Current Affairs Ukraine

[wm02]

Love his restaurants and sincerely hope he receives the Nobel Peace Prize one day.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

By such logic if somehow he did the order and it was carried out and NATO responded in kind (they wouldn't btw) then I'd imagine you'd believe whichever president gave that order would similarly be taken out ?

If not then goodbye world

NATO would respond in kind - you would be saying goodbye to Murmansk.

 

[LinekersLegs]

It's the one option out of mdny that would not happen if by Full withdrawal he means leaving Crimea, the Russian people view Crimea as Russian, it'd be viewed to them as the equivalent of giving up St Petersburg

If it was between leaving Crimea and option 1 ( full mobilzation and conscription to retain it) you really think it would be option 1?

 

[tsubaki]

Given the amount of equipment captured and the number of Russians either killed or captured, I’m calling this the end of Putin’s SMO. He no longer has the force strength to conduct offensive ops in Ukraine.

So what options does he have?

1. Full mobilization and conscription. This will end Russia and he knows this.

2. Lob a tactical nuke or two into the fray. NATO will respond in kind. Very bad scenario

3. Request ceasefire and full withdrawal of all Russian forces back into Russian territory. Quite possibly this is the only valid option he has left.

It all depends what they are doing, whether this is a genuine collapse or not - there might be a further option:

4. Pull back into the expanded DPR / LPR and dig in, claiming the SMO has been successfully carried out. He could sell that - Ukraine will have suffered severe damage that will take decades to repair, the republics will have been "protected" and an offered ceasefire with gradual sanctions removal would put splits in some of the West (as leaders here could claim that Ukraine "won" but now we need to get energy prices down etc etc).

I think that is most likely, unless everything has collapsed in which case god knows.

 

[tsubaki]

Far more likely that it's a mixture of the Russian forces not fully believing in the mission; being unbelievably poor led and equipped; facing a tremendously dogged and determined opponent; being out-thought, out manoeuvred; and now - thanks to the military aid provided by the West - outgunned.

I dunno - their equipment is pretty good, and (with the proviso that we really don't know what is going on right now) what seems to have happened (a fast-moving and unexpected attack that moves quicker than the defence can coalesce, causing panic and collapse) has happened to other well-trained, well-motivated armies. The Battle of the Bulge might be an especially pertinent example here.

 

[PhilM]

It all depends what they are doing, whether this is a genuine collapse or not - there might be a further option:

4. Pull back into the expanded DPR / LPR and dig in, claiming the SMO has been successfully carried out. He could sell that - Ukraine will have suffered severe damage that will take decades to repair, the republics will have been "protected" and an offered ceasefire with gradual sanctions removal would put splits in some of the West (as leaders here could claim that Ukraine "won" but now we need to get energy prices down etc etc).

I think that is most likely, unless everything has collapsed in which case god knows.

 

[LinekersLegs]

It all depends what they are doing, whether this is a genuine collapse or not - there might be a further option:

4. Pull back into the expanded DPR / LPR and dig in, claiming the SMO has been successfully carried out. He could sell that - Ukraine will have suffered severe damage that will take decades to repair, the republics will have been "protected" and an offered ceasefire with gradual sanctions removal would put splits in some of the West (as leaders here could claim that Ukraine "won" but now we need to get energy prices down etc etc).

I think that is most likely, unless everything has collapsed in which case god knows.

Could/would Zelensky sell that to Ukrainians though?

 

[PhilM]

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

It all depends what they are doing, whether this is a genuine collapse or not - there might be a further option:

4. Pull back into the expanded DPR / LPR and dig in, claiming the SMO has been successfully carried out. He could sell that - Ukraine will have suffered severe damage that will take decades to repair, the republics will have been "protected" and an offered ceasefire with gradual sanctions removal would put splits in some of the West (as leaders here could claim that Ukraine "won" but now we need to get energy prices down etc etc).

I think that is most likely, unless everything has collapsed in which case god knows.

Possible but

A/ I don’t think Ukraine will settle for the terms of option 4.

B/ If reports are correct Ukraine is already hoovering up territory in Luhansk and Donetsk that they lost back in 2014.

The Russians look in complete disarray and everyone seems to be bugging out back to the motherland.

 

[bluestevon]

If it was between leaving Crimea and option 1 ( full mobilzation and conscription to retain it) you really think it would be option 1?

One Million percent - Crimea is regarded as Russian soil LL, the fact that my wife's mother's generation and older remember it before it was ever part of Ukraine and was Russia proper.

In reality Krushchov himself Ukranian gave it in 54 as a gift to mark a historic anniversary date, back when Ukraine and Russia where the USSR it had very little consequence doing so ofc.

Hence also why it had around 80+% ethnic Russian population.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Penis?

 

[tsubaki]

Could/would Zelensky sell that to Ukrainians though?

Coming off the back of this? Probably. If it is accompanied by a withdrawal elsewhere (Kherson / Mariupol / Zaporizhia etc) too then I think the chances go up even further.

 

[tsubaki]

One Million percent - Crimea is regarded as Russian soil LL, the fact that my wife's mother's generation and older remember it before it was ever part of Ukraine and was Russia proper.

In reality Krushchov himself Ukranian gave it in 54 as a gift to mark a historic anniversary date, back when Ukraine and Russia where the USSR it had very little consequence doing so ofc.

Hence also why it had around 80+% ethnic Russian population.

what was done to the Crimean Tatars should be mentioned also here

 

[bluestevon]

I dunno - their equipment is pretty good, and (with the proviso that we really don't know what is going on right now) what seems to have happened (a fast-moving and unexpected attack that moves quicker than the defence can coalesce, causing panic and collapse) has happened to other well-trained, well-motivated armies. The Battle of the Bulge might be an especially pertinent example here.

Perhaps as pertinent would be spring awakening to the Russians mate - the last German offensive of WW2 in the east

 

[Spadge Vernacular]