Current Affairs Ukraine

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efcfanwirral said:


When this sort of thing is going in the papers, its clear we'll be in a war economy and be all in by the end of the year. Whether we agree with it or not.

The slow build up of propaganda recently is planting the seed. We are going to war with Russia
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jamieni said:
I think a lot of these articles are clearly there to bang the drum for increased military spending but I don’t think it spells inevitable war. Clearly the thinking seems to be that we are in a similar position to the 1930s, when we did not do enough to deter the Axis Powers and so now the West (in inverted commas) needs to ensure there is effective deterrence in place to try to prevent any further adventurism in Europe by Russia. Add in to the mix an uncertain position on US protection if Trump gets elected and voila - everyone start spending on tanks!! lol

I think the real player here is going to be China. A lot depends on what they calculate is in their best interests re conflict in Europe before they pull the handbrake on Russia.
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Tipp blue said:
There's 3 potential victories
1. Ukraine win and push boarders back to pre 2022.
2. Russia win and take all of Ukraine
3. The West win and Russia take enough of Ukraine that they can claim some sort of a win at home but are weakened enough that they can't attempt this on another country for a generation.
I think 3 is most likley.
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I think the West need to sit down with Z and have a long hard talk before sitting down with Vlad and trying to make a deal. At least that way he can be seen to have some sort of win and we avert WW3

This would mean Blinken, Stoltenberg, Cameron, Baerbock, representatives from former soviet states etc all licking his boots to an extent...
 
Tipp blue said:
There's 3 potential victories
1. Ukraine win and push boarders back to pre 2022.
2. Russia win and take all of Ukraine
3. The West win and Russia take enough of Ukraine that they can claim some sort of a win at home but are weakened enough that they can't attempt this on another country for a generation.
I think 3 is most likley.
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US are on record as stating that Russia didn't commit and don't have the size of army that could hold and police the whole of Ukraine. And that taking the Donbass plus an artillery buffer zone is their more realistic target.
 
Noisy noise annoys said:
I think the West need to sit down with Z and have a long hard talk before sitting down with Vlad and trying to make a deal. At least that way he can be seen to have some sort of win and we avert WW3

This would mean Blinken, Stoltenberg, Cameron, Baerbock, representatives from former soviet states etc all licking his boots to an extent...
Click to expand...
Since the start of all this, I've restated that it's all about finding a compromise that is 'palatable' for all; it may not be ideal to any parties, but it must be satisfactory.

The reality is that Ukraine is currently under the cosh, so Russia will have the advantage in terms of negotiations. Yet, I do think it's a bit of 'swings n' roundabouts'.

There was a period where Russia's bargaining power was being dwindled, so additional western (US) support may help swing the advantage back the other way.

Does it look likely that Russia will be fully pushed out of Ukraine? No. Do I think it'll reach a point where Ukraine's front line fully collapses? With support, no.

So, the ultimate outcome will be that Russia gets enough land for it to feel empowered, and for it to appease the masses back home - Putin needs a victory...

... - while, Ukraine (well, the west) have been able to some extent protect Ukraine's sovereignty, democracy etc etc., and blunt Russia's advances.

We can't afford for Russia to come out of this feeling as if it can move on somewhere else, even in five or ten years or so. That's where it'll eventually reach.

But, being realistic, we've also got to accept that while Russia is starting to encroach on Ukraine, their armed forces have overall been given a good ol' beating.

It's going to take them a lot of time, and money, to replenish what has been lost in terms of technology. The longer this goes on, the more it'll cost them.

If the west can drag this out a bit longer, they won't be too upset even if it doesn't really benefit the people of Ukraine.
 
PhilM said:
Since the start of all this, I've restated that it's all about finding a compromise that is 'palatable' for all; it may not be ideal to any parties, but it must be satisfactory.

The reality is that Ukraine is currently under the cosh, so Russia will have the advantage in terms of negotiations. Yet, I do think it's a bit of 'swings n' roundabouts'.

