Current Affairs Ukraine

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Interesting what Ukrainians gonna do, continue to trying to improve their position in Kursk region (seems front there mostly stabilized in last few days) or try to consolidate and fortify what they took.
I have a feeling that (within reason) they'll be trying their utmost to encircle the troops on the left flank who are stuck, because it could force their line to falter.

If this happens, they could have an opportunity to really push the Russians back. That might, eventually, force the Russians to divert attention from Pokrovsk.
 
I have a feeling that (within reason) they'll be trying their utmost to encircle the troops on the left flank who are stuck, because it could force their line to falter.

If this happens, they could have an opportunity to really push the Russians back. That might, eventually, force the Russians to divert attention from Pokrovsk.
They are not really encircled (despite bridges destroyed), pontoon bridges exist and its only like 1000 soldiers there (according to news), and from what i understand its mostly wild forested area with only few tiny settlements spread out.
Outside taking territory doesn't seem much important strategically.
Wouldn't it seem smarter to try to broke forward and threaten some towns (like Lgov and maybe even nuclear plant) while they still have some momentum instead going sideways to take some forests?

Cause Russian reserves keep coming and judging by those videos of drone strikes and ambushed Ukrainian columns they are no longer simple conscripts. There is not a lot of time left before positional warfare settle in.
 
They are not really encircled (despite bridges destroyed), pontoon bridges exist and its only like 1000 soldiers there (according to news), and from what i understand its mostly wild forested area with only few tiny settlements spread out.
Outside taking territory doesn't seem much important strategically.
Wouldn't it seem smarter to try to broke forward and threaten some towns (like Lgov and maybe even nuclear plant) while they still have some momentum instead going sideways to take some forests?

Cause Russian reserves keep coming and judging by those videos of drone strikes and ambushed Ukrainian columns they are no longer simple conscripts. There is not a lot of time left before positional warfare settle in.
Hence, why I said they'll be doing their utmost to 'attempt' to encircle them, and from recent chatter there is only one pontoon bridge left. It's uncomfortable, at best.

Also, it isn't what is there, yet rather what is beyond. If they trap those troops, they can push towards Rylsk, which is an intersection of the E38 and other roads.

You then have the possibility of troops further along the line being susceptible to attack from the rear (facing the enemy two ways) and being potentially overrun.

What might that cause to happen? If you've got poorly trained and led troops, there is the possibility the line may fall back deeper into Russia to be less susceptible.

If they don't fall back, the Russian lines towards the road will have their flank to protect, and you may also see Russia divert troops to defend the position.

Ukraine are doing it for a reason...
 
Hence, why I said they'll be doing their utmost to 'attempt' to encircle them, and from recent chatter there is only one pontoon bridge left. It's uncomfortable, at best.

Also, it isn't what is there, yet rather what is beyond. If they trap those troops, they can push towards Rylsk, which is an intersection of the E38 and other roads.

You then have the possibility of troops further along the line being susceptible to attack from the rear (facing the enemy two ways) and being potentially overrun.

What might that cause to happen? If you've got poorly trained and led troops, there is the possibility the line may fall back deeper into Russia to be less susceptible.

If they don't fall back, the Russian lines towards the road will have their flank to protect, and you may also see Russia divert troops to defend the position.

Ukraine are doing it for a reason...
How come they didn't move immediately there two weeks ago when this whole thing started, considering chaos it seems it would be easy picking?
Element of surprise is long gone now, hopefully its not gonna be repeat of Belgord checkpoint attempt of week ago where Russians awaited them and repulsed them with artillery and air strikes.

Or maybe Russians themselves realize its undefendable and retreat behind the river, considering supply problem it seem it would be smart thing to do (tactically).
 
From ISW, they are reporting a redeployment of significant numbers.

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has already generated theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces, and subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will likely generate even greater pressures on Putin and the Russian military. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has prompted the Russian military to redeploy up to 11 battalions from within Kursk Oblast and four Russian force groupings elsewhere in the theater to the frontline in Kursk Oblast so far.[14] US officials reportedly told the New York Times in an article published on August 15 that Russia has committed reserves to Kursk Oblast that it otherwise would have committed to grinding offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the coming months.[15] The redeployment of Russian forces and the commitment of elements of operational reserves has allowed Russian forces to slow initially rapid Ukrainian gains in Kursk Oblast and start containing the extent of the Ukrainian incursion.[16] Containment is only the first and likely least resource-intensive phase of the Russian response in Kursk Oblast, however. Putin and the Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized, as persisting Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory would be a strategic blow to Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.[17]

https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...t-russian-and-ukrainian-operations-course-war
 
From ISW, they are reporting a redeployment of significant numbers.

