Current Affairs Ukraine

[peteblue]

There is some strategic importance, but most is symbolic.

Like Lysychansk to the north, Bakhmut is a key hub for the road/motorway network in the region, with major routes passing through or nearby to the city.

If Russia wants to advance quickly, it'll be in their best interest to seize the city, and likewise for Ukraine to push on it's best to hold the city. This is a key factor.

Right now, Russian troops are being thrown in the meat grinder, which is giving time for Ukraine to prepare defences and/or prepare for an offensive.

Indeed….

 

[PhilM]

Indeed….

If reports are to be believed too, they've used relatively minimal forces to maintain the city, and by that I mean men (numbers and quality units) and equipment.

The amount of effort Russia is putting in to seizing a city, with only limited importance in terms of the wider war, will be detrimental to their wider capability.

This number will only get higher and higher...

 

[Yarrgh]

It may have no obvious military strategic importance, but politically it has strategic importance. I think I read that Ukraine are killing 5/6 Russians for every 1 of their own, so it’s a great place to decimate Russia even if it’s just killing off all of their convicts. A win for Russia there bolsters Putin and allows Wagner to claim glory although at great loss, Ukraine will just fall back and focus somewhere else, a loss there will possibly do in Putin and almost certainly Prigozhin…

Instead of thinking you may have read, try to find some evidence to back up your claims. I think you're probably not too wrong in this instance!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War links some of the various estimates for fatalities and casualties.

The fatality and casualties rates are high on both sides. Discounting the Ukrainian and Russian estimates which are ludicrously low for themselves and high for their enemy, Russian forces are being "reduced" at a rate of between 2-2.5 to 1.

If both sides were of equal size then this would be an absolute win for Ukraine. However given the relative size of the two forces and the longheld Russian tactic of grinding through their own forces then the Ukrainian side will be the one that runs out of able bodies first.

 

[EFCthechosenone]

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on March 8 that Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut, a claim consistent with available visual evidence.[1] ISW assessed on March 7 that Ukrainian forces completed a controlled withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut across the Bakhmutka River.[2] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control between 45 to 52 percent of Bakhmut as of March 7.[3] This figure is reasonable; ISW assesses that Russian forces now occupy at least 50 percent of Bakhmut as of March 8. Russian forces will likely intensify attacks in northwestern and southwestern Bakhmut (north from Opytne and south from Yahidne, respectively) to circumnavigate the Bakhmutka River.

Russian forces remain unlikely to rapidly exploit a breakthrough beyond Bakhmut if Russian forces capture the city. Prigozhin implied on March 8 that the Russian Ministry of Defense used the Wagner Group to bear the brunt of high-intensity attritional urban warfare in Bakhmut and may discard the Wagner Group after capturing Bakhmut so conventional Russian units can continue to attack.[4] Prigozhin did not provide an assessment of the likelihood of success of future Russian offensive operations beyond Bakhmut. ISW has not observed any indicators that the Russian military has a well-equipped and prepared reserve force to advance beyond Bakhmut. Most observed Russian units in Donbas are already engaged in offensive operations, including Russian airborne (VDV) elements that joined the Russian offensive in Bakhmut in January 2023.[5] ISW continues to assess that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will shortly culminate if Russian forces capture Bakhmut, as the Russian military does not have the combat power or reinforcements necessary to exploit a breakthrough near Bakhmut.[6] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on March 8 that the Russian capture of Bakhmut would not “necessarily reflect any turning point of the war.”[7]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on March 8 that Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut, a claim consistent with available visual evidence.[1] ISW assessed on March 7 that Ukrainian forces completed a controlled withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut across the Bakhmutka River.[2] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control between 45 to 52 percent of Bakhmut as of March 7.[3] This figure is reasonable; ISW assesses that Russian forces now occupy at least 50 percent of Bakhmut as of March 8. Russian forces will likely intensify attacks in northwestern and southwestern Bakhmut (north from Opytne and south from Yahidne, respectively) to circumnavigate the Bakhmutka River.

