Current Affairs Ukraine

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The big problem with this analysis is that it is precisely these annexations / "independence movements" that is what is demographically pushing Ukraine away from Russia.

Prior to 2014 things were reasonably balanced between the pro-Russian and Ukrainian nationalist fringes and so the mass of the people in the middle could vote for leaders based on the usual political criteria (with occasional interference from outside players of course). Take a big chunk of the pro-Russian electorate away (as they did in 2014) and you obviously are going to upset that balance because they are not going to be voting. Take another bit of it away now and just doing that will mean that the remaining pro-Russian part of the Ukrainian electorate will shrink to insignificance, even without taking into account the impact of the SMO on them.

The same logic applies to NATO presence in Ukraine - the longer this goes on, the more dependent Ukraine will be on NATO and the more likely it is that the only acceptable security guarantees they would accept for a peace deal would be from NATO. Had 2014 and the long buildup to Feb 2022 not happened, they would not be dependent on NATO.
With no workable diplomatic resolution in sight the only outcome can be a drawn out stalemate with the attendant danger of a nuclear miscalculation.
 
I'm in danger of being wildly off topic here, but just watched a video of the battle of Isandlwana ((Victorian Brits vs Zulus), where the British force of 1,500 was totally wiped out. I'm thinking Putin would have done well to watch it before his Ukraine adventure.

The war, itself, was ego, rather than judgement-driven (always high risk). Then, there was misjudgement after horrific misjudgement, mostly resulting from a mistaken assumption of innate superiority, dodgy intelligence, and failing to realise who was the hunter, and who the hunted. Just goes to show that although science and art may advance, basic human failings and weaknesses remain as disastrous as ever. Tragic, really.
 
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