Current Affairs Ukraine

[LostLegend]

Believe me China knows full well the disintegration of Russia will be a major benefit to them. Europe will also benefit. Russia will never be trusted again and yes the US can focus on the pacific. Heard a retired General this morning saying Russia’s corruption has weakened them beyond belief and it has become shocking. Just fired there logistical General as casualties and equipment have been unprecedented. From the top down it has been a epic fail.

Makes you wonder if that's not their long term play in all of this.

There have been murmurings of independence movements in Siberia where huge amount of Russia's Gas and Oil fields are located.
A fracturing of the country could allow China to play their usual role of offering their help in logistics in exchange for more favorable deals in their natural resources.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Dmitry Bulgakov: Putin fires deputy defence chief amid supply failures

Analysts have cited supply chains as a reason why Russia's invasion of Ukraine has faltered.

www.bbc.com

Anyone know anything about this Mizintsev character other than the Mariupol campaign? I can't find much - he seems to be more or less a non-entity prior to the war. He seems to be more of a back-office character, so it makes sense to appoint him to fix the supply problems, but what I'm interested in is where his political loyalties might lie.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Like to see what Putin has in store for the eastern regions especially the Mongols. Conscription won’t go down very well their. After the Soviet breakup they had second thoughts being aligned with Moscow. Expect turbulence muted by the Russian media until the Chinese wants it to be known. What we may be witnessing is a European Russia and Eastern Russia splitting.

 

[PhilM]

Makes you wonder if that's not their long term play in all of this.

I'd disagree that China are shaping towards a full disintegration of Russia, or that they would be happy for it to naturally occur. It's not in their long term interests.

As others have mentioned, a weak and wounded Russia, but one that could still keep the eye's of the west on it, would facilitate their own interests in the east.

They'll still have a partner on their north-western border, somewhere to buy cheap energy from and (you'd suspect) a market to eventually sell weaponry too.

When this all eventually blows over, Russia will be clinging to them, and that's their goal. A Putin without Russia may not be a friend, and NATO may look east.

They want Russia bludgeoned and beaten yet able to still stand in the way of China's real enemy.

 

[LostLegend]

 

[davids]

Based on the experiences of numerous conflicts, a lot, sadly. War can, if left unchecked, let the sadist and macabre prosper and cause untold misery.

I know I've said it before, but I suspect that most people want this war to end, and that will eventually be as a result of some form of ceasefire.

On that, we can agree. The devil is the detail and right now any form of ceasefire may benefit Russia more than Ukraine et al., in the short-term and long-term.

Ukraine will have lost vital territory, it's people in the occupied territory would be at risk of persecution and the state would remain at risk of further hostilities.

All things considered, is to their advantage? It's not as simple as going, 'Make peace now' and I suspect you may know that, hence the agenda concerns.

This is why many people, including those in power, will sustain the war until it reaches a position where Ukraine's sovereignty and its population are safe.

Sadly, and I truly mean that, a consequence of that will be more untimely deaths, yet again the consideration of more misery and death in the future.

It's an easy if not imperfect comparison, but in WWII the UK could have sought peace in 1940 to 'to end the deaths of innocent women and children.'`

But would it have, and for whom? The innocent people of UK alone or are to consider in France, Italy, Russia, the Baltic States and Germany itself.

Maintaining the status quo, with Putin in charge, will likely cause more innocent deaths in Ukraine and let's not ignore Russia itself, where change is required.

Honestly, do you think stopping the war now would be the best solution for all now and in the future, or would it benefit one side more than the other?

Before you reference past wars instigated by the west and how western arms manufactures are benefiting too, I'm not oblivious to that either.

But again, all things concerned, who is the greatest threat to the Ukrainian people and likewise the Russian people? My answer starts with a P...

When Ukraine has retained their interests and Russian hasn't been proven correct to attack a country (killing innocent people), a ceasefire will be offered.

I think the only people who should have a say in a ceasefire are the women and children sheltering in makeshift bunkers,not members of social media forums. It's all very well to hypothesise on political outcomes in the future but right now they are the ones suffering daily. It might be worth pointing out that for many weeks the fighting has been centred in and around the Donbass,so those very civilians are more likely than not ethnic Russian. Their safety in the future must be considered and sadly the Ukraine don't have a good record in their dealings with them. There are many BBC news reports of the treatment of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and they don't make for pleasant viewing. That's why I'm hoping that a UN neutral buffer force could be negotiated while a longer term solution can be found...but I'm not holding my breath. The US are making hay in the oil and arms markets so,on it'll go.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[PhilM]

I think the only people who should have a say in a ceasefire are the women and children sheltering in makeshift bunkers,not members of social media forums.

What about the elected leaders of a democratic country like Ukraine being able to make the decisions?

 

[AndyC]

An interesting perspective on what might be coming down the pipeline - from a pretty well-respected observer of military conflicts...

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[AndyC]

The tide is turning rapidly and it's going badly for Putin.

There are reports of circa 4000 Russians surrounded in the NE that have no way out and been given an option of die or surrender.
If/when they do the sensible thing of surrendering, this could be the dambreaker.

 

[davids]

They're already cutting off genitals of living POW's.
How much worse can it get?

It's not as all one way as the west would Iike it portrait. There was and maybe still are videos of Ukrainian Azov shooting dead injured Russian POWs and one particularly nasty one of a Russian having his eyes gouged out with a bayonet. War brings out the worst in the human condition.

 

[PhilM]

@bluestevon if true...

 

[LostLegend]

Sounds like they've been reading from the same 'Fit for work' book the DWP over here have been using.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I think the only people who should have a say in a ceasefire are the women and children sheltering in makeshift bunkers,not members of social media forums. It's all very well to hypothesise on political outcomes in the future but right now they are the ones suffering daily. It might be worth pointing out that for many weeks the fighting has been centred in and around the Donbass,so those very civilians are more likely than not ethnic Russian. Their safety in the future must be considered and sadly the Ukraine don't have a good record in their dealings with them. There are many BBC news reports of the treatment of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and they don't make for pleasant viewing. That's why I'm hoping that a UN neutral buffer force could be negotiated while a longer term solution can be found...but I'm not holding my breath. The US are making hay in the oil and arms markets so,on it'll go.

I think the main causes of the persistence of wars of aggression are the risks associated with a direct confrontation between nuclear powers, and the domestic political costs associated with interventions by democratic states.

If you're not willing to volunteer for a fighting force to serve as the world's policeman, then I think the 'women and children' rhetoric rings pretty hollow. That outcome doesn't obtain without the blood of other innocents who are willing to lay down their lives to make it happen.