Russian forces remain unlikely to rapidly exploit a breakthrough beyond Bakhmut if Russian forces capture the city. Prigozhin implied on March 8 that the Russian Ministry of Defense used the Wagner Group to bear the brunt of high-intensity attritional urban warfare in Bakhmut and may discard the Wagner Group after capturing Bakhmut so conventional Russian units can continue to attack.[4] Prigozhin did not provide an assessment of the likelihood of success of future Russian offensive operations beyond Bakhmut. ISW has not observed any indicators that the Russian military has a well-equipped and prepared reserve force to advance beyond Bakhmut. Most observed Russian units in Donbas are already engaged in offensive operations, including Russian airborne (VDV) elements that joined the Russian offensive in Bakhmut in January 2023.[5] ISW continues to assess that the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will shortly culminate if Russian forces capture Bakhmut, as the Russian military does not have the combat power or reinforcements necessary to exploit a breakthrough near Bakhmut.[6] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on March 8 that the Russian capture of Bakhmut would not “necessarily reflect any turning point of the war.”[7]

Good synopsis

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Massive Russian cruise missile attack underway at the moment.They seem to be targeting a number of cities in western Ukraine and using Moldovan airspace for missile transit to avoid Uke air defences.

 

[PhilM]

Massive Russian cruise missile attack underway at the moment.They seem to be targeting a number of cities in western Ukraine and using Moldovan airspace for missile transit to avoid Uke air defences.

Reported to be a mixture of SSM, ASM and drone strikes. The fact that the frequency of these attacks is decreasing suggests low stocks.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Reported to be a mixture of SSM, ASM and drone strikes. The fact that the frequency of these attacks is decreasing suggests low stocks.

Hopefully. Ukraine really needs Patriot and Iris-T on-line now.

 

[peteblue]

Instead of thinking you may have read, try to find some evidence to back up your claims. I think you're probably not too wrong in this instance!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War links some of the various estimates for fatalities and casualties.

The fatality and casualties rates are high on both sides. Discounting the Ukrainian and Russian estimates which are ludicrously low for themselves and high for their enemy, Russian forces are being "reduced" at a rate of between 2-2.5 to 1.

If both sides were of equal size then this would be an absolute win for Ukraine. However given the relative size of the two forces and the longheld Russian tactic of grinding through their own forces then the Ukrainian side will be the one that runs out of able bodies first.

I’m awfully sorry I didn’t do a nine month research project on this in quoting that ‘I think I read’…

Anyway…” Nato sources estimate five Russians are dying for every one Ukrainian in Bakhmut. Ukraine's national security secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, says the ratio is even higher at seven to one.”

Ukraine war: Why Bakhmut matters for Russia and Ukraine

Tens of thousands have died fighting for a city with little strategic value. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Yarrgh]

I’m awfully sorry I didn’t do a nine month research project on this in quoting that ‘I think I read’…

Anyway…” Nato sources estimate five Russians are dying for every one Ukrainian in Bakhmut. Ukraine's national security secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, says the ratio is even higher at seven to one.”

Ukraine war: Why Bakhmut matters for Russia and Ukraine

Tens of thousands have died fighting for a city with little strategic value. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk

You are forgiven.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Reported to be a mixture of SSM, ASM and drone strikes. The fact that the frequency of these attacks is decreasing suggests low stocks.

Looks like fired at least six Kinzhal “Hypersonic missiles” during the latest attack. First time this type of missile has been used as they are very expensive. Kinda validates your point about the Ru running out of regular cruise/ballistic missiles.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

One day in the not too distant future Ukraine will return the favour in kind. Russia is despicable.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Putin's Forces Putting World On 'Brink Of Nuclear Catastrophe' After Zaporizhzhia Strike

This is just crazy.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

USAF B52 flying patterns on the Romanian/Moldovan border. Closest they’ve been to the conflict area.

 

[Yarrgh]

USAF B52 flying patterns on the Romanian/Moldovan border. Closest they’ve been to the conflict area.

If Russian missiles were in Moldovan airspace then a show of force is required. Anything in their airspace is surely fair game.