Current Affairs Ukraine

[Mutzo Nutzo]

And now Ukraine will threaten Crimea…and any ships there….

I think it’s the ships and subs Ukraine would be most interested in taking a pop at.

Don’t think they have the resources to retake Crimea. If I would expect them to to launch HIMARS/MLRS strikes against the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, but only once they’ve retaken Kherson.

 

[peteblue]

I think it’s the ships and subs Ukraine would be most interested in taking a pop at.

Don’t think they have the resources to retake Crimea. If I would expect them to to launch HIMARS/MLRS strikes against the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, but only once they’ve retaken Kherson.

Yep that’s what I was angling at….

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Yep that’s what I was angling at….

Kherson is their main focus, expect a major offensive in the Autumn. If they succeed then sure Sevastopol and the bridge between Crimea and Ukraine are realistic targets.

 

[stipe]

Kherson is their main focus, expect a major offensive in the Autumn. If they succeed then sure Sevastopol and the bridge between Crimea and Ukraine are realistic targets.

I read today the opposite, apparently US Intelligence are not expecting any major successful Ukrainian offensive and instead warning about Russians preparing new major offensive at the start of next year toward Odessa.

Anyway, even if some major Ukrainian success happen, that would be perfect excuse for Putin to proclaim general mobilization, apparently political situation is such that this "war" is still not seen seriously among peoples in major Russian cities like Moscow and St.Petersburg, so its still impossible for him to start full mobilization.

According to Russian casualties list, big part of their dead and wounded actually coming from Asiatic part of Russia like Buryati ethnic group for example, so Muscovites and likes still not losing their sons and brothers. Also men from those two self proclaimed Republics are being used as cheap cannon fodder.

 

[peteblue]

Kherson is their main focus, expect a major offensive in the Autumn. If they succeed then sure Sevastopol and the bridge between Crimea and Ukraine are realistic targets.

As they should already be. One way or another that bridge has to go. Sevastopol docks and anything in there need to be wrecked. With luck and good timing a lot of the fleet will be destroyed….

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I read today the opposite, apparently US Intelligence are not expecting any major successful Ukrainian offensive and instead warning about Russians preparing new major offensive at the start of next year toward Odessa.

Anyway, even if some major Ukrainian success happen, that would be perfect excuse for Putin to proclaim general mobilization, apparently political situation is such that this "war" is still not seen seriously among peoples in major Russian cities like Moscow and St.Petersburg, so its still impossible for him to start full mobilization.

According to Russian casualties list, big part of their dead and wounded actually coming from Asiatic part of Russia like Buryati ethnic group for example, so Muscovites and likes still not losing their sons and brothers. Also men from those two self proclaimed Republics are being used as cheap cannon fodder.

There’s a lot of noise but nothing definate from Ukraine on the Kherson oblast frontline, but they are conducting reconnaissance in force ops against a very stretched and depleted Russian front line. Also the Ukrs targeted the main road bridge across the Dnipro, this would be a key target if any offensive were to take place, therefore I would be inclined to take this as an indicator of Ukraines intentions.

Id also say that Putin’s declaration of full scale mobilisation should be viewed as a massive failure of his “special military operation” and for that reason he is unlikely imo to announce it. He has however implemented a kind of stealth mobilisation by recruiting volunteer battalions, kinda like the pals regiments in WWI. As you say these battalions are drawn from Asiatic and very rural Russian areas. From what I’ve seen they’re generally a bunch of drunken fatties with crap equipment and just a few days training.

 

[peteblue]

There’s a lot of noise but nothing definate from Ukraine on the Kherson oblast frontline, but they are conducting reconnaissance in force ops against a very stretched and depleted Russian front line. Also the Ukrs targeted the main road bridge across the Dnipro, this would be a key target if any offensive were to take Place. I would be inclined to take this as an indicator of Ukraines intentions.

Id also say that Putin’s declaration of full scale mobilisation should be viewed as a massive failure of his “special military operation” and for that reason he is unlikely imo to announce it. He has however implemented a kind of stealth mobilisation by recruiting volunteer battalions, kinda like the pals regiments in WWI. As you say these battalions are drawn from Asiatic and very rural Russian areas. From what I’ve seen they’re generally a bunch of drunken fatties with crap equipment and just a few days training.

