Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

More so even.

Objectively the right level of response is in effect now after being caught with their pants down. He needs victories in Donbass whilst the Ukrainian army is still in Kursk though otherwise questions will be asked.

You'd imagine that Russians seeing Russians in Kursk raging at the Kremlin and Putin for leaving them in a bad situation, coupled with the Ukriane troops treating them well, providing food etc will be a big worry for the Putin regime.

Russian losses of around 1000 a day, with teenage conscripts being sent, killed and captured in Kursk will add to the pressure/threat.

If there is another round of conscription too will create more pressure.

The video posted by Paladin PMC leader a couple of days ago calling on troops to turn on Putin might be indicative of what is brewing. In the video he also said:

"Our country is already in deep trouble. Drones fly over central Russia, even reaching Moscow and St. Petersburg. Our Black Sea Fleet is being decimated as if we were a third-rate nation… This so-called ‘president’—the ‘great’ Putin—has led us into this disaster.”

Even if it had been a clever propaganda stunt it's indicative of growing dissatisfaction.

This invasion of Russia is the biggest threat Putin has faced.

 

[Yarrgh]

You'd imagine that Russians seeing Russians in Kursk raging at the Kremlin and Putin for leaving them in a bad situation, coupled with the Ukriane troops treating them well, providing food etc will be a big worry for the Putin regime.

Russian losses of around 1000 a day, with teenage conscripts being sent, killed and captured in Kursk will add to the pressure/threat.

If there is another round of conscription too will create more pressure.

The video posted by Paladin PMC leader a couple of days ago calling on troops to turn on Putin might be indicative of what is brewing. In the video he also said:

"Our country is already in deep trouble. Drones fly over central Russia, even reaching Moscow and St. Petersburg. Our Black Sea Fleet is being decimated as if we were a third-rate nation… This so-called ‘president’—the ‘great’ Putin—has led us into this disaster.”

Even if it had been a clever propaganda stunt it's indicative of growing dissatisfaction.

This invasion of Russia is the biggest threat Putin has faced.

Time will tell about this. If Ukraine hold on or expand then the response from the Russian people could well change unfavourably for Putin. At the moment that point seems rather far away.

 

[Damo_1878]

There doesn't appear to be any evidence to suggest they're doing this in any numbers. If they plan to relinquish the land eventually, possibly so.

Are you referring to the UA or the RA? While we can surmise Ukrainian intentions, the different stages of the plan will only come obvious as it progresses.

As part of that, the individual elements will change as the situation changes - plans never survive combat. For me, it appears they've seen an opportunity.
View attachment 269739
This was posted nine hours ago, and it shows the current situation as it's believed to be. If Ukraine can push towards the NW (relative to map orientation)...

... the line from west of Rylsk becomes at serious risk, so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine doesn't try to close it. Did they plan from the start? Only they will know.


@Mutzo Nutzo is the air man so will have much greater knowledge on the situation that myself, but I was under the impression the F16s would be much further back.

From.what I've seen it's been Ukrainian Mig 29s dropping JDAM-ERs in Kursk

The F16s are not involved presently off of Ukrainian territory

 

[PhilM]

At the moment I’d say that F-16’s are not active in the Kursk AO. However that could change.

We’re more likely to see Ukraine MIG-29’s flying SEAD/DEAD and CAS missions. Going forward the possibility of seeing Uke SU-24’s operating in the Kursk AO loaded with modified Neptune cruise missiles for attacks on deep lying Ru military infrastructure is a distinct possibility.

The F-16's currently work closely with the integrated Uke AD network and operate in clearly defined kill boxes, fulfilling a clear CAP role. These kill boxes are in Ukranian territory and their current mission focus is to intercept and engage drones and cruise missiles. They are armed with a pair of AIM-120-D AMRAAM's so should a target of opportunity appear (such as a Russian SU-24/27) then they could take a pop at them from long range.

As more F-16's and pilots become available to Ukraine then I would expect the role of the F-16 to be expanded.

Aye, this is what I was alluding to: a more cautious CAP role rather than being used as a strike aircraft, that brings about greater risk due to Russian AD.

There's no point in risking such precious aircraft undertaking the attack role, when they're needed for defence of key cities and infrastructure.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

A journalist report from Kursk finding the locals blame Putin for what has happened and is happening.

My Time in the Ukrainian-Occupied Kursk Region of Russia

As Ukrainians expand control of territory taken from Russia in their surprise Kursk incursion, Kyiv Post went along with the military to get a firsthand look at the interaction with civilians.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[verreauxi]

This is a bit like a creepy window-less white van parked down by a river with "FREE CANDY" spray-painted on its side.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

This is a bit like a creepy window-less white van parked down by a river with "FREE CANDY" spray-painted on its side.

The little silly sausage has all.his bots and buddies bots working around the clock to convince the West that we are broken and our culture is now alien to us. Some, though I don't imagine it'll be anything beyond hard core loons, might take him up on the offer. They'd probably find themselves on the frontline before they knew what was happening.

 

[Tim's tourettes]

The little silly sausage has all.his bots and buddies bots working around the clock to convince the West that we are broken and our culture is now alien to us. Some, though I don't imagine it'll be anything beyond hard core loons, might take him up on the offer. They'd probably find themselves on the frontline before they knew what was happening.

Hopefully some of the ones who rioted here a few weeks back will go and find their all-white promised land over there. (Apart from the 100s of ethnic groups that make up the Country, of course!)

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[davek]

Putin told Russian media that he wants the Ukrainians out of Kursk by beginning of October.

 

[PhilM]

Putin told Russian media that he wants the Ukrainians out of Kursk by beginning of October.

He told Russian media the whole initial invasion would be over in three days...

 

[COYBL25]

Putin told Russian media that he wants the Ukrainians out of Kursk by beginning of October.

So what ?

 

[Yarrgh]

Putin told Russian media that he wants the Ukrainians out of Kursk by beginning of October.

This is grandstanding for public opinion. Russia would be best off continuing as they are and letting Ukraine come onto them in Kursk whilst they whittle away at Ukrainian resources and continue the grind in the east.

Ukraine will be portraying this as a win and that he's rattled.

Unless Putin knows something we don't about the next 6 weeks of course. Perhaps he doesn't want a big chunk of Ukrainian experienced forces currently in Kursk to move east so he's offering a challenge as bait to keep them there until October.

As ever, time will tell.

 

[Tipp blue]

Putin told Russian media that he wants the Ukrainians out of Kursk by beginning of October.

The easiest way for that to happen is for him to pull the Russian army out of Ukraine by the middle of September.