Current Affairs Ukraine

[Rita_Poon]

What Putin Fears Most | Journal of Democracy

Forget his excuses. Russia’s autocrat doesn’t worry about NATO. What terrifies him is the prospect of a flourishing Ukrainian democracy.

www.journalofdemocracy.org

Considering that for a moment, I don't think they could cut Berlin and in turn Germany in half like in the 40's. Then I reconsider and think of the situation between north and south Korea and the defections and famine and sabre rattling. The frontier between east and west has to be decided somewhere, the former Ukraine border or some arbitrary new line in the sand - it'll be no mans land, and guard towers, and the fun and sunshine and wealth and excess hopefully in the Ukrainian west and then the grey tawdry oppression of soviet sycophantism to the east. I reckon russia is to big and to wealthy to be financially bankrupt by a new cold war. May end up with the effective armistice that loomed between 1918 and 1939.

 

[davek]

The F-16’s will probably deployed initially in a wild-weasel (SEAD) role. Make the Ru AD systems go active and then mallet then with HARM’s.

They’re not going to go up against Ru SU-30/35’s in straight dogfights as they’d get wiped out.

Another possible role for them is anti-shipping as each F-16 can carry 2 Harpoon anti-ship missiles. This would be a massive concern for the Ru Black Sea fleet and effectively keep it bottled up in port.

The entire area is one huge EW battleground. It’s certainly not safe for either Ru or Uke air forces to be deployed effectively in an air superiority role.

Lessons to be learned by all major Western powers as the rules of warfare are now effectively being re-written.

Would you agree with western analysts that the Russians have learned a lot from that first 12 months of war. From what I can make out they keep command headquarters and ammunition dumps out of artillery range now - something that the Ukrainians exploited and made headway against the Russians on late last autumn.

I'm no expert at all, but those Russian defence lines look impregnable and way beyond the Ukraininas to punch through.

This is attrition warfare now and surely that just shifts the needle toward diplomacy not military escalation.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Would you agree with western analysts that the Russians have learned a lot from that first 12 months of war. From what I can make out they keep command headquarters and ammunition dumps out of artillery range now - something that the Ukrainians exploited and made headway against the Russians on late last autumn.

I'm no expert at all, but those Russian defence lines look impregnable and way beyond the Ukraininas to punch through.

This is attrition warfare now and surely that just shifts the needle toward diplomacy not military escalation.

Yes the Russians have learnt a lot albeit at the expense of effectiveness. By moving their logistics centres further from the frontlines they’ve made it harder for themselves to resupply their troops, also they have to move fuel/ammo/supplies a long way now via roads in slow moving convoys, thereby making it a turkey shoot for ukes with drone spotters and long range arty. So you could argue that the Ukes forced this on the Russians.

Those fixed defensive lines are formidable in so much as they have very deep minefields defended by well dug-in strongpoints. The Ukes need to eliminate the overwatch strongpoints and tgen that would enable their sappers to clear the minefields - however that’s proving difficult and it really is slowing them down.

I would say it’s a massive defensive line and it can’t be strong at all points / if the Ukes breakthrough in one place they really need to exploit the breach and pour forward with their heavy armour reserve. Starting to see this happen around Robotnye but not sure if it’s too late in the season for them to reach the Azov coast and split the Russian army in two.

War of attrition is an apt term for what’s happening now - it’s become a war of logistics - whoever masters that will prevail.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[davek]

Yes the Russians have learnt a lot albeit at the expense of effectiveness. By moving their logistics centres further from the frontlines they’ve made it harder for themselves to resupply their troops, also they have to move fuel/ammo/supplies a long way now via roads in slow moving convoys, thereby making it a turkey shoot for ukes with drone spotters and long range arty. So you could argue that the Ukes forced this on the Russians.

Those fixed defensive lines are formidable in so much as they have very deep minefields defended by well dug-in strongpoints. The Ukes need to eliminate the overwatch strongpoints and tgen that would enable their sappers to clear the minefields - however that’s proving difficult and it really is slowing them down.

I would say it’s a massive defensive line and it can’t be strong at all points / if the Ukes breakthrough in one place they really need to exploit the breach and pour forward with their heavy armour reserve. Starting to see this happen around Robotnye but not sure if it’s too late in the season for them to reach the Azov coast and split the Russian army in two.

War of attrition is an apt term for what’s happening now - it’s become a war of logistics - whoever masters that will prevail.

