Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

Putin has no intention of seeking a peace deal. This is succinctly put.

 

[tsubaki]

Putin has no intention of seeking a peace deal. This is succinctly put.

There is a conspicuous lack of facts there, and one thing he never explains is why the talks actually ended - which should have been an easy thing to do.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

There is a conspicuous lack of facts there, and one thing he never explains is why the talks actually ended - which should have been an easy thing to do.

It is a succinct view of the facts and also seemingly a nightlight to windbags.

 

[davids]

This is the only online content that I'm watching now. He has friends actually fighting for Ukraine giving him live intel. But still gives an impartial overview of what is actually happening.

 

[tsubaki]

It is a succinct view of the facts and also seemingly a nightlight to windbags.

Well it isn’t; the only facts mentioned were that the talks existed and that draft documents were produced. We are never told why the talks stopped, and why they’ve not resumed.

He didn’t even deny that Johnson had made that trip and pressured Zelensky to fight on (just that anyone who knew Zelensky knew he couldn’t be pressured).

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Looks like Belbek airbase got malleted last night. At least 20 large explosions.

 

[tantavisiteler]

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

The sides are, and have been, far enough apart that a political settlement is/was unthinkable.

It's also how this ends, because NATO entry is World War III. Political conditions have to change inside one of the two countries. That could be a complete Ukraine loss, but more likely the fall of Kyiv or a loss of morale. It could be the fall of Putin, or withdrawal becoming more attractive than an imminent fall. He has already put down one poorly planned, abortive coup attempt. He could keel over dead for medical (or sinister) reasons.

The Berlin Wall came down in a night. The Soviet Union fell in a week. The collapse of Eden's government was swift, and total. Conditions have conspired to produce stalemate for some time. It doesn't follow that things will stay that way.

I think we all agree that Vlad is never backing down. This is what scared me, the lengths he would go to. IMO he would take this as far as it can go before he admitted defeat -it is not in his DNA to do so. At the same time, NATO also cannot afford to let him win. We find ourselves in a position where total war is an acceptable outcome for some.

 

[tsubaki]

I think we all agree that Vlad is never backing down. This is what scared me, the lengths he would go to. IMO he would take this as far as it can go before he admitted defeat -it is not in his DNA to do so. At the same time, NATO also cannot afford to let him win. We find ourselves in a position where total war is an acceptable outcome for some.

We (NATO) need to define what "a win" for Ukraine would look like in this case, I think.

A free Ukraine still existing under a leadership of its own choice and able to defend itself would be a win, just as it was for Finland in 1940. It might not be a Ukraine with borders as of 1991 including Crimea, but saying anything short of that is not a win would be very wrong.

With regards to Russia, I've said this throughout but I really think there should be meaningful negotiations between the parties - if for no other reason than it would demonstrate to the world what Putin is up to. At the moment he can say to the rest of the world that he has tried but "they" (varying of course between Ukraine, NATO, "the collective West" or the US) refuse to talk.

 

[varnish]

Victory for Ukraine is Russia flipping back to its inbred lands and getting the flip out of civilised Europe.

Edit: sorry mods for naughty words.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

A free Ukraine still existing under a leadership of its own choice and able to defend itself would be a win, just as it was for Finland in 1940. It might not be a Ukraine with borders as of 1991 including Crimea, but saying anything short of that is not a win would be very wrong. - initially most would have been against this but, the longer it goes on, the more appealing it sounds.

With regards to Russia, I've said this throughout but I really think there should be meaningful negotiations between the parties - if for no other reason than it would demonstrate to the world what Putin is up to. At the moment he can say to the rest of the world that he has tried but "they" (varying of course between Ukraine, NATO, "the collective West" or the US) refuse to talk - negotiating with a tyrant should be an absolute no but, needs must it seems.

We just need him dead.

 

[efcfanwirral]

I think we all agree that Vlad is never backing down. This is what scared me, the lengths he would go to. IMO he would take this as far as it can go before he admitted defeat -it is not in his DNA to do so. At the same time, NATO also cannot afford to let him win. We find ourselves in a position where total war is an acceptable outcome for some.

A free Ukraine still existing under a leadership of its own choice and able to defend itself would be a win, just as it was for Finland in 1940. It might not be a Ukraine with borders as of 1991 including Crimea, but saying anything short of that is not a win would be very wrong. - initially most would have been against this but, the longer it goes on, the more appealing it sounds.

With regards to Russia, I've said this throughout but I really think there should be meaningful negotiations between the parties - if for no other reason than it would demonstrate to the world what Putin is up to. At the moment he can say to the rest of the world that he has tried but "they" (varying of course between Ukraine, NATO, "the collective West" or the US) refuse to talk - negotiating with a tyrant should be an absolute no but, needs must it seems.

We just need him dead.

When this sort of thing is going in the papers, its clear we'll be in a war economy and be all in by the end of the year. Whether we agree with it or not.

The slow build up of propaganda recently is planting the seed. We are going to war with Russia

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Putting an economist in charge of the military might be indicative of Putin planning for a long war. Could easily be a fear driven move to remain power. I guess we will find out soon.

 

[jamieni]

When this sort of thing is going in the papers, its clear we'll be in a war economy and be all in by the end of the year. Whether we agree with it or not.

The slow build up of propaganda recently is planting the seed. We are going to war with Russia

I think a lot of these articles are clearly there to bang the drum for increased military spending but I don’t think it spells inevitable war. Clearly the thinking seems to be that we are in a similar position to the 1930s, when we did not do enough to deter the Axis Powers and so now the West (in inverted commas) needs to ensure there is effective deterrence in place to try to prevent any further adventurism in Europe by Russia. Add in to the mix an uncertain position on US protection if Trump gets elected and voila - everyone start spending on tanks!! lol

I think the real player here is going to be China. A lot depends on what they calculate is in their best interests re conflict in Europe before they pull the handbrake on Russia.

 

[Tipp blue]

We (NATO) need to define what "a win" for Ukraine would look like in this case, I think.

A free Ukraine still existing under a leadership of its own choice and able to defend itself would be a win, just as it was for Finland in 1940. It might not be a Ukraine with borders as of 1991 including Crimea, but saying anything short of that is not a win would be very wrong.

With regards to Russia, I've said this throughout but I really think there should be meaningful negotiations between the parties - if for no other reason than it would demonstrate to the world what Putin is up to. At the moment he can say to the rest of the world that he has tried but "they" (varying of course between Ukraine, NATO, "the collective West" or the US) refuse to talk.

There's 3 potential victories
1. Ukraine win and push boarders back to pre 2022.
2. Russia win and take all of Ukraine
3. The West win and Russia take enough of Ukraine that they can claim some sort of a win at home but are weakened enough that they can't attempt this on another country for a generation.
I think 3 is most likley.