Current Affairs Ukraine
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peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Not really, the sensible people will take over, accidents happen, apologies and reparation can be accepted, and NATO will use it as a means to increase military aid. But without doubt Russia will now lose any ground including the Crimea within Ukraine……
Martin Alvito
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Incredibly awkward situation.
On the one hand, letting it pass will prompt more of the same. On the other hand, retaliation in kind could prompt escalation.
The smart play is probably to pass it off as an accident, quietly let Ukraine have something nice and let them dirty their hands with it. Then, tell the Russians through the back channel, "That was our answer to last time. Good job finding a blind spot. Next time, no more Mr. Nice Guy. We had our little chat, and if you do something like that again we do 'x'."
I don't think so. There will be a private discussion about what level of provocation will lead to general agreement to invoke Article 5, as well as what to do about the present situation. Inaction isn't an option IMO, but public action probably isn't advisable at this point.
Just thinking about the missiles being knocked off course by Ukrainian missile defence systems - what are the chances of 2 separately hit missiles/rockets being knocked off course in the same direction?!?
The binman chronicles
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Pretty confident they know Nato aren't going to fire a load of missiles into Russia for 2 unfortunate deaths. Could Poland lob a few of their own accord and thus trigger a retaliation is another thing. I would have thought we'd need a few more rogue missile strikes first.
Possibly could be remains of Ukrainian s-300 anti air and its target (Russian cruise missile)
MichaelEFC96
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Not if it’s a direct attack on NATO territory. “We will defend every inch of NATO territory” sounds like they’re not playing round, but we’re talking about a massive nuclear power here, cooler heads would have to take over.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
And they will….
Poland will already have been quite firmly told to not do anything, yet. The Kremlin will be told, if they haven't already, that it cannot happen again.
With a pinch of salt and all that, however, NATO contingencies could mean anti-aircraft are pushed right up to the front, including air sorties.
If Russia put anything else up in the air and over the front, it could be fair game.
I’m not saying it would be accepted; I’m saying, Poland would be within their right to want to invoke it.
Who are these sensible people Pete ?
Martin Alvito
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It's a good excuse to trot SAMs right up to the border, that's for sure, and even use them to stop any strikes near the Polish border. Then, there can be a bunch of theatrical hand-wringing. "Sorry, but Duda can't afford to look weak. We have to keep missiles out of his territory. If it gets close enough that Ukrainian assets shooting it down might cause another incident, we have to do something about it. Discussion over."
I think they'll realize that the smart play is to stop at Article 4, personally. They won't get an Article 5 decision through, so there's no reason to even ask. It just looks bad when the other member states say 'no'.
Oh 100% agree. I also support Ukraine and think what Putin has done is awful - and always have done.
I think there's a lot of blurred lines, though. We'll see what happens with this latest escalation, let's hope it's not going to drag more nations into this.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
In NATO. No one will overreact but additional arms and anti missile defences will now be ramped up and supplied to Ukraine and on the boarders of NATO countries. Russia will be gone from Ukraine within 6 months……
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