There's no meaningful gains to be had there though, it's more like a 1st World War meat grinder with terrible losses - especially for the Ukrainians. Although there's no official and precious little unofficial estimates of Ukrainian losses, a recent Wall Street Journal report stated there's been up to 50,000 amputees on the Ukrainian side - which is way more than British amputees in the whole of the 1st World War. Goodness knows how many have been killed.

There seems to be some belief that morale on the Russian side will crumble, but there's a lot of weariness on the Ukrainian side too. Zelensky fired all the heads of Ukrainians military recruitment centres who have been taking bribes to help potential conscripts dodge enlistment.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

There's no meaningful gains to be had there though, it's more like a 1st World War meat grinder with terrible losses - especially for the Ukrainians. Although there's no official and precious little unofficial estimates of Ukrainian losses, a recent Wall Street Journal report stated there's been up to 50,000 amputees on the Ukrainian side - which is way more than British amputees in the whole of the 1st World War. Goodness knows how many have been killed.

There seems to be some belief that morale on the Russian side will crumble, but there's a lot of weariness on the Ukrainian side too. Zelensky fired all the heads of Ukrainians military recruitment centres who have been taking bribes to help potential conscripts dodge enlistment.

If and it’s a big if Ukraine can reach the Azov sea coast by the end of the year then they have a great chance of forcing Russia to agree to a negotiated peace deal or risk having their forces in the Kherson oblast wiped out.

This imo is Zelensky’s main aim. Split the Russians in two, isolate Crimea and bring the Russians to the negotiating table.

Your’e dead right - it’s exactly like WWI out there today - and it us because there’s no air superiority for either side and the Russ are well dug in.

High intensity armoured manouvre warfare like NATO practices for ain’t happening anytime soon and it’s forcing NATO planners to completely restructure their future war planning tactics.

IMO unless Ukraine breach the defences and make it to the coast I can’t see an end to this conflict, it will become a frozen war similar to the Donbass after 2014. Lower intensity warfare played out in a WWI landscape of trenches, barbed wire and minefields.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Tokmak is the key to this war

 

[PhilM]

If and it’s a big if Ukraine can reach the Azov sea coast by the end of the year then they have a great chance of forcing Russia to agree to a negotiated peace deal or risk having their forces in the Kherson oblast wiped out.

This imo is Zelensky’s main aim. Split the Russians in two, isolate Crimea and bring the Russians to the negotiating table.

Your’e dead right - it’s exactly like WWI out there today - and it us because there’s no air superiority for either side and the Russ are well dug in.

High intensity armoured manouvre warfare like NATO practices for ain’t happening anytime soon and it’s forcing NATO planners to completely restructure their future war planning tactics.

IMO unless Ukraine breach the defences and make it to the coast I can’t see an end to this conflict, it will become a frozen war similar to the Donbass after 2014. Lower intensity warfare played out in a WWI landscape of trenches, barbed wire and minefields.

This is a hugely important point. For all the training and expertise we and other NATO nations have provided, we haven't planned for such tactics in decades.

We've supplied western armour, but until these deep minefields and entrenched fortifications are breeched they can't be utilised as we'd hope or expect.

If they can get through though, these could help turn the tide. Last projection I saw was that Russia has lost over 120,000 men, with 2/3x that wounded.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

This is a hugely important point. For all the training and expertise we and other NATO nations have provided, we haven't planned for such tactics in decades.

We've supplied western armour, but until these deep minefields and entrenched fortifications are breeched they can't be utilised as we'd hope or expect.

If they can get through though, these could help turn the tide. Last projection I saw was that Russia has lost over 120,000 men, with 2/3x that wounded.

Yeah - saw those figures as well. Horrendous loss of life

 

[davek]

If and it’s a big if Ukraine can reach the Azov sea coast by the end of the year then they have a great chance of forcing Russia to agree to a negotiated peace deal or risk having their forces in the Kherson oblast wiped out.
This imo is Zelensky’s main aim. Split the Russians in two, isolate Crimea and bring the Russians to the negotiating table.
Your’e dead right - it’s exactly like WWI out there today - and it us because there’s no air superiority for either side and the Russ are well dug in.
High intensity armoured manouvre warfare like NATO practices for ain’t happening anytime soon and it’s forcing NATO planners to completely restructure their future war planning tactics.

IMO unless Ukraine breach the defences and make it to the coast I can’t see an end to this conflict, it will become a frozen war similar to the Donbass after 2014. Lower intensity warfare played out in a WWI landscape of trenches, barbed wire and minefields.

