Current Affairs Ukraine

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And yet depending on which bit of guesswork you read the Wagner have flown the coop and are nearly at the gates of Moscow
Per CNN and the BBC, he has forces all the way up to Lipetsk already. In what quantity, we don't know. Prigozhin himself is parked in Rostov, as far as we know.

The just-announced travel restrictions in Kaluga bordering Bryansk and Smolensk are interesting. That would be consistent with dumping a bunch of bridges into the Oba, as a delaying strategy. I don't think Wagner has assets over there. It could also be that's the direction from which Putin is planning to scramble some assets. It would be consistent with losing Belarus to save Moscow, but I don't know just how much he had in that direction.
 
Per CNN and the BBC, he has forces all the way up to Lipetsk already. In what quantity, we don't know. Prigozhin himself is parked in Rostov, as far as we know.

The just-announced travel restrictions in Kaluga bordering Bryansk and Smolensk are interesting. That would be consistent with dumping a bunch of bridges into the Oba, as a delaying strategy. I don't think Wagner has assets over there. It could also be that's the direction from which Putin is planning to scramble some assets. It would be consistent with losing Belarus to save Moscow, but I don't know just how much he had in that direction.
Just how many troops are Wagner supposed to have? Big country Russia. As it stands I'm sticking with last year's wisdom that Putin has a terminal illness and will drop off his perch any minute now.
 
Per CNN and the BBC, he has forces all the way up to Lipetsk already. In what quantity, we don't know. Prigozhin himself is parked in Rostov, as far as we know.

The just-announced travel restrictions in Kaluga bordering Bryansk and Smolensk are interesting. That would be consistent with dumping a bunch of bridges into the Oba, as a delaying strategy. I don't think Wagner has assets over there. It could also be that's the direction from which Putin is planning to scramble some assets. It would be consistent with losing Belarus to save Moscow, but I don't know just how much he had in that direction.
Out of interest, and to save me scrolling through hundreds of pages to see if you have already answered it, do you have professional experience in military strategy, or just a very keen interest?
 
Just how many troops are Wagner supposed to have? Big country Russia. As it stands I'm sticking with last year's wisdom that Putin has a terminal illness and will drop off his perch any minute now.
Twenty-five thousand under arms is the claimed number. Looking at the photos of what Putin is setting up around Moscow and where, he is showing all of two Risk tokens. Prigozhin has to have kept some of it out of the fight, to hold Rostov and anything else he takes moving north. It would be plenty, to knock over what Putin is showing.

Out of interest, and to save me scrolling through hundreds of pages to see if you have already answered it, do you have professional experience in military strategy, or just a very keen interest?
My experience is in the conflict theory side of international relations, so I had to pick up a fair amount of that along the way to function. Hard to answer questions if you don't understand the game you discuss. Even harder to make predictions, if you just understand the political process side of it.
 
The next day or so is going to be interesting. If Wagner are headed to Moscow we might see Prigozhin taking the lead in a coup if he isn't killed. It'd be nice for Vlad to feel what a coup is like as he has inflicted the same through Wagner on the likes of Mali and Burkina Faso. Belarus is going to get interesting too - and Georgia will be watching with interest. If Putin's regime falls lets just hope that the nukes are locked away securely
 
Reading some analys on one news site, they suggest that Prigozhin rebellion was supposed to coincide with Ukrainian advances during their counter-offensive and then Prigozhin would jump in against disgraced Generals and present himself as a savior.

Problem is that those massive Ukrainian advances didn't happen and front holds (so far), but he still decided to go ahead because he doesn't have another option, Shoigu already acted against him and only "going out of the window" fate awaits him.
 
Reading some analys on one news site, they suggest that Prigozhin rebellion was supposed to coincide with Ukrainian advances during their counter-offensive and then Prigozhin would jump in against disgraced Generals and present himself as a savior.

Problem is that those massive Ukrainian advances didn't happen and front holds (so far), but he still decided to go ahead because he doesn't have another option, Shoigu already acted against him and only "going out of the window" fate awaits him.

You a comrade with @Johnnytotal
 
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