Current Affairs Ukraine

[peteblue]

the last thing anyone wants to do now is give them any excuse to come together to protect the country again

in fact just saying "go home, protect your families" could work better than fighting in terms of removing the Russian Army from Ukraine at this point

Indeed, let Ukraine get on with it. Make sure the Russians in Ukraine are aware of what’s going on and hopefully see them collapse and run…..

 

[stipe]

Guy probably prepared for this long time, God knows how many officers are backing him behind the scenes, just look how easily his columns are advancing

His whole excuse is that Gerasimov, Shoigu and their generals are incompetent and he is trying to "save" Russian army.

 

[tsubaki]

Prigozhin is ten time worse, this is the guy that want full scale mobilization and tactical nukes to be used, guy that think Putin is too soft.

If he takes over, this thing gonna escalate even more

Perhaps, though of all the Russian commanders he was the only one who actually expressed any kind of public respect for the Ukrainians and his last speech prior to launching this was to slate the reasons why the SMO was started. There are a lot of actual Nazis in and around Wagner, mind.

 

[tsubaki]

They ain't coming together again after this.. in way too deep, if the reports are accurate and he's actually brought military personnel into Russia and taken over towns and military HQ.. it's absolutely the right time to sow the boot in..

they would if a massive threat emerged over the horizon

 

[stipe]

Perhaps, though of all the Russian commanders he was the only one who actually expressed any kind of public respect for the Ukrainians and his last speech prior to launching this was to slate the reasons why the SMO was started. There are a lot of actual Nazis in and around Wagner, mind.

It was hardly a respect, it was just classic trick trying to make his enemies appear stronger so his accomplishment looks better. Whole thing about bitching about lack of ammunition and regular army failings served to same purpose.

Not to mention he said yesterday in his message that after he take over Wagner gonna return to front.

 

[blueblueday]

This has the scent of a black ops CIA intervention written all over it. Wagner has possibly done some sort of cash deal with the USA and agreed once the coup is complete not to have any Govt involvement moving forward. If he did become the new tsar its squeaky bum time as the guy is psychotic!

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Surely this can’t be bad thing for Ukraine they probably can’t believe their luck right now.

It's Russia so there is every chance that the outcome of this will be worse for all.

Hopefully though it might be a positive result.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Perhaps, though of all the Russian commanders he was the only one who actually expressed any kind of public respect for the Ukrainians and his last speech prior to launching this was to slate the reasons why the SMO was started. There are a lot of actual Nazis in and around Wagner, mind.

I just can't see Prigozhin holding together any kind of war coalition for long, should he unseat Putin. If he tries, I think it eventually ends much like 1991, when a third player came out on top.

 

[stipe]

I just can't see Prigozhin holding together any kind of war coalition for long, should he unseat Putin. If he tries, I think it eventually ends much like 1991, when a third player came out on top.

There are no visible third players though, nobody cares for Navalny in Russia and he got zero military influence. Majority of Russians are apolitical, especially in big cities, for them this is just some war they not really care much (a lot of soldiers are recruited from the East and Caucus).

If he takes over, army gonna be under his command, there are probably tons in the army who despise Shoigu and are just waiting how this gonna play out.

 

[Martin Alvito]

There are no visible third players though, nobody cares for Navalny in Russia and he got zero military influence. Majority of Russians are apolitical, especially in big cities, for them this is just some war they not really care much (a lot of soldiers are recruited from the East and Caucus).

If he takes over, army gonna be under his command, there are probably tons in the army who despise Shoigu and are just waiting how this gonna play out.

Prigozhin would be facing the same structural problem that Putin now faces. If he wants to win the war in Ukraine, he has to put most of his assets there. That leaves him vulnerable to a counter-coup.

It wouldn't happen tomorrow, but no one woke up thinking Kerensky or Yanayev would fall to Lenin or Yeltsin the morning after they struck, either.

 

[Yarrgh]

There are no visible third players though, nobody cares for Navalny in Russia and he got zero military influence. Majority of Russians are apolitical, especially in big cities, for them this is just some war they not really care much (a lot of soldiers are recruited from the East and Caucus).

If he takes over, army gonna be under his command, there are probably tons in the army who despise Shoigu and are just waiting how this gonna play out.

Correct. But as for a third player, look out for a wild card if Prigozhin achieves anything.

 

[tsubaki]

I just can't see Prigozhin holding together any kind of war coalition for long, should he unseat Putin. If he tries, I think it eventually ends much like 1991, when a third player came out on top.

I don't think its unlikely - Putin has hollowed out the system so much that there isn't an obvious institutional rival to him, nor is there a plausible base for one to emerge.

If (and it is a big if at this point) at least some of the regular Army are sympathising with Prizoghin, then its hard to see anyone who could get into a position to take over from him if he gets to Moscow and removes Putin. The crisis will come when he has to consider whether to keep the SMO going or not (as it did in 1917); I think he'd call it off and blame the previous regime for its incompetence / corruption because there would be so many rewards for doing so, domestically and in terms of foreign support.

I mean, I have no doubt whatsoever that if he did end the SMO with some kind of deal he could accept (say Crimea is recognized as Russian and sanctions lifted, withdrawal from all other parts of Ukraine) then we in the West would grab that with both arms.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I don't think its unlikely - Putin has hollowed out the system so much that there isn't an obvious institutional rival to him, nor is there a plausible base for one to emerge.

If (and it is a big if at this point) at least some of the regular Army are sympathising with Prizoghin, then its hard to see anyone who could get into a position to take over from him if he gets to Moscow and removes Putin. The crisis will come when he has to consider whether to keep the SMO going or not (as it did in 1917); I think he'd call it off and blame the previous regime for its incompetence / corruption because there would be so many rewards for doing so, domestically and in terms of foreign support.

I mean, I have no doubt whatsoever that if he did end the SMO with some kind of deal he could accept (say Crimea is recognized as Russian and sanctions lifted, withdrawal from all other parts of Ukraine) then we in the West would grab that with both arms.

It would be the smart play, from Prigozhin's perspective. He's also under indictment in the United States for election interference, so it will not be an easy sell.

 

[Tipp blue]

This has the scent of a black ops CIA intervention written all over it. Wagner has possibly done some sort of cash deal with the USA and agreed once the coup is complete not to have any Govt involvement moving forward. If he did become the new tsar its squeaky bum time as the guy is psychotic!

Only a few days after the 6.5 billion accounting error from the US military... Now where's the tin foil?

 

[stipe]

I don't think its unlikely - Putin has hollowed out the system so much that there isn't an obvious institutional rival to him, nor is there a plausible base for one to emerge.

If (and it is a big if at this point) at least some of the regular Army are sympathising with Prizoghin, then its hard to see anyone who could get into a position to take over from him if he gets to Moscow and removes Putin. The crisis will come when he has to consider whether to keep the SMO going or not (as it did in 1917); I think he'd call it off and blame the previous regime for its incompetence / corruption because there would be so many rewards for doing so, domestically and in terms of foreign support.

I mean, I have no doubt whatsoever that if he did end the SMO with some kind of deal he could accept (say Crimea is recognized as Russian and sanctions lifted, withdrawal from all other parts of Ukraine) then we in the West would grab that with both arms.

I don't think he would give Donbass though, population there are pro-Russian and there a lot of natural resources.