I think Stian Jenssen, director of the private office of Stoltenberg, let the cat out of the bag a few days ago, tbh: hand over territory for NATO membership or some such deal. Either that'll happen or as you say an ongoing war across a large front line rather than in just the Donbass this time around with no real possibility of a breach of lines in either direction. Russia have their buffer and Ukraine retain their ambitions. But that wont rule out missile attacks on Kiev and other cities and so the economic rebuilding that Ukraine desperately needs wont be rolled out.

 

[davids]

This Is How Long It Would Really Take Ukraine's Pilots To Convert To F-16s

Just learning to fly an F-16 is a small aspect of what it would take for a Ukrainian fighter pilot to be combat ready in the type.

www.thedrive.com

"Going into combat against a Su-35, even a Su-27 in contested airspace — now you’re talking about years of experience. You can’t do that with a brand-new guy who has seen everything once! You can have all the capabilities of the jet, but if the pilot doesn’t know how to use it correctly, then that’s useless. So for a pilot coming from a MiG-29, having to learn a brand-new PVI [pilot-vehicle interface] where everything looks different, use weapons that they’ve only ever read about, to give them three-months training then toss them into combat — that’s a tall order!"
Sad to say it just looks like Ukraine are being sold 1978 tech that will be of little use to them.

 

[davids]

Would you agree with western analysts that the Russians have learned a lot from that first 12 months of war. From what I can make out they keep command headquarters and ammunition dumps out of artillery range now - something that the Ukrainians exploited and made headway against the Russians on late last autumn.

I'm no expert at all, but those Russian defence lines look impregnable and way beyond the Ukraininas to punch through.

This is attrition warfare now and surely that just shifts the needle toward diplomacy not military escalation.

You would hope so but unfortunately there are too many happy to support the ongoing slaughter from the safety of their computer screens.

 

[davek]

You would hope so but unfortunately there are too many happy to support the ongoing slaughter from the safety of their computer screens.

The thing that's most disappointing is the equation of peace with doing the Kremlin's bidding.

The carnage there has to end. It's better to have a functioning state with billions of western cash pouring in setting them on the path to becoming a European nation that can take its place amongst those east European nations that have largely sorted out their own corruption and cronyism than it is sticking it out for years and leaving the country open to further degrading of civil life at the hands of Russia.

If they make a breakthrough and see Russian forces off their land or see their counter attack toppling Putin back home then fair enough. That could end matters swiftly, so they need to be given the chance to do so. But that outcome looks remote, tbf. And the death toll must be horrendous for the Ukrainians. No wonder they're keeping a lid on the figure and no western government or media will break their silence on it. It'll be a horrific toll for a nation of 44M to endure.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I think Stian Jenssen, director of the private office of Stoltenberg, let the cat out of the bag a few days ago, tbh: hand over territory for NATO membership or some such deal. Either that'll happen or as you say an ongoing war across a large front line rather than in just the Donbass this time around with no real possibility of a breach of lines in either direction. Russia have their buffer and Ukraine retain their ambitions. But that wont rule out missile attacks on Kiev and other cities and so the economic rebuilding that Ukraine desperately needs wont be rolled out.

Yeah - cracks are beginning to show in NATO, but I think those cracks are at an individual level rather than national or organisational level.

The decision to enter into peace negotiations and offering land for peace surely lies with Ukraine and personally I think they will do it but not until they can negotiate from a position of strength. If they can force Russia back to 2014 Demarcs then that would be the end for Putin and his chumskis, but in order to get into that position they have to defeat Russia in the Kherson Oblast and isolate Crimea.

 

[davids]

The thing that's most disappointing is the equation of peace with doing the Kremlin's bidding.

The carnage there has to end. It's better to have a functioning state with billions of western cash pouring in setting them on the path to becoming a European nation that can take its place amongst those east European nations that have largely sorted out their own corruption and cronyism than it is sticking it out for years and leaving the country open to further degrading of civil life at the hands of Russia.

If they make a breakthrough and see Russian forces off their land or see their counter attack toppling Putin back home then fair enough. That could end matters swiftly, so they need to be given the chance to do so. But that outcome looks remote, tbf. And the death toll must be horrendous for the Ukrainians. No wonder they're keeping a lid on the figure and no western government or media will break their silence on it. It'll be a horrific toll for a nation of 44M to endure.

Obviously you have to take everything online with a degree of scepticism but it appears that Ukraine take a few fields and hedgerows parts of a village then lose them then retake a bit then rinse and repeat.All the while losing Leopard tanks and no doubt a lot of troops. If they don't make any significant breakthrough soon then it'll be another Summer Offensive next year,by which time Russia will have gone from three or four lines of defence to eight or nine.This was all predicted in the leaked American intelligence documents.