There was a period where Russia's bargaining power was being dwindled, so additional western (US) support may help swing the advantage back the other way.

Does it look likely that Russia will be fully pushed out of Ukraine? No. Do I think it'll reach a point where Ukraine's front line fully collapses? With support, no.

So, the ultimate outcome will be that Russia gets enough land for it to feel empowered, and for it to appease the masses back home - Putin needs a victory...

... - while, Ukraine (well, the west) have been able to some extent protect Ukraine's sovereignty, democracy etc etc., and blunt Russia's advances.

We can't afford for Russia to come out of this feeling as if it can move on somewhere else, even in five or ten years or so. That's where it'll eventually reach.

But, being realistic, we've also got to accept that while Russia is starting to encroach on Ukraine, their armed forces have overall been given a good ol' beating.

It's going to take them a lot of time, and money, to replenish what has been lost in terms of technology. The longer this goes on, the more it'll cost them.

If the west can drag this out a bit longer, they won't be too upset even if it doesn't really benefit the people of Ukraine.
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Totally agree with everything you have said.

The issue is, his terms would be wildly different to those Ukraine would accept. It will be incredibly difficult to reach any sort of agreement, they will be miles apart.
 
PhilM said:
Since the start of all this, I've restated that it's all about finding a compromise that is 'palatable' for all; it may not be ideal to any parties, but it must be satisfactory.

The reality is that Ukraine is currently under the cosh, so Russia will have the advantage in terms of negotiations. Yet, I do think it's a bit of 'swings n' roundabouts'.

There was a period where Russia's bargaining power was being dwindled, so additional western (US) support may help swing the advantage back the other way.

Does it look likely that Russia will be fully pushed out of Ukraine? No. Do I think it'll reach a point where Ukraine's front line fully collapses? With support, no.

So, the ultimate outcome will be that Russia gets enough land for it to feel empowered, and for it to appease the masses back home - Putin needs a victory...

... - while, Ukraine (well, the west) have been able to some extent protect Ukraine's sovereignty, democracy etc etc., and blunt Russia's advances.

We can't afford for Russia to come out of this feeling as if it can move on somewhere else, even in five or ten years or so. That's where it'll eventually reach.

But, being realistic, we've also got to accept that while Russia is starting to encroach on Ukraine, their armed forces have overall been given a good ol' beating.

It's going to take them a lot of time, and money, to replenish what has been lost in terms of technology. The longer this goes on, the more it'll cost them.

If the west can drag this out a bit longer, they won't be too upset even if it doesn't really benefit the people of Ukraine.
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It will however benefit China,they are getting real time testing of their electronic warfare equipment. The hit that Western economies are taking plus the weakening of Russia is playing right into their hands.
 
Key Takeaways:

  • The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended.
  • The US Helsinki Commission stated that the US should allow Ukraine to conduct strikes against military targets in Russia's border areas amid an ongoing Russian offensive operation into Kharkiv Oblast from Russia, although US officials continue to express unwillingness to support such strikes.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to publicly prioritize the further mobilization of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) while also attempting to assuage possible domestic fears about the negative effects of increased Russian defense spending.
  • Putin specifically noted that the Russian DIB must increase the quality of Russian weapons.
  • Putin is likely concerned about the economic and diplomatic implications of decreased Russian arms exports.
  • The Kremlin confirmed the appointments of the newly formed Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD and LMD) and other military district commanders on May 15.
  • Russian sources speculated that the May 13 detention of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov is only the beginning of a wider effort to root out corruption within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on May 15 that the US will provide a two billion dollar "defense enterprise fund" to Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly struck a Russian fuel depot in Rostov Oblast on the night of May 14 to 15.
  • The Kremlin continues to add European officials to Russia's wanted list as part of Russia's efforts to assert the jurisdiction of Russian federal law over sovereign NATO member states.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Siversk, and west of Donetsk City.
  • Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytyvyenko assessed on May 15 that Russian forces will have enough tanks and armored fighting vehicles for the next year and half of fighting in Ukraine at their current operational tempo.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15-2024
 
PhilM said:
Since the start of all this, I've restated that it's all about finding a compromise that is 'palatable' for all; it may not be ideal to any parties, but it must be satisfactory.

