I have spent enough time around other experts to know that if you look hard enough, you will find someone with some degree of credibility taking almost any position you care to name when it comes to prognostication. The military assessments I have seen are micro-level. They may be right.
I assess it at a macro level. The way I see it, so long as NATO keeps shipping enough toys to the Ukrainians, they win in the end. The interesting question, to me, is whether the political will exists in the West to keep up the shipments given the cost. I don't know the answer to that question any more than your experts do, but everything I know tells me that answer will prove the decisive factor.
If Prigozhin knocks over Moscow, he can pay their wages. He doesn't have many endgames, from here. He can win fast. He can bargain something out with Putin, which will be difficult given Putin's stance but feasible so long as shots aren't fired in quantity. He can lose or have his men turn on him, and be executed for treason. That's about it.
