Current Affairs Ukraine

[Yarrgh]

Well I didn't envisage this. I thought Prigozhin would have been given the literal bullet long before this.

 

[Yarrgh]

So it’s Wagner and the remnants of the Russian army vs The FSB and national guard.

Where do Kadyrov and his bunch of goat botherers fit into this confused picture?

Sitting on the sidelines waiting to join the winners. Same as usual.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Wagner hasnt invaded Russia its merely a "special operation".

He surely must be banking on a coup and the military to side with him.

So let me see if I have everything straight on what's going on, here.

- The fight against Ukraine is going really, really well for Russia. So well, in fact, that they can spare the men and materiel to fight amongst themselves.
- The person prosecuting much of the fight against Ukraine is a tactical genius. He understands that they way you execute a successful coup is initiate armed rebellion hundreds of miles away from the capital, in a spot surrounded by the enemy on all sides.

I agree with your thesis, but this is not the way to play the Game of Thrones, where you win or you die. The absolute last outcome I expected here was Russia becoming a failed state. I suppose that was a mistake on my part, seeing how the only coup Prigozhin remembers was executed by some right nitwits.

 

[Moomin]

Wait a minute, this is all not true. The MSM are telling us lies according to the esteemed poster @Johnnytotal

What is the truth that we should be believe @Johnnytotal ?

Or should we look forward to Orc on Orc fighting?

 

[Lobster Johnson]

So let me see if I have everything straight on what's going on, here.

- The fight against Ukraine is going really, really well for Russia. So well, in fact, that they can spare the men and materiel to fight amongst themselves.
- The person prosecuting much of the fight against Ukraine is a tactical genius. He understands that they way you execute a successful coup is initiate armed rebellion hundreds of miles away from the capital, in a spot surrounded by the enemy on all sides.

I agree with your thesis, but this is not the way to play the Game of Thrones, where you win or you die. The absolute last outcome I expected here was Russia becoming a failed state. I suppose that was a mistake on my part, seeing how the only coup Prigozhin remembers was executed by some right nitwits.

To a greater or lesser extent Russia has been a failed state since about 1995

 

[Lobster Johnson]

The Ukranian government must be absolutely laughing their arses off at this.

 

[Paris]

In lands afar, where shadows creep,
There dwells a man, his power steeped.
A figure bold, yet filled with dread,
As pigeons whisper words unsaid.

Oh, Putin, Putin, what a sight to behold,
A mighty leader, or so we were told.
But lo, a tremor in your iron-clad frame,
As the Wagner group rides on with flame.

The pigeons coo, they tell their tales,
Of fearless warriors, like mighty gales.
You cower, Putin, in your golden tower,
As they approach, with unrivaled power.

With mischief in their beady eyes,
The Wagner group, they harmonize.
A symphony of chaos, they compose,
And fear upon your heart imposes.

Oh, how they laugh, those feathery jesters,
As you hide, surrounded by your protectors.
The world looks on, with knowing eyes,
As you tremble beneath darkened skies.

No longer the mighty bear you claim,
But a puppet, trapped in your own game.
The pigeons chuckle, their feathers ruffle,
Watching you stumble, your power muffled.

So, Putin, hear the laughter loud and clear,
As the Wagner group draws ever near.
Your reign, once feared, now tarnished and cracked,
By pigeons and warriors, who never lacked.

 

[Martin Alvito]

To a greater or lesser extent Russia has been a failed state since about 1995

One way to look at it, though the situation there never met the technical definition. The state most certainly had the monopoly on the use of force within its borders, which is at the root of the diagnostic criteria. It also had the ability to maintain its borders (until now).

Now, if you want to stake out the position that 'failed state' is a bad concept, you can certainly back up the position that Russia was creaky in many ways. There are plenty of academics out there who have been pushing back on the concept for decades. It's a minority view, but the arguments have some merit.

 

[Tipp blue]

So it’s Wagner and the remnants of the Russian army vs The FSB and national guard.

Where do Kadyrov and his bunch of goat botherers fit into this confused picture?

From some reports the National guard are not resisting and allowing them to pass checkpoints.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

In lands afar, where shadows creep,
There dwells a man, his power steeped.
A figure bold, yet filled with dread,
As pigeons whisper words unsaid.

Oh, Putin, Putin, what a sight to behold,
A mighty leader, or so we were told.
But lo, a tremor in your iron-clad frame,
As the Wagner group rides on with flame.

The pigeons coo, they tell their tales,
Of fearless warriors, like mighty gales.
You cower, Putin, in your golden tower,
As they approach, with unrivaled power.

With mischief in their beady eyes,
The Wagner group, they harmonize.
A symphony of chaos, they compose,
And fear upon your heart imposes.

Oh, how they laugh, those feathery jesters,
As you hide, surrounded by your protectors.
The world looks on, with knowing eyes,
As you tremble beneath darkened skies.

No longer the mighty bear you claim,
But a puppet, trapped in your own game.
The pigeons chuckle, their feathers ruffle,
Watching you stumble, your power muffled.

So, Putin, hear the laughter loud and clear,
As the Wagner group draws ever near.
Your reign, once feared, now tarnished and cracked,
By pigeons and warriors, who never lacked.

Impressive

 

[Martin Alvito]

From some reports the National guard are not resisting and allowing them to pass checkpoints.

If tens of thousands of men took up arms, you probably wouldn't argue with them either. You would keep your head down, and let professionals sort them out.

 

[PhilM]

So if he turns on Russia and the Russian MOD turn off the flow of money he’s down to reserves and pillaging as in days of old?

If that were to happen, you'd suspect they'd see the only possible alternative to surrender being going fully in - all or nothing - to maintain their survival.

 

[Taifi gorm]

So if he turns on Russia and the Russian MOD turn off the flow of money he’s down to reserves and pillaging as in days of old?

Or they've simply been bought off by the opposition. The recent African delegations to the region could of moved the final pieces on the board.

 

[Mrk]

Russian Army
2021: 2nd best army in the world
2022: 2nd best army in Ukraine
2023: 2nd best army in Russia

The special military operation is all going to plan, comrades.

 

[PhilM]

A good thread.