Current Affairs Ukraine

[davek]

Obviously you have to take everything online with a degree of scepticism but it appears that Ukraine take a few fields and hedgerows parts of a village then lose them then retake a bit then rinse and repeat.All the while losing Leopard tanks and no doubt a lot of troops. If they don't make any significant breakthrough soon then it'll be another Summer Offensive next year,by which time Russia will have gone from three or four lines of defence to eight or nine.This was all predicted in the leaked American intelligence documents.

 

[davek]

Yeah - cracks are beginning to show in NATO, but I think those cracks are at an individual level rather than national or organisational level.

The decision to enter into peace negotiations and offering land for peace surely lies with Ukraine and personally I think they will do it but not until they can negotiate from a position of strength. If they can force Russia back to 2014 Demarcs then that would be the end for Putin and his chumskis, but in order to get into that position they have to defeat Russia in the Kherson Oblast and isolate Crimea.

 

[Tipp blue]

Obviously you have to take everything online with a degree of scepticism but it appears that Ukraine take a few fields and hedgerows parts of a village then lose them then retake a bit then rinse and repeat.All the while losing Leopard tanks and no doubt a lot of troops. If they don't make any significant breakthrough soon then it'll be another Summer Offensive next year,by which time Russia will have gone from three or four lines of defence to eight or nine.This was all predicted in the leaked American intelligence documents.

Won't all these lines of defence that Russia has created make it virtually impossible for Russia to go on the offensive again.. laying millions of mines indiscriminately over battle fields ensures they can't return to the same terrain... this will end in stalemate probably with not much difference from where front lines are now.. there will have to be land given to Russia while the rest of Ukraine either joins NATO or gets security guarantees from NATO countries.

 

[davek]

Won't all these lines of defence that Russia has created make it virtually impossible for Russia to go on the offensive again.. laying millions of mines indiscriminately over battle fields ensures they can't return to the same terrain... this will end in stalemate probably with not much difference from where front lines are now.. there will have to be land given to Russia while the rest of Ukraine either joins NATO or gets security guarantees from NATO countries.

I think they'll know where they put them, tbf.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Aberblue]

I think they'll know where they put them, tbf.

You think so?

 

[Kev The Rat]

The thing that's most disappointing is the equation of peace with doing the Kremlin's bidding.

The carnage there has to end. It's better to have a functioning state with billions of western cash pouring in setting them on the path to becoming a European nation that can take its place amongst those east European nations that have largely sorted out their own corruption and cronyism than it is sticking it out for years and leaving the country open to further degrading of civil life at the hands of Russia.

If they make a breakthrough and see Russian forces off their land or see their counter attack toppling Putin back home then fair enough. That could end matters swiftly, so they need to be given the chance to do so. But that outcome looks remote, tbf. And the death toll must be horrendous for the Ukrainians. No wonder they're keeping a lid on the figure and no western government or media will break their silence on it. It'll be a horrific toll for a nation of 44M to endure.

Sorry Dave, there can be no functioning state permitted there - particularly one propped up by western interests

That ship sailed a long time ago as far as Russia is concerned

 

[peteblue]

Yes the Russians have learnt a lot albeit at the expense of effectiveness. By moving their logistics centres further from the frontlines they’ve made it harder for themselves to resupply their troops, also they have to move fuel/ammo/supplies a long way now via roads in slow moving convoys, thereby making it a turkey shoot for ukes with drone spotters and long range arty. So you could argue that the Ukes forced this on the Russians.

Those fixed defensive lines are formidable in so much as they have very deep minefields defended by well dug-in strongpoints. The Ukes need to eliminate the overwatch strongpoints and tgen that would enable their sappers to clear the minefields - however that’s proving difficult and it really is slowing them down.

I would say it’s a massive defensive line and it can’t be strong at all points / if the Ukes breakthrough in one place they really need to exploit the breach and pour forward with their heavy armour reserve. Starting to see this happen around Robotnye but not sure if it’s too late in the season for them to reach the Azov coast and split the Russian army in two.

War of attrition is an apt term for what’s happening now - it’s become a war of logistics - whoever masters that will prevail.

All wars are wars of logistics……

 

[peteblue]

I think they'll know where they put them, tbf.

They will know where minefields are, they won’t know where the mines are…..

 

[davek]

They will know where minefields are, they won’t know where the mines are…..

I dont think they throw them around like grass seed like. They'd know where a line through them was. People on here will correct me on that if they want...

 

[Tipp blue]

I think they'll know where they put them, tbf.

There's already some reports of Russian casualties due to their own mines.. mines can be launched from air, ships and via rockets there is a massive amount of randomly placed mines over the whole battle field.. especially these.. random placing and whats worse it looks like a toy waiting for a child to find it..

PFM-1 mine - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[davek]

Sorry Dave, there can be no functioning state permitted there - particularly one propped up by western interests

That ship sailed a long time ago as far as Russia is concerned

If Russia have their buffer zone then that acts as a fire break on NATO advancement. I'd imagine they'd ideally want to turn back the clock and get Kyiv under their sway again and out of the Western sphere of influence but that's not going to happen. Ukraine will become an EU member state (once they sort their gangsterism and corruption out) and possibly a NATO member. Realism on territory lost in the south and east is going to have to be swallowed by Ukraine first though. Zelensky may have to be removed from power before that happens I'd imagine. He'd be hung drawn and quartered for agreeing to that.

 

[Kev The Rat]

If Russia have their buffer zone then that acts as a fire break on NATO advancement. I'd imagine they'd ideally want to turn back the clock and get Kyiv under their sway again and out of the Western sphere of influence but that's not going to happen. Ukraine will become an EU member state (once they sort their gangsterism and corruption out) and possibly a NATO member. Realism on territory lost in the south and east is going to have to be swallowed by Ukraine first though. Zelensky may have to be removed from power before that happens I'd imagine. He'd be hung drawn and quartered for agreeing to that.

What you actually have in Ukraine now is a statelet filled with rabid nationalists who will never ‘see reason’ with regards the newly integrated regions and moreover anything Russian in particular.

It’s taken 10 years for Russia and Putin to finally come to terms with and to recognize this

 

[davek]

There's already some reports of Russian casualties due to their own mines.. mines can be launched from air, ships and via rockets there is a massive amount of randomly placed mines over the whole battle field..

I'm sure it happens that on the odd occasion infantry men will be stumbling across their own mines and setting them off. But surley there'd be a system that the Russians have adhered to leaving corridors open to them across a thousand mile frontline.

 

[peteblue]

Obviously you have to take everything online with a degree of scepticism but it appears that Ukraine take a few fields and hedgerows parts of a village then lose them then retake a bit then rinse and repeat.All the while losing Leopard tanks and no doubt a lot of troops. If they don't make any significant breakthrough soon then it'll be another Summer Offensive next year,by which time Russia will have gone from three or four lines of defence to eight or nine.This was all predicted in the leaked American intelligence documents.

Probably best if they just gave up and went home really. Personally I cannot see Ukraine giving up, I cannot see the people or their forces giving up, this will continue until the end and Russian troops are removed from Ukraine. Of course Putin apologists and Russian supporters will say otherwise but somehow I can’t see it. The Ukrainians, unlike some in France and Germany are made of sterner stuff. The likes of Poland understand what happens if you give in……..