Current Affairs Ukraine

[Taifi gorm]

Or an excuse for a few more years of austerity?

And war profiteering.

 

[Yarrgh]

, they will

The remnants of Wagner were sent to Belarus to "train" their army I wouldn't be surprised if there's an attack from there sooner rather than later.
China will have a big say in what Russia does after the political solution is finally sorted out.

He's there now getting his orders. Probably not to make a show of China if they go the peace conference in Switzerland.

 

[tantavisiteler]

Volodymyr Zelensky’s five-year term ends on May 20th

But he has no plans to step down or call an election during wartime

www.economist.com

 

[Yarrgh]

Volodymyr Zelensky’s five-year term ends on May 20th

But he has no plans to step down or call an election during wartime

www.economist.com

If he holds elections it drags focus from the war and risks someone coming in who will make a deal which is everything he is against. He can't win because every option is a losing one.

Once everyone knows he is going past the limit of his term as president then it's an open goal to criticise him by his opponents and enemies of Ukraine.

It is what it is.

 

[Rita_Poon]

If he holds elections it drags focus from the war and risks someone coming in who will make a deal which is everything he is against. He can't win because every option is a losing one.

Once everyone knows he is going past the limit of his term as president then it's an open goal to criticise him by his opponents and enemies of Ukraine.

It is what it is.

"Annexed Ukrainians have the right to vote to!"

 

[Yarrgh]

"Annexed Ukrainians have the right to vote to!"

They already have thisy year. What you think about that is completely up to you.

 

[davids]

Ukraine having success with the latest ordinance they've received.

 

[tsubaki]

"Annexed Ukrainians have the right to vote to!"

This is of course one of the biggest problems that Russia caused itself by seizing Crimea; stripping pro-Russian voters out of Ukrainian elections guaranteed that nationalist voices would get more votes.

Taking the Donbass would make that even worse, as would Odessa and Kharkov. The bit of Ukraine that remained would be forever anti-Russian in a very great way.

 

[Drico]

Totally agree with everything you have said.

The issue is, his terms would be wildly different to those Ukraine would accept. It will be incredibly difficult to reach any sort of agreement, they will be miles apart.

This is true, but it also explains why a lot of the drumbeating talk from the West has died down. Without western support, there won't be much of Ukraine left and a slow, gradual softening up exercise is underway. The Ukrainian government will, naturally, look to hold on to as much as they possibly can, but few in the West think Crimea or Donbas are coming back. It's going to become a question of how much of Kharkiv they can hold on to. And there's a good chance there will be leadership change on at least one side by the time this gets to the table. Indeed, it might even necessitate that for any deal to eventually be done.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

This is true, but it also explains why a lot of the drumbeating talk from the West has died down. Without western support, there won't be much of Ukraine left and a slow, gradual softening up exercise is underway. The Ukrainian government will, naturally, look to hold on to as much as they possibly can, but few in the West think Crimea or Donbas are coming back. It's going to become a question of how much of Kharkiv they can hold on to. And there's a good chance there will be leadership change on at least one side by the time this gets to the table. Indeed, it might even necessitate that for any deal to eventually be done.

I just cannot see a world where the west deals with Vlad (nor where Vlad deals with the west tbh)

 

[Drico]

I just cannot see a world where the west deals with Vlad (nor where Vlad deals with the west tbh)

I can. It'll deal with him when it thinks that's a less costly business than supporting Ukraine. Realpolitik will dictate. The Baltics, Poland, and a few others will be very reluctant to do any deal for obvious reasons, but the further west you go the calculation changes - and it's the western countries that are funding this.

I imagine the West will support Ukraine to the extent that they cannot be pushed much further back than they will be over the coming months - and simultaneously cannot move forward to retake any territory already lost. In other words, they will support Ukraine so that the war can be "frozen". Over time, both sides will accept there is no further progress to be made and efforts to preserve that stability will encourage a formal agreement. Ukraine will be told to sign up or risk losing Western funding. Russia will be told sign up because you have "won" territory that was not yours and everyone wants to return to making money. In other words, the Ukrainians will be thrown under the bus. Which was always going to happen.

But their choice will be to be thrown under the bus or thrown under the tanks. Zelenskii, if he won't agree to this, will be pushed out by "realists". If he does agree to this, he will possibly have to go anyway as many of his supporters will view this as capitulation. The remaining dissenters will soon find there is no way to survive without the West and will be silenced by more pragmatic voices.

Whatever way you look at it, it's not going to end that well for Ukraine, but the war will not be funded by the West forever so the survival of an independent Ukraine might itself be a victory of sorts. But the West will have to provide meaningful protection for that rump state. The Ukrainians have seen how worthless previous declarations were. Yet, the sense remains that any agreement will merely freeze things for another generation. Without NATO membership, it's only a matter of time before Russia chances its arm again.

 

[davids]

I can. It'll deal with him when it thinks that's a less costly business than supporting Ukraine. Realpolitik will dictate. The Baltics, Poland, and a few others will be very reluctant to do any deal for obvious reasons, but the further west you go the calculation changes - and it's the western countries that are funding this.

I imagine the West will support Ukraine to the extent that they cannot be pushed much further back than they will be over the coming months - and simultaneously cannot move forward to retake any territory already lost. In other words, they will support Ukraine so that the war can be "frozen". Over time, both sides will accept there is no further progress to be made and efforts to preserve that stability will encourage a formal agreement. Ukraine will be told to sign up or risk losing Western funding. Russia will be told sign up because you have "won" territory that was not yours and everyone wants to return to making money. In other words, the Ukrainians will be thrown under the bus. Which was always going to happen.

But their choice will be to be thrown under the bus or thrown under the tanks. Zelenskii, if he won't agree to this, will be pushed out by "realists". If he does agree to this, he will possibly have to go anyway as many of his supporters will view this as capitulation. The remaining dissenters will soon find there is no way to survive without the West and will be silenced by more pragmatic voices.

Whatever way you look at it, it's not going to end that well for Ukraine, but the war will not be funded by the West forever so the survival of an independent Ukraine might itself be a victory of sorts. But the West will have to provide meaningful protection for that rump state. The Ukrainians have seen how worthless previous declarations were. Yet, the sense remains that any agreement will merely freeze things for another generation. Without NATO membership, it's only a matter of time before Russia chances its arm again.

This has spectacularly backfired on Putin. Sweden and Finland joining NATO has stretched the border he has to potentially defend far more than it would if Ukraine had joined. The realistic political solution will probably end with Russia holding the Donbass as well as Crimea,but there will be ongoing problems in policing both. Another decade will see a new leader of Russia,let's hope he or she is more pragmatist than sociopath.

 

[davids]

Huge drone attack by Ukraine.

 

[jamieni]

This has spectacularly backfired on Putin. Sweden and Finland joining NATO has stretched the border he has to potentially defend far more than it would if Ukraine had joined. The realistic political solution will probably end with Russia holding the Donbass as well as Crimea,but there will be ongoing problems in policing both. Another decade will see a new leader of Russia,let's hope he or she is more pragmatist than sociopath.

I’m generally sceptical about analysis of various leaders’ motivations but it does seem Putin has been motivated by some ideological notion of Ukraine as an essential part of Russia. The whole idea of an invasion runs counter to their best interests in terms of the economy etc. Their system was set up for exporting energy to Europe.

Ok maybe NATO expansion was part of the worry but I don’t think many would have been head over heels about Ukraine wanting to join given the obvious tension it would create.

Bit of an own goal on that front and now having to play the madman card all the way!

 

[tantavisiteler]