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast has already generated theater-wide operational and strategic pressures on Russian forces, and subsequent phases of fighting within Russia will likely generate even greater pressures on Putin and the Russian military. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has prompted the Russian military to redeploy up to 11 battalions from within Kursk Oblast and four Russian force groupings elsewhere in the theater to the frontline in Kursk Oblast so far.[14] US officials reportedly told the New York Times in an article published on August 15 that Russia has committed reserves to Kursk Oblast that it otherwise would have committed to grinding offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the coming months.[15] The redeployment of Russian forces and the commitment of elements of operational reserves has allowed Russian forces to slow initially rapid Ukrainian gains in Kursk Oblast and start containing the extent of the Ukrainian incursion.[16] Containment is only the first and likely least resource-intensive phase of the Russian response in Kursk Oblast, however. Putin and the Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized, as persisting Ukrainian occupation of Russian territory would be a strategic blow to Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.[17]

https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...t-russian-and-ukrainian-operations-course-war
According to Ukrainian military report from yesterday that i saw posted on r/UkrainianConflict on Reddit, they redeployed some troops from more peaceful parts of front (Kharkiv and Donbass) while on Pokrovsk part of the front they increased their effort and had considerable advances through last week (thats why announcement of evacuation of civilians from the city today).

Apparently they counting on fact that Ukrainian supply priority gonna be more focused on "flashier" Kursk theater and trying to use it.
 

Brave fella.

Kremlin Nemesis Plans to Create Putin’s Nightmare in Captured Russian Territory​

Exiled opposition leader says he’s ready to pounce on Russia’s massive military fail.

Anna Nemtsova​


Updated Aug. 19, 2024 4:58AM EDT / Published Aug. 19, 2024 4:51AM EDT
exclusive

A former Russian lawmaker self-exiled in Ukraine is seeking to establish a new political power base right under the nose of Vladimir Putin in Russian territory seized by Kyiv’s forces.

Ilya Ponomarev, a 49-year-old ex-politician now on Russia’s list of terrorists and extremists, says the stunning cross-border incursion launched by Kyiv’s forces on Aug. 6 presents a new “political opportunity.”

“I’ve been telling Ukrainian authorities for two years that Putin’s power is weak, that nobody is defending the border much,” Ponomarev tells the Daily Beast. “I have been preparing for this particular moment to begin building a new platform, assemble the new power on the Russian territory—I am ready to lead and risk my life, in any case Russian drones are already targeting me.”

Ponomarev and his wife were injured earlier this month in a drone attack which damaged his home in Kyiv Oblast—he described the incident at the time as the fifth attempt on his life. He’s been a thorn in the side of the Kremlin for a decade, having been the only member of Russia’s State Duma to vote against Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.

He was later accused of embezzlement in Russia—charges which he dismissed as politically motivated—and has lived in exile in Ukraine for years. Ponomarev now wants to fight back by leading the revolt in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian broke through Russia’s defenses before continuing the campaign into the neighboring Belgorod region.

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters​

“I am ready to lead the political authorities in Kursk, if Kyiv approves of it, of course,” Ponomarev told the Daily Beast, adding that he would like to recruit residents who haven’t fled the region. “Many Russian soldiers have been waiting for it,” he said. “Many more will join the legions now.”
In 2022, Ponomarev initiated and founded the Congress of People’s Deputies which currently includes 109 Russian citizens, former lawmakers, and bureaucrats, claiming to be the “transitional parliament” in exile. In late June, Warsaw hosted Ponomarev’s shadow parliament’s session that attracted dozens of Russian exiled politicians, calling for armed resistance to Putin’s rule.
Ponomarev said the Congress would be happy to welcome more new members, but few Russian opposition parties and movements have backed his position since the incursion began.

Thomas Peter/Reuters​

“Many of our Congress deputies cannot wait to go to Kursk,” Ponomarev says. “We are open for everyone, we have a horizontal structure, but most liberals are skeptical, they are all waiting to see how the situation in Kursk is going to develop.”

As of Friday, 10 days since the incursion began, the presence of the Ukrainian military in the region of Kursk had only increased. National flags, armored vehicles, personnel, sniper positions, and even a commandant’s office have been established there, while Ukrainian fighters have published videos of dozens of Russian soldiers captured in the Kursk region.

Vladimir Aleksandrov/Anadolu via Getty Images​

Several reports on Thursday claimed over 100 Russian troops were captured inside Russia in the single biggest mass surrender since the war began.

“Some of the captured are 18-to-19-year-old conscripts, who Putin promised not to send to the front,” an activist of the Soldiers’ Mothers movement told the Daily Beast in an interview this week. “So, they moved these conscripts to the border area, where there is no connection with them—we receive many calls from devastated mothers.”