The much vaunted Russian Army, is being embarrassed on the world stage. Putins losses will never be declared. He daren’t go for full mobilisation because the game would be up, and tbh no one would join. Gorbachev put the USSR on a path to the modern era, Putin is taking it backward. As long as the west (U.K. & USA ) keep supporting Ukraine they will eventually win. Once Putin is gone things will be sorted…..

 

[davids]

All isn't well

Zelensky Purges “Traitors” from Ukraine’s Security Service

President Volodymyr Zelensky has taken steps to remove security service personnel suspected of disloyalty or… - Jun. 09, 2022. By Aleksandra Klitina

www.kyivpost.com

 

[davids]

The much vaunted Russian Army, is being embarrassed on the world stage. Putins losses will never be declared. He daren’t go for full mobilisation because the game would be up, and tbh no one would join. Gorbachev put the USSR on a path to the modern era, Putin is taking it backward. As long as the west (U.K. & USA ) keep supporting Ukraine they will eventually win. Once Putin is gone things will be sorted…..

Any estimate of the civilian deaths that'll take? Asking for a friend.

 

[peteblue]

Any estimate of the civilian deaths that'll take? Asking for a friend.

I‘ve no idea mate. I’ve said and you know that I would want any casualties kept to an absolute minimum. But if Putin is not defeated he will do it again, with probably a lot more deaths…..

 

[catcherintherye]

All isn't well

Zelensky Purges “Traitors” from Ukraine’s Security Service

President Volodymyr Zelensky has taken steps to remove security service personnel suspected of disloyalty or… - Jun. 09, 2022. By Aleksandra Klitina

www.kyivpost.com

This is the sort of thing a tyrant does.

 

[stipe]

I‘ve no idea mate. I’ve said and you know that I would want any casualties kept to an absolute minimum. But if Putin is not defeated he will do it again, with probably a lot more deaths…..

Maybe Kherson (though i doubt) but do you really see Ukrainians conducting major counter-offensive to retake Crimea or Donbass/Luhansk? Like in those areas pretty much only Russians/their supporters live now.

Not to mention how much harder is to attack than to defend. This stuff about just seem to wildly optimistic, even if Putin is removed i utterly doubt Russia gonna ever bow to Americans like other European states, they were always on other side, no matter who ruled there, Tsarists, Communists, dictators.............

 

[peteblue]

Maybe Kherson (though i doubt) but do you really see Ukrainians conducting major counter-offensive to retake Crimea or Donbass/Luhansk? Like in those areas pretty much only Russians/their supporters live now.

Not to mention how much harder is to attack than to defend. This stuff about just seem to wildly optimistic, even if Putin is removed i utterly doubt Russia gonna ever bow to Americans like other European states, they were always on other side, no matter who ruled there, Tsarists, Communists, dictators.............

Ukraine want their territory back. Russian forces are depleted. Ukraine will go from strength to strength and with western arms versus 1950 Russian stuff will retake their land. Your support of Russia is admirable and provides another view, but tbh Ukraine will grind them down and out and even Crimea, which I’ve always said was Russian, will eventually fall…it won’t stop until Russia is forced out…..

 

[stipe]

Ukraine want their territory back. Russian forces are depleted. Ukraine will go from strength to strength and with western arms versus 1950 Russian stuff will retake their land. Your support of Russia is admirable and provides another view, but tbh Ukraine will grind them down and out and even Crimea, which I’ve always said was Russian, will eventually fall…it won’t stop until Russia is forced out…..

Nice eloquent answer, reminds me of arguing as a kid when i was in primary school, no arguments, whole answer is "just because"

I guess you are one of those "if you don't share my view you are Russian bot". No I'm not Russian bot, as a Croat i feel toward Ukraine as my fraternal nation, i got no love toward Russia whatsoever, especially because of their connection with our "loving neighbor.

 

[devogue]

This is the sort of thing a tyrant does.

How is purging Russian spies and the incompetent during the middle of a war the act of a tyrant? The main reason for Russia's success in the South is because Ukraine's military and intelligences agencies in those parts were so compromised that the Russians just strolled through. Same in many other parts of Ukraine. Like actually read the article.