Current Affairs Ukraine

[blulouie]

Bit of a ballsy tactic that.

Suppose if it was the reason and they missed, they cant very well have another go. Should help Ukraine.

Or maybe the missiles where destined for Lviv and intercepted by Ukraine Air defence systems.

 

[Tin-Tin]

Or maybe the missiles where destined for Lviv and intercepted by Ukraine Air defence systems.

Seen that one too. Suppose we will hear more after an investigation. Worrying times though.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Extremely provocative and extremely dangerous and I can see Poland as a response pushing forward their AD systems right up to the border with Ukraine and updating the ROE of their gunners and pilots to engage anything hostile upto 70-80km into Ukraine, effectively creating an enforced NATO air exclusion zone over Western Ukraine.

Nice one Putin lad

You've surely made a mistake there as I have it on good authority (Russian ministry of defence) that this is in fact a deliberately provocation by NATO countries why a Russian missile missed Ukraine and hit Poland.

Sort of similar when I slap the supermarket checkout person and claim extreme provocation on me and my sore hand.

 

[Tin-Tin]

 

[devogue]

 

[Martin Alvito]

I've seen that important electricity lines were in that area. That said I don't think it was deliberate.

Right now most likely explanation is Ukrainian AD shooting down a Russian missile.

I took a look at a few maps of Ukraine's power grid. The Russians definitely could have been targeting one of the connections with Poland, on either side of the border. If we're talking an S-300, there are versions of that with enough reach if launched from southwestern Belarus.

It seems like the Russians would have a tough time severing the connections in the southwest of Ukraine to Romania and other countries, though, due to distance. They're certainly not doing it with an S-300 launched from Belarus.

The ones in the southwest carry a lot more load, according to the maps I'm seeing. You would need an expert to say what the implications from severing the smaller connection in the northern part of the country would be. It takes less than you think to screw up modern power grids or a portion thereof, especially the mess here in the US, and I don't know how taxing it would be to send stuff up from the south.

Either way, that northern connection would represent a drop in the bucket, relative to Ukraine's total power consumption. The ones in the southwest have the potential to do a lot more lifting...if the power can be supplied without causing problems elsewhere, which is a question for which I can't easily turn up an answer.

 

[Goat]

 

[blulouie]

I bet they do.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Militery guy on newsnight saying Russia military equipment shortages (missiles) mean they are having to rework surface to air missiles to hit grounnd targets, so lack accuracy.

This type of thing.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Yarrgh]

Incredibly awkward situation.

On the one hand, letting it pass will prompt more of the same. On the other hand, retaliation in kind could prompt escalation.

The smart play is probably to pass it off as an accident, quietly let Ukraine have something nice and let them dirty their hands with it. Then, tell the Russians through the back channel, "That was our answer to last time. Good job finding a blind spot. Next time, no more Mr. Nice Guy. We had our little chat, and if you do something like that again we do 'x'."


I don't think so. There will be a private discussion about what level of provocation will lead to general agreement to invoke Article 5, as well as what to do about the present situation. Inaction isn't an option IMO, but public action probably isn't advisable at this point.

Or it could be the Russian response to the bridge? It happened whilst the G20 is going on and Lavrov would sit there and say it without a second thought.

 

[Yarrgh]

This is quite possibly the explanation. However it begs the question as to why Russia is targeting cruise missile strikes right on the border with a NATO country.

Extremely provocative and extremely dangerous and I can see Poland as a response pushing forward their AD systems right up to the border with Ukraine and updating the ROE of their gunners and pilots to engage anything hostile upto 70-80km into Ukraine, effectively creating an enforced NATO air exclusion zone over Western Ukraine.

Nice one Putin lad

Because he thinks he can get away with it. It gets played off at home as the NATO forces being weak and it further deteriorates Ukrainian infrastructure.

I see no reason that NATO does not deploy anti missile capability to the border and target anything remotely close to the border. I'd be tempted to float the idea of putting in NATO defensive capability in Western Ukraine now - that would be justifiable now.

 

[spectateur]

Because he thinks he can get away with it. It gets played off at home as the NATO forces being weak and it further deteriorates Ukrainian infrastructure.

I see no reason that NATO does not deploy anti missile capability to the border and target anything remotely close to the border. I'd be tempted to float the idea of putting in NATO defensive capability in Western Ukraine now - that would be justifiable now.

So, escalation.
Just what Poutine wants.

 

[Yarrgh]

So, escalation.
Just what Poutine wants.

It's coming to some sort of head ain't it? Need an off ramp that's acceptable to all sides.

What's the definition of a compromise? Something everyone accepts and no one is happy with.