kursk but as always in war, it's not won with a single battle.

From today's Financial Times: In short - the Kursk incursion has been a gamble that hasn't paid off. It's just accelerated Ukraine's losses in the east and handed control over the war completely to Putin and the Ukrainians are in disarray. Putin has even turned to forces in Crimea and the south to shift up to Kursk rather than stop the rapid advance through the Donetsk oblast.....

Military briefing: Kursk incursion heaps pressure on Ukraine’s east​

Kyiv’s forces have in two weeks seized more land in Russia than Moscow has in Ukraine all year — transforming perceptions about their capabilities and boosting morale among Ukrainians.But that stunning operational success has yet to deliver one crucial objective: diverting Russia’s manpower and easing pressure in the hottest battlefields in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow is steadily advancing.Russian soldiers are still grinding their way through Ukrainian defences, capturing villages and towns and bringing Moscow closer to its stated goal of complete control of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.On Monday, Russian troops appeared to have captured nearly all of the town of Niu-York, entered nearby Toretsk and were encroaching on the logistical hub of Pokrovsk.One Ukrainian artillery brigade commander in eastern Ukraine told the Financial Times that part of the reason for the Russian advance was Kyiv moving its scarce resources north.His troops were back to rationing shells for their canons — the first time since US aid to Ukraine was held up by Congress — because ammunition had been reallocated for the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.


Ukraine has also moved upwards of 10,000 troops, including many of its elite airborne forces and mechanised brigades, from Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, where the fiercest battles are under way, according to officials involved with the operation.At least 20 Ukrainian units are confirmed to be involved in the Kursk incursion, according to military analysts. Some of those were meant to be reserve forces to help shore up fracturing defensive lines and provide a reprieve for troops who have fought without rest for months or even years.Even in the days before setting off for Kursk, Ukrainian defences in Donetsk region were “showing cracks”, said one senior Ukrainian official familiar with military operations.He told the FT that Russian forces had achieved “tactical success” in Donetsk and more advances were likely unless the situation turned around.


With much of its reserves directed to Kursk, Ukraine will struggle to fill defensive gaps and counter various Russian threats, said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based group that tracks the war.“Russia doesn’t have trouble mobilising troops whereas Ukraine still has trouble mobilising the number needed to hold and conduct operations in Donetsk,” he told the FT.Officers and infantry troops on the eastern front also now face even longer frontline stints without rotations, several told the FT.Two lieutenants serving in a brigade that had been on the front in Donetsk region before being sent to Kursk said that in more than two years of fighting they had each only had a month-long break.Another soldier said he had gone months fighting near Toretsk without any rest before being ordered to Kursk. “Nobody can ask [for a rotational break] now,” he said. “We were the reserves but now we are here.”


While Kyiv does not comment on casualties, the incursion has already come at a material cost: Ukraine lost at least 51 pieces of valuable military equipment, including German Marder vehicles, US-made Stryker vehicles and Himars rockets, compared with 27 such losses on the Russian side, according to the open-source intelligence researcher Naalsio.President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his top general, Oleksandr Syrsky, have given reassurances that the eastern front is just as important as the Kursk incursion.Zelenskyy said last week that Donetsk was where “most of the Russian attacks occur — and the maximum of our defensive attention is concentrated there”. Syrsky said the situation in the east “remains difficult, but under control”.US officials said this week without providing details that they had seen signs of Russia moving forces from the south and east of Ukraine north to Kursk.But those appeared to be moved from the southern axis and occupied Crimea — locations that were not likely to have an impact on the situation in Donetsk. The Lithuanian defence ministry said some troops had also been moved from Russia’s Kaliningrad region.Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts tracking the war said there had been no clear indication that Russia was moving a consequential amount of forces from the hottest area on the frontline in its east.“Despite the successes of the defenders in the Kursk region, the Russians have not yet transferred their troops en masse from here,” said Ukraine’s 47th Mechanised Brigade. “Its main strike force remains.”Russia’s forces appeared to have occupied all but a small district of Niu-York on Monday, according to Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group with close ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry. The Russians had also crept closer to Pokrovsk.


Home to more than 60,000 residents, Pokrovsk is a significant logistical hub for Ukraine’s military and a linchpin for its defence of the rest of Donetsk region.Over the weekend, Serhiy Dobriak, head of Pokrovsk city military administration, urged residents — particularly families with children and elderly people — to evacuate immediately.Compulsory evacuation of families with children from Pokrovsk will start on Tuesday, according to regional authorities.Maksym Zabelya, editor of the last remaining local newspaper in neighbouring Myrnohrad, said residents in his city had also started evacuating.“People are leaving, taking their belongings. Many are even taking furniture,” Zabelya told the FT. Rental car businesses “are now the most sought-after” in the city where the population has nearly halved from 40,000 before the war.A Russian bomb destroyed the city’s tallest apartment building and a supermarket on Saturday, sending many more fleeing.“We had no choice,” said Viktor, a retired miner. Myrnohrad, he added, whose name translates as “city of peace”, was being “wiped away”.

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[Mutzo Nutzo]

What does preventing russian anti air systems in the zone Ukraine have taken allow the F16's free rein to target if anything?

@Mutzo Nutzo is the air man so will have much greater knowledge on the situation that myself, but I was under the impression the F16s would be much further back.

At the moment I’d say that F-16’s are not active in the Kursk AO. However that could change.

We’re more likely to see Ukraine MIG-29’s flying SEAD/DEAD and CAS missions. Going forward the possibility of seeing Uke SU-24’s operating in the Kursk AO loaded with modified Neptune cruise missiles for attacks on deep lying Ru military infrastructure is a distinct possibility.

The F-16's currently work closely with the integrated Uke AD network and operate in clearly defined kill boxes, fulfilling a clear CAP role. These kill boxes are in Ukranian territory and their current mission focus is to intercept and engage drones and cruise missiles. They are armed with a pair of AIM-120-D AMRAAM's so should a target of opportunity appear (such as a Russian SU-24/27) then they could take a pop at them from long range.

As more F-16's and pilots become available to Ukraine then I would expect the role of the F-16 to be expanded.