The reality is that Ukraine is currently under the cosh, so Russia will have the advantage in terms of negotiations. Yet, I do think it's a bit of 'swings n' roundabouts'.

There was a period where Russia's bargaining power was being dwindled, so additional western (US) support may help swing the advantage back the other way.

Does it look likely that Russia will be fully pushed out of Ukraine? No. Do I think it'll reach a point where Ukraine's front line fully collapses? With support, no.

So, the ultimate outcome will be that Russia gets enough land for it to feel empowered, and for it to appease the masses back home - Putin needs a victory...

... - while, Ukraine (well, the west) have been able to some extent protect Ukraine's sovereignty, democracy etc etc., and blunt Russia's advances.

We can't afford for Russia to come out of this feeling as if it can move on somewhere else, even in five or ten years or so. That's where it'll eventually reach.

But, being realistic, we've also got to accept that while Russia is starting to encroach on Ukraine, their armed forces have overall been given a good ol' beating.

It's going to take them a lot of time, and money, to replenish what has been lost in terms of technology. The longer this goes on, the more it'll cost them.

If the west can drag this out a bit longer, they won't be too upset even if it doesn't really benefit the people of Ukraine.
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Humour me.
russia annexes even more of what it wants of Ukraine, say it costs another half million lives combined, onto the negotiating table, russia keeps gains, offers to fund some of the Ukraine repairs, keeps what its taken, demands no nato for remainder of Ukraine, down come sanctions, gas pipes go back in, and then the basic unit of energy has doubled or tripled or more in price so russia can rebuild and recharge based on its natural resource valuables and the simple demand of european need.
He's beaten the 'nazi tanks' rolling through eastern europe, Ukraine is left crippled and hamstrung (and very vulnerable to political meddling going forwards) the oligarchs round the table go back to business as usual. They've seized what? Ukraine steel? % of the farm land? lands with precious metals? safer access to black sea?
It all seems very weighted to russian ends, and I wonder how emboldening that will be. Besides the wests seeming preparedness to happily cut Ukraines throat so all this nastiness can be forgotten.
It's a shame other countries under the shadow of putin which are not in nato can't or wont supply support (troops) to join the battle.

Also belarus can't be forgiven, make russia support them long term, sanction and embargo and ostracise permanently.
 
Rita_Poon said:
Humour me.
russia annexes even more of what it wants of Ukraine, say it costs another half million lives combined, onto the negotiating table, russia keeps gains, offers to fund some of the Ukraine repairs, keeps what its taken, demands no nato for remainder of Ukraine, down come sanctions, gas pipes go back in, and then the basic unit of energy has doubled or tripled or more in price so russia can rebuild and recharge based on its natural resource valuables and the simple demand of european need.
He's beaten the 'nazi tanks' rolling through eastern europe, Ukraine is left crippled and hamstrung (and very vulnerable to political meddling going forwards) the oligarchs round the table go back to business as usual. They've seized what? Ukraine steel? % of the farm land? lands with precious metals? safer access to black sea?
It all seems very weighted to russian ends, and I wonder how emboldening that will be. Besides the wests seeming preparedness to happily cut Ukraines throat so all this nastiness can be forgotten.
It's a shame other countries under the shadow of putin which are not in nato can't or wont supply support (troops) to join the battle.

Also belarus can't be forgiven, make russia support them long term, sanction and embargo and ostracise permanently.
Click to expand...
The remnants of Wagner were sent to Belarus to "train" their army I wouldn't be surprised if there's an attack from there sooner rather than later.
China will have a big say in what Russia does after the political solution is finally sorted out.
 
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