Current Affairs Ukraine

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Cause for concern?
"Russia is planning to annex the regions of southern and eastern Ukraine it has occupied after holding self-styled referendums. President Putin says he is ready to defend the "territorial integrity" of the regions "by all means."
US intelligence see this as a threat to the West not to help Ukraine try and retake these territories, rather than as a sign that he is planning a nuclear war.
But others worry that Russia, if it suffers further setbacks, might be tempted to use a smaller tactical weapon in Ukraine as a "game changer", to break a stalemate or avoid defeat.
James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Pace in Washington DC, says: "I am legitimately worried that in that circumstance, Putin might use a nuclear weapon - most likely on the ground in Ukraine to terrify everyone and get his way. We are not at that point yet."
 
All very worrying.

The conjunction of increasingly direct US involvement in the war and increasing evidence that the US is preventing a negotiated end to the war, seems now to have led Russia to the conclusion that Ukraine and the West will never agree to a diplomatic settlement that is acceptable to Russia.

That conclusion entails the realization that Russia will never receive guarantees either that there will be no Ukraine in NATO or that there will be no NATO in Ukraine. Following the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia has now likely realized the reality of NATO in Ukraine.

And that crystallizes Ukraine as a security threat to Russia. Even if Ukraine never joins NATO, NATO has taken up house in Ukraine.

In the early stages of the war, Ukraine and Russia were both open to a diplomatic settlement that would create an independent Donbass with a neutral Ukraine outside NATO and NATO outside Ukraine. With the US and NATO contributing more advanced long-range weaponry, training and intelligence to a war that they are becoming increasingly directly involved in while increasingly preventing a negotiated cessation to the hostilities, Russia likely no longer sees that as a possibility. The "fundamental problem" that Russia now sees, according to Dmitri Tremin, is "Russia having to live side-by-side with a state that will constantly seek revenge and will be used by the United States, which arms and directs it, in its effort to threaten and weaken Russia."

The problem, then, has become a much bigger problem. Russia no longer sees the war as a regional war with Ukraine with a reachable diplomatic solution, but as a wider war being fought in Ukraine with the US and NATO with a diplomatic solution having been prohibited.

Ted Snider has a graduate degree in philosophy and writes on analyzing patterns in US foreign policy and history.
 
Cause for concern?
"Russia is planning to annex the regions of southern and eastern Ukraine it has occupied after holding self-styled referendums. President Putin says he is ready to defend the "territorial integrity" of the regions "by all means."
US intelligence see this as a threat to the West not to help Ukraine try and retake these territories, rather than as a sign that he is planning a nuclear war.
But others worry that Russia, if it suffers further setbacks, might be tempted to use a smaller tactical weapon in Ukraine as a "game changer", to break a stalemate or avoid defeat.
James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Pace in Washington DC, says: "I am legitimately worried that in that circumstance, Putin might use a nuclear weapon - most likely on the ground in Ukraine to terrify everyone and get his way. We are not at that point yet."
This is hilarious! How you can write that without dying of shame?
It literally points out that Russia is to blame for Annexing Parts of Ukraine and may use nukes and you STILL blame the west

Effing genius
 

No surprise at all.


Former PM of Sweden.
 
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