Current Affairs Ukraine

[PhilM]

I'm in danger of being wildly off topic here, but just watched a video of the battle of Isandlwana ((Victorian Brits vs Zulus), where the British force of 1,500 was totally wiped out. I'm thinking Putin would have done well to watch it before his Ukraine adventure.

The war, itself, was ego, rather than judgement-driven (always high risk). Then, there was misjudgement after horrific misjudgement, mostly resulting from a mistaken assumption of innate superiority, dodgy intelligence, and failing to realise who was the hunter, and who the hunted. Just goes to show that although science and art may advance, basic human failings and weaknesses remain as disastrous as ever. Tragic, really.

It’s a quite a fair comparison to be fair: the Battle of Isandlawana was a defeat unlike any the British army had seen in a long, long time.

As you mention, huge misjudgments and poor tactical decisions making including not laagering the wagons and splitting the force brought disaster.

The only worrying part is that, if history is repeating itself, we came back and gave the Zulus a huge hiding and won the war.

 

[Martin Alvito]

sí

And yet I can't make out a friggin' word of Portuguese. It's always, "I can  almost understand what they're saying, but..."

 

[bluestevon]

Just curious, how similar are the Ukrainian and Russian languages? Akin to Portuguese and Spanish?

It's understandable as enough words share a common etymology or have crossed over into each other's but different enough that a lot will still be lost - especially on any more complicated conversation

 

[davids]

Not confirmed.

Doesn't need to be,it's gospel on Twitter within minutes.?

 

[bluestevon]

The big problem with this analysis is that it is precisely these annexations / "independence movements" that is what is demographically pushing Ukraine away from Russia.

Prior to 2014 things were reasonably balanced between the pro-Russian and Ukrainian nationalist fringes and so the mass of the people in the middle could vote for leaders based on the usual political criteria (with occasional interference from outside players of course). Take a big chunk of the pro-Russian electorate away (as they did in 2014) and you obviously are going to upset that balance because they are not going to be voting. Take another bit of it away now and just doing that will mean that the remaining pro-Russian part of the Ukrainian electorate will shrink to insignificance, even without taking into account the impact of the SMO on them.

The same logic applies to NATO presence in Ukraine - the longer this goes on, the more dependent Ukraine will be on NATO and the more likely it is that the only acceptable security guarantees they would accept for a peace deal would be from NATO. Had 2014 and the long buildup to Feb 2022 not happened, they would not be dependent on NATO.

In terms of Ukraine the coup of 2014 was the single worst thing that could have occurred ultimately. It set in course the chain of events that have led to now. Yes there have been multiple missed off ramps since but that event was the catalyst moment that internally split the country.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

US congress signs off an addition $12Billion for Ukraine. This is massive and makes a huge statement. It will be interesting to see exactly what’s included in this new package.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-negotiators-set-12-bln-new-ukraine-aid-2022-09-26/

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Abrams tanks are now on the table. 60 which the Marine Corp just retired. Not the more advanced A1M2 at the moment but as Putin continues to his million man army the west will respond in kind and the newer model will be introduced.

Heavy-Hitting American Tanks Are ‘On the Table’ for Ukraine’s Army

The move would reflect a major change of policy, buoyed by Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in the east.

www.popularmechanics.com

 

[Glasshalffull]

It’s a quite a fair comparison to be fair: the Battle of Isandlawana was a defeat unlike any the British army had seen in a long, long time.

As you mention, huge misjudgments and poor tactical decisions making including not laagering the wagons and splitting the force brought disaster.

The only worrying part is that, if history is repeating itself, we came back and gave the Zulus a huge hiding and won the war.

Yes, although, like all comparisons, this only works so far. The British Empire, having been pissed off and humiliated, did have infinitely superior forces to the Zulus. Russia, despite its size, doesn't have infinitely superior forces to Ukraine, especially with the bolster of the West's tech and weaponry.

 

[Ruairi77]

In terms of Ukraine the coup of 2014 was the single worst thing that could have occurred ultimately. It set in course the chain of events that have led to now. Yes there have been multiple missed off ramps since but that event was the catalyst moment that internally split the country.

to suggest 2014 internally split the country is to suggest that half of Ukraine supported the Russian invasion.
I would have thought support for that invasion would only have come from a percentage of pro Russian Ukranians from the eastern regions.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

to suggest 2014 internally split the country is to suggest that half of Ukraine supported the Russian invasion.
I would have thought support for that invasion would only have come from a percentage of pro Russian Ukranians from the eastern regions.

Preaching to the converted there mate.

 

[tsubaki]

In terms of Ukraine the coup of 2014 was the single worst thing that could have occurred ultimately. It set in course the chain of events that have led to now. Yes there have been multiple missed off ramps since but that event was the catalyst moment that internally split the country.

That didn't happen in a vacuum though - it was the consequence of Yanukovych throwing away the support he genuinely did have at one point in favour of lining his own pockets and then marching his country up the hill of the EU Agreement only in order to abandon it at the top.

Like with Iran at present (or the UK in a few months potentially), when a government deliberately or through uncaring incompetence stokes public dissent it will always run the risk of being turfed out. The risk increases when they also block off any legitimate means for something sensible to be done before things get to that point.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

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