Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

Putin sees people from ethnic minority regions as disposable so it’s no surprise that they’re being thrown into the mix.

This is an important point to consider when thinking of the direction of travel for Russia under Putin and his bias and willingness to sacrifice ethic regions as cannon fodder.

Putin recognised that holding what remains of the Russian colonial empire together would be difficult - but essentailly the economic and political colonisation will be unsustainable as it is based upon domination and not good governance.

Putin warns ethnic tensions risk tearing Russia apart

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, warning ethnic tensions could tear Russia apart, said on Monday he would toughen migration rules and keep a tight rein on Russia's regions to prevent it following the Soviet Union into oblivion.

www.reuters.com

The disintegration of the Russian federation may have been brought forward by Putins invasion of Ukraine and although this will benefit the resource rich regions of the Federation that Putin's mafia are plundering, the risk will be the oligarchs selling off nukes et al so under a collapsing Federation which would need to be planned for and managed.

Could Russia disintegrate?

While the Prigozhin revolt did not lead to regime change, it is a symptom of a long decay process that could see Russia disintegrate.

www.gisreportsonline.com

The long term implications will be in China's planning have seen China able to exploit Russia under the guise of friendship - all due to the Ukraine folly. If you consider projections from the Russian Federal Migration Service that Chinese could be the dominant population in Far East of the Russian Federation in as little as 20 years you can see Putins justification for invading Donbass,/Crimea/Ukraine coming back to bite Russia in the future.

Analysis: Russia's Far East Turning Chinese

abcnews.go.com

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90135#:~:text=The%20more%20than%20tenfold%20difference,has%20plenty%20of%20leverage%20itself.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

I've got no insight into the caclulations the Chinese are making,

 

[Yarrgh]

I have heard the actual population that Zelenski has under his control is c. 15 million. So half of those are people that can potentially be thrown into the fray.

Its been surmised that they've mobilised about 2 million. Not all of those are dead of course, but we have 2 million out of about 7 million that can be mobilised, already mobilised. Essentially they are at the end of their mobilization pool.

Obviously, what happens when stuff breaks down at home (infrstructure etc) when there is no one there to fix it?

Nothing - the whole house of card collapses!

The population of unoccupied Ukraine is around 35 million. Obviously not all of this number is men and women of fighting age and a percentage of those are required to keep the infrastructure of the country functioning.

The NY Times which was the first link that comes up on googling casualties says about 1/2 million casualties (dead or injured) from both sides with the Russian losses being 300 thousand to 200 thousand Ukrainians. That's an insane amount to me and unsustainable for both.

Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say

Ukraine and Russia have lost a staggering number of troops as Kyiv’s counteroffensive drags on. A lack of rapid medical care has added to the toll.

www.nytimes.com

As for number mobilised I found only older articles but Wikipedia states 600,000 active personnel in the Ukrainian military and 900,000 reserves.

Armed Forces of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Even if you take 1.5 million total, 0.2 million equates to over 10%.

if it's 0.6 million active and 0.2 million casualties then that's 0.2/(0.2+0.6) or 25% losses from active service.

So losses to Ukraine of between 10-25% seems like a feasible guess at losses. That's unsustainable.

I'm struggling to find similar info for Russian forces but a statista.com article states in Feb, the active size of the Russian forces in Ukraine was about 4 times that of Ukrainian forces so 0.3/(4×(02+06)) or 9.4% compared to the higher value of 25%. Frankly, that's still outrageously high.

Obviously that's all back of a envelope type calculations and I am sure that given scrutiny they don't hold up well but give an indication of the relative attrition rates on both sides.

It makes the call for peace all the more understandable even it appears to be appeasement to the aggressor.

 

[Kev The Rat]

The population of unoccupied Ukraine is around 35 million. Obviously not all of this number is men and women of fighting age and a percentage of those are required to keep the infrastructure of the country functioning.

The NY Times which was the first link that comes up on googling casualties says about 1/2 million casualties (dead or injured) from both sides with the Russian losses being 300 thousand to 200 thousand Ukrainians. That's an insane amount to me and unsustainable for both.

Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say

Ukraine and Russia have lost a staggering number of troops as Kyiv’s counteroffensive drags on. A lack of rapid medical care has added to the toll.

www.nytimes.com

As for number mobilised I found only older articles but Wikipedia states 600,000 active personnel in the Ukrainian military and 900,000 reserves.

Armed Forces of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Even if you take 1.5 million total, 0.2 million equates to over 10%.

if it's 0.6 million active and 0.2 million casualties then that's 0.2/(0.2+0.6) or 25% losses from active service.

So losses to Ukraine of between 10-25% seems like a feasible guess at losses. That's unsustainable.

I'm struggling to find similar info for Russian forces but a statista.com article states in Feb, the active size of the Russian forces in Ukraine was about 4 times that of Ukrainian forces so 0.3/(4×(02+06)) or 9.4% compared to the higher value of 25%. Frankly, that's still outrageously high.

Obviously that's all back of a envelope type calculations and I am sure that given scrutiny they don't hold up well but give an indication of the relative attrition rates on both sides.

It makes the call for peace all the more understandable even it appears to be appeasement to the aggressor.

Abosolute nonsense. You think people have hung around after whats gone on? 15 million maybe on the low side, but I would be shocked if it was more than 20m

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Abosolute nonsense. You think people have hung around after whats gone on? 15 million maybe on the low side, but I would be shocked if it was more than 20m

You think there are 15 odd million Ukrainians floating about?

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Won’t believe it until it’s confirmed via Skype

 

[dublinbluenose]

I have heard the actual population that Zelenski has under his control is c. 15 million. So half of those are people that can potentially be thrown into the fray.

Its been surmised that they've mobilised about 2 million. Not all of those are dead of course, but we have 2 million out of about 7 million that can be mobilised, already mobilised. Essentially they are at the end of their mobilization pool.

Obviously, what happens when stuff breaks down at home (infrstructure etc) when there is no one there to fix it?

Nothing - the whole house of card collapses!

Russia may have to deal with loss of significant infrastructure this winter. High voltage switching gear that Russia uses is difficult to replace. The companies that make them will probably be embargoed from selling them to Russia not to mention they are built to spec and have year long lead in times.

Presumably they have some redundancy but no doubt Ukraine will target infrastructure this winter. Whatever Russia takes air defense systems away from to protect infrastructure will become a target as well.

Ukraine clearly have assets on the ground in Russia.

 

[Kev The Rat]

You think there are 15 odd million Ukrainians floating about?

in central/western europe, yes I think so.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Russia may have to deal with loss of significant infrastructure this winter. High voltage switching gear that Russia uses is difficult to replace. The companies that make them will probably be embargoed from selling them to Russia not to mention they are built to spec and have year long lead in times.

Presumably they have some redundancy but no doubt Ukraine will target infrastructure this winter. Whatever Russia takes air defense systems away from to protect infrastructure will become a target as well.

Ukraine clearly have assets on the ground in Russia.

The last paragraph is on target.

 

[Kev The Rat]

The last paragraph is on target.

They may well have certain assets on the ground but what they are accomplishing at present is as about as damaging as a small child throwing their toys at their parents when they have a tantrum.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

They may well have certain assets on the ground but what they are accomplishing at present is as about as damaging as a small child throwing their toys at their parents when they have a tantrum.

You mean pin pricks? I see.

 

[peteblue]

They may well have certain assets on the ground but what they are accomplishing at present is as about as damaging as a small child throwing their toys at their parents when they have a tantrum.

Except that these are very well aimed and growing by the day……..

 

[peteblue]

How did Russian S400 not see 40 odd plastic drones flying over Russian airspace and hitting airfields?

There is some phenomenal technological innovation going on in Ukraine. Re-purposing Neptune missiles for instance.

Necessity is the mother of invention and the Ukrainians are really good at this it seems…….

 

[Kev The Rat]

You mean pin pricks? I see.

they are designed to grab a few headlines and nothing more certainly not to bring an end to, much less win any war

 

[peteblue]

they are designed to grab a few headlines and nothing more and not to bring an end to, much less win any war

Hitting Putins palace would grab headlines. Blowing up advanced planes, airfields, munitions factories and technology units is targeted. Nothing showy just simple progression…….