Current Affairs Ukraine

[peteblue]

What time does the next Russian dictator arrive…..

 

[Yarrgh]

If that were to happen, you'd suspect they'd see the only possible alternative to surrender being going fully in - all or nothing - to maintain their survival.

A hefty chunk of Wagner are criminals. If they surrender, they're back in prison at best and buried in a big hole somewhere to be forgotten about. If Prigozhin is making a play, then he's got a fully committed force.

Let's hope the war ends sooner because of this and civilians in the area aren't affected.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Wonder what is going to happen with Russian forces in Africa and the Middle East. Wagner forms a very large bulk of that. Has Russia overnight lost all its power in Africa?

 

[Taifi gorm]

To a greater or lesser extent Russia has been a failed state since about 1995

Analytically most states are

 

[Martin Alvito]

If that were to happen, you'd suspect they'd see the only possible alternative to surrender being going fully in - all or nothing - to maintain their survival.

100%. This could get real ugly. We now have two men in way too deep in the pot to lay their poker hands down easily.

Or they've simply been bought off by the opposition. The recent African delegations to the region could of moved the final pieces on the board.

Never worth the risk, for what those regimes can offer in return.

 

[Martin Alvito]

A good thread.

That at least explains why he moved on Rostov. He knew which piece (Gerasimov) had to come off the board right now. Gerasimov seems to be what they have that passes for Grant. Not super-bright, but he fights.

 

[Yarrgh]

Wonder what is going to happen with Russian forces in Africa and the Middle East. Wagner forms a very large bulk of that. Has Russia overnight lost all its power in Africa?

They'll hold tight, carry on doing what they're doing and take their lead from whoever is in charge when the dust settles. Prigozhin or Putin- there's no regime change there.

 

[Tipp blue]

Wouldn't now be a great time for some Ukrainian allies to announce a no fly zone over Ukraine..

 

[Kurt.]

Bring it on Vlad if you think yer hard enough !!

 

[PhilM]

That at least explains why he moved on Rostov. He knew which piece (Gerasimov) had to come off the board right now. Gerasimov seems to be what they have that passes for Grant. Not super-bright, but he fights.

Aye, they'll hopefully know where to challenge and where to pass if they are actually wanting to march towards the capital. If they get close, it could be messy.

Even if there are Russian units that are 'on paper' stationed along the way, it's not hard to imagine that some of the paramilitary units may switch or run.

And the operational status of the regular army (or reserve) units is probably questionable, at best. Will they have men, weapons and capable commanders?

Unlikely, when you consider how inept the regular army in Ukraine has been, and how much they've had to plunder their reserves to get a fighting force together.

A lone sentry with no magazine for his weapon and a broom stick handle, probably isn't too unrealistic for some of the so called 'bases'.

 

[tsubaki]

Wouldn't now be a great time for some Ukrainian allies to announce a no fly zone over Ukraine..

it would be a terrible time to do that

 

[larrygobfiend]

This might empower regular Russian’s to rise up. Hope this is the beginning of the end.

 

[Taifi gorm]

Lukashenko apparently legging it from Belarus.

 

[Tipp blue]

it would be a terrible time to do that

I guess so.. while the Russian decision makers are distracted with issues at home.

 

[PhilM]

Lukashenko apparently legging it from Belarus.

I saw that - reports his family jet took off, flew through Russia and now heading westward. There'll be a few cronies fleeing in the next few hours.