Current Affairs Ukraine

[PhilM]

While people certainly shouldn’t get carried away (patience is needed), this instability within the military and corridors of power could be the catalyst.

Ukraine needs to keep calm, continue to probe the Russian lines and maintain the pressure as Russia will need to divert some of their attention elsewhere.

 

[BNJ1878]

While people certainly shouldn’t get carried away (patience is needed), this instability within the military and corridors of power could be the catalyst.

Ukraine needs to keep calm, continue to probe the Russian lines and maintain the pressure as Russia will need to divert some of their attention elsewhere.

Agreed. Don't get too excited, just take advantage of the obvious distracting chaos.

An unbelievable night.

 

[hirons11]

I’m not military expert but could this be one almighty feint by the Russians to lure the Ukrainians into going to far to quick on their counter offensive? Just seems as fishy as f***

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

Wagner chief accuses Moscow of lying to public about Ukraine

Yevgeny Prigozhin dismisses justification for war that Kyiv was planning 2022 attack on Donbas and Crimea

www.theguardian.com

Reported in the Telegraph too.

All feels rather like a couple attempt might be on the cards. A putsch too far, perhaps?

 

[Cool_Blue]

It's nothing in comparison to what the British have done.

Your not a blue.

I demand reparations from the Romans, who do I get in touch with?

 

[PhilM]

I’m not military expert but could this be one almighty feint by the Russians to lure the Ukrainians into going to far to quick on their counter offensive? Just seems as fishy as f***

I get the sentiment, but Russia would need to be both organised and competent to pull it off, which they're neither. It's more than likely what it appears to be...

... a power struggle. We've got to be mindful of the credibility of what's coming out, however the early snippets suggest all is not good in Russia this morning.

Reports of fighting in Voronezh (on the way to Moscow), Rostov-on-Don having Wanger troops on the streets and potentially RU aircraft shot down.

So how will Putin deal with it? Appease Wanger and somehow get them back into the fight? Metaphorically (and perhaps literally) sever the head of Wagner?

If it's the former, he could be setting himself up for a blow later on as his authority will be questioned. The latter, it could be a death-blow to the war.

Wagner troops have helped stabilise the front with their experience and intensity, so without them, it'll be difficult. If they turn on Putin, it could be very messy.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

I get the sentiment, but Russia would need to be both organised and competent to pull it off, which they're neither. It's more than likely what it appears to be...

... a power struggle. We've got to be mindful of the credibility of what's coming out, however the early snippets suggest all is not good in Russia this morning.

Reports of fighting in Voronezh (on the way to Moscow), Rostov-on-Don having Wanger troops on the streets and potentially RU aircraft shot down.

So how will Putin deal with it? Appease Wanger and somehow get them back into the fight? Metaphorically (and perhaps literally) sever the head of Wagner?

If it's the former, he could be setting himself up for a blow later on as his authority will be questioned. The latter, it could be a death-blow to the war.

Wagner troops have helped stabilise the front with their experience and intensity, so without them, it'll be difficult. If they turn on Putin, it could be very messy.

The dictator playbook states he has to respond with force. Anything else is just kicking the can down the road.

 

[PhilM]

The dictator playbook states he has to respond with force. Anything else is just kicking the can down the road.

Which he’s done. Live to the nation, Putin has labelled it as treason and proclaimed that ‘… the armed forces have been given the necessary orders.’ Time to squash the coup.

But, what long term impact this will have is where they need to worry. Do they have the troops required to quell it? Without Wanger, how will the war go?

There’s already chatter that some military commanders in the south of Russia may have turned to Wagner, which would cause further instability.

He’s will come down hard, but hopefully this in itself with be the catalyst for change. Ukraine need to take advantage of this as much as possible.

Wagner has nearly a quarter of a million men in the region, and even if a fraction of those go against Putin it’s going to be a rough ride for the Kremlin.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

as has been pointed out by much wiser heads than on here, theres very little actual evidence for any of this yet:

It would appear that the alleged missile attack on Wagner forces in Ukraine was merely a casus belli, a spark to ignite the rebellion.

 

[hirons11]

I get the sentiment, but Russia would need to be both organised and competent to pull it off, which they're neither. It's more than likely what it appears to be...

... a power struggle. We've got to be mindful of the credibility of what's coming out, however the early snippets suggest all is not good in Russia this morning.

Reports of fighting in Voronezh (on the way to Moscow), Rostov-on-Don having Wanger troops on the streets and potentially RU aircraft shot down.

So how will Putin deal with it? Appease Wanger and somehow get them back into the fight? Metaphorically (and perhaps literally) sever the head of Wagner?

If it's the former, he could be setting himself up for a blow later on as his authority will be questioned. The latter, it could be a death-blow to the war.

Wagner troops have helped stabilise the front with their experience and intensity, so without them, it'll be difficult. If they turn on Putin, it could be very messy.

Thanks for that insight. Whilst people seem to be rejoicing at this development I can’t help feeling that a Russia under Putin is less of a threat to the world than an unstable one with on-going internal strife. Hopefully it will help the Ukrainians in their push to get them out of their country whatever.

 

[hirons11]

Which he’s done. Live to the nation, Putin has labelled it as treason and proclaimed that ‘… the armed forces have been given the necessary orders.’ Time to squash the coup.

But, what long term impact this will have is where they need to worry. Do they have the troops required to quell it? Without Wanger, how will the war go?

There’s already chatter that some military commanders in the south of Russia may have turned to Wagner, which would cause further instability.

He’s will come down hard, but hopefully this in itself with be the catalyst for change. Ukraine need to take advantage of this as much as possible.

Wagner has nearly a quarter of a million men in the region, and even if a fraction of those go against Putin it’s going to be a rough ride for the Kremlin.

How the hell do you run an army of 250,000 mercenaries? How is it funded?

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

How the hell do you run an army of 250,000 mercenaries? How is it funded?

African gold and rare earth minerals

 

[tsubaki]

It would appear that the alleged missile attack on Wagner forces in Ukraine was merely a casus belli, a trigger to ignite the rebellion.

probably of the Gulf of Tonkin kind, given some of the reports overnight that Wagner troops were texting loved ones telling them to watch the news the day before this

 

[tsubaki]

How the hell do you run an army of 250,000 mercenaries? How is it funded?

with the active support of the Russian MOD

 

[PhilM]

African gold and rare earth minerals

@hirons11 this, and through other channels straight from the Russian coffers. PMCs are illegal in Russia, but that hasn't stopped the FSB and co. allowing them.

What you've got here is a buffer between the state and the actions of the men at the front: it's provided a quasi-Russian army without the accountability measures.

Now however, they've got a relatively well-trained army, who are ferocious and without much moral judgement, sat on their door-step with their own intentions.

Russia has relied on them and still do so, which could leave a black-hole in their front line and maintaining their influence in other areas of the globe.