She added that although Kyiv’s strategy is still unclear to most Russians, many understand the Ukrainian military are not going to leave the occupied town of Sudzha and surrounding villages which have been abandoned by over 100,000 Russian residents.

Ukraine’s top military commander Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky claimed to control over 80 settlements having pushed more than 21 miles inside Russia.

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk via Reuters​

In Ponomarev’s view, the “absolute goal” of the incursion “would be to occupy the Kursk power plant and eventually swap it for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.” The Zaporizhzhia plant in southeastern Ukraine—the largest nuclear power station in Europe—has been occupied by Russian troops since the early days of the war in March 2022.

Some in Russia have likened Ponomarev to Vladimir Lenin, who also plotted political revolution a century ago revolution while in exile. Others are less impressed, including Lev Shlosberg, the deputy chair of the opposition Yabloko party in Russia.

“They are not politicians, they are bandits, guerrillas, direct successors of terrorist-Bolsheviks,” Shlosenberg told the Daily Beast about exiled Russian politicians like Ponomarev. “Nobody has ever harmed Russia more than Bolsheviks. They are people of violence, revolution, war, and blood.”
Another exiled lawmaker, Gennady Gudkov, sounded skeptical about Ponomarev’s plan to establish alternative power in the Kursk region. “Seriously,” Gudkov told the Daily Beast, “This is not a great idea.”

 
The Russians are now about 9KM from Pokrovsk and Ukrainian officials are saying the town will be under their control in 1-2 weeks and are evacuating civilians from there.

The Kursk incursion was surely aimed at stopping this advance by Russia, as it's a massively important place strategically speaking to hold.
 
The Russians are now about 9KM from Pokrovsk and Ukrainian officials are saying the town will be under their control in 1-2 weeks and are evacuating civilians from there.

The Kursk incursion was surely aimed at stopping this advance by Russia, as it's a massively important place strategically speaking to hold.
Though even if/when they reach the city it probably gonna be bloody battle for both sides.
Remember Bakhmut slaughterhouse, urban battles are bloody affairs
 
The Russians are now about 9KM from Pokrovsk and Ukrainian officials are saying the town will be under their control in 1-2 weeks and are evacuating civilians from there.

The Kursk incursion was surely aimed at stopping this advance by Russia, as it's a massively important place strategically speaking to hold.

Dave, I suggest you read about manoeuvre warfare. Sometimes the wider strategic objectives are not simply to hold ground. It is to gain your objectives. This can sometimes involve withdrawing from poorly defensible positions to only return later.

I'm looking myself at the wider theatre. I'm looking at what happens to Russian long range fires in various areas of the front, and particularly in the south as a result of the Kursk incursion.

Since this seems to be one of the strategic objectives of the Ukrainians and/or since the Russian army is a heavily artillery based force.



I'm also not one to say that the Ukraines have stopped all Russian supplies or in that area. What that has done is impeded Russian movement in the area

What is actually going on is more nuanced and isn't a binary black/white situation as you try and make out

In manoeuvre warfare you can be as often tactically withdrawing or manoeuvring, as much as a advancing.
 
Though even if/when they reach the city it probably gonna be bloody battle for both sides.
Remember Bakhmut slaughterhouse, urban battles are bloody affairs
Which is why diverting their better units to leave for Kursk was a mad gamble. And now they're stuck there.

They could have done with them and their hardware to defend Pokrovsk.
 
Dave, I suggest you read about manoeuvre warfare. Sometimes the wider strategic objectives are not simply to hold ground. It is to gain your objectives. This can sometimes involve withdrawing from poorly defensible positions to only return later.

I'm looking myself at the wider theatre. I'm looking at what happens to Russian long range fires in various areas of the front, and particularly in the south as a result of the Kursk incursion.

Since this seems to be one of the strategic objectives of the Ukrainians and/or since the Russian army is a heavily artillery based force.



I'm also not one to say that the Ukraines have stopped all Russian supplies or in that area. What that has done is impeded Russian movement in the area

What is actually going on is more nuanced and isn't a binary black/white situation as you try and make out

In manoeuvre warfare you can be as often tactically withdrawing or manoeuvring, as much as a advancing.

I don't think anyone really know the goal of Kursk operation (among us ordinary mortals), was it just PR move to change narrative of war and bring West attention back, was it to try to divert Russiant attention from their current onslaught from the East (i would say both of those were among objectives).

Maybe idea really was to threaten Kurchatov nuclear plant 80 km from the border (though it seems unrealistic now), in the end of the day it was gamble (that is working so far) and good use of Russian arrogance/hubris who probably thought "they wouldn't dare" to cross imaginary line on map.

From what i read entire border and area was protected mostly by like 1500-2000 conscripts mostly without any heavy gear, if that was not madness/arrogance then i don't know what is.
 
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