Current Affairs Ukraine

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

If western analysts are to be believed, Russia has the majority of its ground forces on the various fronts with very little in the way of reserves.

Those better in the know on these things can correct me here, but I believe one of the main purposes of having reserve units behind the front line units is so that you can rotate those at the front line.

Meaning Russian troops might well be spending the entirety of their deployments on the front line with little to no respite.

No wonder then that there are increasing numbers refusing to go back, on top of everything the levels of combat fatigue must be off the scale.

I tried to make this point the other day as Putin supposedly is sending his rear-guard elite Paratrooper group into the fray. Sadly, it fell on deaf ears.

 

[dublinbluenose]

If western analysts are to be believed, Russia has the majority of its ground forces on the various fronts with very little in the way of reserves.

Those better in the know on these things can correct me here, but I believe one of the main purposes of having reserve units behind the front line units is so that you can rotate those at the front line.

Meaning Russian troops might well be spending the entirety of their deployments on the front line with little to no respite.

No wonder then that there are increasing numbers refusing to go back, on top of everything the levels of combat fatigue must be off the scale.

Russian forces are not being rotated, its one of their main (many) criticisms on their telegram channels.

Ukraine has still not commited the majority of its newly trained battalions. Most of the US/NATO tanks have not yet been sent to the front although there is some footage of them on transports in recent days.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Which is preferable Mauripol or Bakhmut if the plug is pulled tomorrow by the US and the Ukrainians have to go to the negotiating table?

I get the sense that the US is getting antsy. Progress is slow, Ukrainian losses too high and US popular support and political will to keep supporting the Ukrainians is on wain with any Republican win next year itching to pull the plug. Could Europe supply Ukraine alone in a prolonged war?

I sense the mood music 8s changing here too with recent coverage on high numbers of casualties and RF pushing Ukrainians along the northern part of the front.

Difficult decisions time potentially on the horizon.

Without cutting off supplies from Crimea and the black sea Ukraine would have two flanks to defend if they went for Mariupol. Make sense to get to firing rsnge of the black sea fleet and cut off Crimea before winter.

They're hollding the high ground west of Bakmut rather than trying for a big push there, its keeping a sizable Russian force occupied that cant be moved south.

 

[peteblue]

I tried to make this point the other day as Putin supposedly is sending his rear-guard elite Paratrooper group into the fray. Sadly, it fell on deaf ears.

Only on some deaf ears…..

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

Uh ... actually it would be. The resulting nuclear winter is a potential total extinction event for humankind.

Well, the way humanity is going, that could be a positive.

 

[peteblue]

Well, the way humanity is going, that could be a positive.

Indeed, just read some of the threads in here and the Everton forum, we’ve blown it ……

 

[Kev The Rat]

My guess is that Ukraine cannot withstand more than twenty percent of its total mobilized forces in irrevocable losses - KIA, DOW, MIA, POW, etc.

The questions are then, how many forces has Ukraine mobilized in total, and how many actual losses does it have relative to that number.

 

[Walken]

Well, the way humanity is going, that could be a positive.

I realise you aren't being serious but humanities end is the least of the consequences to nuclear winter

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[larrygobfiend]

My guess is that Ukraine cannot withstand more than twenty percent of its total mobilized forces in irrevocable losses - KIA, DOW, MIA, POW, etc.

The questions are then, how many forces has Ukraine mobilized in total, and how many actual losses does it have relative to that number.

Those primitive Ukrainians speaking that peasant language of theirs.

 

[Yarrgh]

My guess is that Ukraine cannot withstand more than twenty percent of its total mobilized forces in irrevocable losses - KIA, DOW, MIA, POW, etc.

The questions are then, how many forces has Ukraine mobilized in total, and how many actual losses does it have relative to that number.

That is a critical question. I suspect that we are getting ever closer to that number and the Ukrainians are changing tact to reducing losses but at the cost of slower gains. Then it's a question about how much momentum is needed to to allow a foreseeable victory in light of any external supporting countries changing their level of support.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

My guess is that Ukraine cannot withstand more than twenty percent of its total mobilized forces in irrevocable losses - KIA, DOW, MIA, POW, etc.

The questions are then, how many forces has Ukraine mobilized in total, and how many actual losses does it have relative to that number.

Where are you from, Kev?

 

[dublinbluenose]

How did Russian S400 not see 40 odd plastic drones flying over Russian airspace and hitting airfields?

There is some phenomenal technological innovation going on in Ukraine. Re-purposing Neptune missiles for instance.

 

[Kev The Rat]

That is a critical question. I suspect that we are getting ever closer to that number and the Ukrainians are changing tact to reducing losses but at the cost of slower gains. Then it's a question about how much momentum is needed to to allow a foreseeable victory in light of any external supporting countries changing their level of support.

I have heard the actual population that Zelenski has under his control is c. 15 million. So half of those are people that can potentially be thrown into the fray.

Its been surmised that they've mobilised about 2 million. Not all of those are dead of course, but we have 2 million out of about 7 million that can be mobilised, already mobilised. Essentially they are at the end of their mobilization pool.

Obviously, what happens when stuff breaks down at home (infrstructure etc) when there is no one there to fix it?

Nothing - the whole house of card collapses!

 

[larrygobfiend]

I have heard the actual population that Zelenski has under his control is c. 15 million. So half of those are people that can potentially be thrown into the fray.

Its been surmised that they've mobilised about 2 million. Not all of those are dead of course, but we have 2 million out of about 7 million that can be mobilised, already mobilised. Essentially they are at the end of their mobilization pool.

Obviously, what happens when stuff breaks down at home (infrstructure etc) when there is no one there to fix it?

Nothing - the whole house of card collapses!

Russia certainly has more people to throw into the meat grinder.

Putin sees people from ethnic minority regions as disposable so it’s no surprise that they’re being thrown into the mix.